1. Unit 3 – Foreign Policy Analysis

2. Foreign Policy Analysis
Foreign policy is designed to protect and promote the national interest abroad
Domestic policy is designed to protect and promote the national interest within the country

3. National Interest
Promote a nation’s
Security
Stability
Prosperity

4. National Interest Promote a nation’s Security Stability Prosperity
In the domains of
Domestic
Regional
Global

5. National Interest Promote a nation’s Security Stability Prosperity
In the domains of
Domestic
Regional
Global
Identify threats to those interests, formulate policy

6. National Interest Policy Matrix
Domestic
Regional
Global
Security
Stability
Prosperity

7. Foreign Policy Analysis
Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)
Individual Decision-maker (cognitive paradigm)
Examine the decision-maker using one of several different approaches

8. Decision-making variables

9. Decision-making variables
Affect
Decision-making variables

10. Decision-making variables
Cognition
Affect
Decision-making variables

11. Decision-making variables
Cognition
Affect
Personality
Decision-making variables

12. Decision-making variables
Cognition
Affect
Group
Personality
Decision-making variables

13. Decision-making variables
Social Milieu
Cognition
Affect
Group
Personality
Decision-making variables

14. Decision-making variables
Social Milieu
Cognition
Affect
Group
Personality
Time
Decision-making variables

15. Foreign Policy Analysis
Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)
Individual Decision-maker (cognitive paradigm)
Examine the decision-maker using one of several different approaches
This approach costly in time and resources

16. Foreign Policy Analysis
Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)
Individual Decision-maker
Bureaucratic Model
Standard operating procedures
Turf battles

17. Iraq War case

18. Foreign Policy Analysis
Differing Models of Foreign Policy Decision-making Analysis (FPDA)
Individual Decision-maker
Bureaucratic Model
Neorealist Unitary Rational Actor model
Assume rationality, assume unity
Personalities and individual quirks are epiphenomenal
Focus on relative power status

19. Unitary Rational Actor Black Box analogy

20. Greenstein’s Criteria
When is it worth the time and resources to open the black box? Remember Occam’s razor “One should not increase, beyond what is necessary, the number of entities required to explain anything.”

21. Greenstein’s Criteria
The actor occupies a strategic position
In an ambiguous or unstable situation
Where there are no clear precedents
Or spontaneous or especially effortful behavior is required.