1. Review of Previous Lecture- Approaches in IR Approach: looking at the issue/problem from a particular angle and explaining the phenomena from the same angle Classical Approach: to report and analyze current international events, issues and problems and then to speculate on these value of a work is judged by the reputation of the scholar, the authenticity and reliability of the judgment, evidence for extensive research, the clarity Scientific Approach: IR involve people and thus can be understood, analyzed, explained and predicted just like other science discipline Aims to develop theories and general principles to help in understanding international phenomena and predicting events Concerned with the method than the substance

2. Realism: anarchical world, State protect itself, by seeking power, national interests only by power, moral principles are different for individual and state Criticism: difficult to define power, difficult to measure power of a state, states cooperate, State’s action are not solely governed by seeking power, Unipolar, Arms control and disarmament, against moral principles Idealism: Human being is not bad, mutual cooperation, power politics and violence will be reformed, world would become a safe and better place, through education and international organizations, international law and reason, will form world government, but far from reality,

3. Deterrence and Limited War Dr. Fayyaz Ahmad Faize

4. Deterrence and Limited War Deterrence concept and definition Forms of Deterrent Threats Enforcing Deterrence Types of deterrence Direct deterrence Extended deterrence: Immediate deterrence General deterrence Dangers Behind Defending Protégé Limited War Examples of limited war Why limited war?

5. Deterrence and Limited War In school, teacher punishment and failure in exam is deterrence; if the student does not work, then punishment Parents sadness/anger on not working is deterrence In society, if person commit crime then punishment of imprisonment in jail is a deterrence A weaker state will not launch an attack on stronger state due to sure defeat The success of deterrence is thus measured by how much are the actions that it tries to prevent are actually stopped http://changemakers123.blogspot.com/2012/04/surviving-twelfth-problems-at- school.html

6. Deterrence concept and definition (باز رکھنا) It is measures taken by a state or an alliance of states to prevent another state from doing a hostile action In foreign affairs, deterrence is a strategy intended to prevent an adversary (enemy) from undertaking an action not yet started. The concept of deterrence can be defined as the use of threats by one party to convince another party to refrain from initiating some course of action. In IR scholarship, a policy of deterrence generally refers to threats of military retaliation directed by the leaders of one country to the leaders of another in an attempt to prevent the other country from resorting to threat or use of military force in pursuit of its foreign policy goals.

7. Deterrence cont. Deterrence theory holds that nuclear weapons are intended to deter other states from attacking with their nuclear weapons, through the promise of retaliation and possibly Mutually Assured Destruction(MAD). Throughout the Cold War, the US constantly worried about the possibility of the USSR attacking Western Europe. The problem was that in conventional armaments, the Red Army was much stronger A general war over Western Europe almost invariably meant that the U.S. would have to resort to nuclear weapons. The Americans could say “If you ever attack Western Europe, we shall fight back with all we’ve got including nukes.”

8. http://media.nara.gov/stillpix/330-cfd/1983/DN-SC-83-07132.jpeg

9. Deterrence cont. It should be clear, however, that policies of deterrence in international politics can include both military and non-military threats that are intended to prevent both military and non- military courses of action by other states Deterrence theory gained popularity as a military strategy during the cold war with regard to the use of nuclear weapons. http://rbth.com/articles/2010/10/28/from_nuclear_deterrence_universal_security05073.html http://nuclearrisk.wordpress.com/2011/03/28/how-risky-is-a-nuclear-doomsday-machine/

10. Forms of Deterrent Threats 1.Deterrent threats can be military (use of nuclear weapons, air strikes, bombarding coastal area, hitting strategic sites, no fly zone etc.) 2.diplomatic (e.g. recall of ambassadors, breaking diplomatic relations, expelling Diplomats etc.) 3.economic (e.g. denying loans, freezing bank accounts, trade embargo, blockade) 4.Cultural (e.g. boycotting an event such as Olympic Games).

11. Situation of India and Pakistan India has larger army than Pakistan Possesses superiority in conventional weapons Pakistan Nuclear tests in 1998 Now Nuclear weapon of Pakistan is a deterrence against India’s expansionist design India offered Pakistan to sign for not using nuclear weapons in case of a war Pakistan’s No: Nuclear Weapons is a deterrence and can be used for territorial integrity http://www.timelinepakistan.com/pakistan-is-nuclear-power-five-successful-tests-at- chaghi/

12. Enforcing Deterrence Deterrence aims to persuade the opponent not to initiate action. The demand is made, the consequences of acting are explained if the opponent “crosses the line drawn”, then punitive action is taken Deterrence may involve the use of threat to hurt or promise to reward A threat is a pledge to impose costs if the opponent acts contrary to one’s wishes. A promise is a pledge to provide benefits to the opponent if he acts in accordance with other’s wishes. Carrot and Stick Policy

13. Reward & Threat https://erakablog.wordpress.com/2013/06/24/the-carrot-or-the-stick/ https://www.flickr.com/photos/davegray/6416285269/

14. Both are Costly- Threat and War Both can cause change in behavior However, both threats and promises are costly to the one making them Threats are costly if the player fails (opponent disobeys) And promises are costly, if the plays wins (opponent obeys) Example: Suppose US wishes to compel North Korea to abandon their nuclear program Threat is cutting off economic aid, limited air strikes on the power plants Promise is reward to invest in the country, give economic aid, build other plants Deterrence is conservative: it seeks to protect the status quo.

15. Types of deterrence i. Direct deterrence: The defender issues a deterrence threat that prevents the challenger from attacking her. During the Cold War, both the U.S. and the USSR engaged in direct deterrence with respect to each other and thus status quo was maintained; Pakistan Nuclear weapons against India

16. Summary Deterrence concept and definition Enforcing Deterrence: Threat and Reward Types of deterrence: Direct deterrence,