1. Technological Evolution Alexandre Lomovtsev CS575 – Spring 2010 CSULA

2. Background Ray Kurzweil The Age of Spiritual Machines When computers exceed human intelligence (1999) The Singularity is Near When humans transcend biology (2005)

3. Ray Kurzweil Skills optical character recognition (OCR) text-to-speech synthesis speech recognition technology electronic keyboard instruments

4. Ray Kurzweil Current occupation predicting the future of AI and the human race obtaining immortality Singularitarian Skills optical character recognition (OCR) text-to-speech synthesis speech recognition technology electronic keyboard instruments

5. Ray’s Predictions Early 2000s Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages. Machines designed to transcribe speech into computer text allow deaf people to understand spoken words. 2010 PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet. 2019 A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere. 2029 A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain. Reverse engineering of the human brain completed. 2049 Food is commonly "assembled" by nanomachines. 2072 Picoengineering (technology on the scale of trillionths of a meter) becomes practical. 2099 Machines have attained equal legal status with humans. "Natural" humans are protected from extermination. In spite of their shortcomings and frailties, humans are respected by AI's for giving rise to the machines.

6. Ray’s Present

7. Evolution Laws The Moore's Law Doubling the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit every two years.

8. Evolution Laws The Law of Time and Chaos In a process, the time interval between salient events (i.e., events that change the nature of the process, or significantly affect the future of the process) expands along with the amount of chaos. The Law of Increasing Chaos As chaos exponentially increases, time exponentially slows down (i.e., the time interval between salient events grows longer as time passes). The Law of Accelerating Returns As order exponentially increases, time exponentially speeds up (that is, the time interval between salient events grows shorter as time passes). The Moore's Law Doubling the number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit every two years.

9. Evolution Pace Decreasing evolution pace inventing the wheel - thousands of years the telephone - a half of century to reach a quarter of population

10. Evolution Pace Technological evolution 1.evolve some capability 2.adapt it 3.use it to evolve to the next stage Decreasing evolution pace inventing the wheel - thousands of years the telephone - a half of century to reach a quarter of population

11. Evolution Pace Historical Exponential View a linear prediction algorithm is “hardwired” in our brain result = failure in “seeing” real future Technological evolution 1.evolve some capability 2.adapt it 3.use it to evolve to the next stage Decreasing evolution pace inventing the wheel - thousands of years the telephone - a half of century to reach a quarter of population

12. Disruptive technology Innovations that improve a product or service in ways that the market does not expect –lowering price –designing for a different set of consumers

13. Building AI (software)

14. Seeing patterns face recognition speech recognition gesture recognition

15. Building AI (software) Seeing patterns face recognition speech recognition gesture recognition Garik Kasparov“Deep Blue” as he said, “less than one”ability to analyze about 300,000,000 board positions on it’s decision tree

16. Strong AI (robotics) reverse engineering of the human brain replicating human brain in a hardware form

17. Building human brain Can computer have consciousness? Can consciousness be replicated or simulated by computer or another non- organic form? What is the nature of memory? How is it stored in the brain?

18. Enhancing human's abilities Ethic issues –Where is the line to distinguish human from its replica?

19. Teaching AI Two computers may be very smart, but even they need somebody (someone) to teach them how to communicate, even between themselves. “The neural net's teacher, which may be a human, a computer program, or perhaps another, more mature neural net that has already learned its lessons, rewards the student neural net when it is right and punishes it when it is wrong.”

20. Self-Teaching AI Cellular automata –Rule 110 Can we evolve AI from simple rules?

21. Runaway AI Phenomenon of rapidly escalating superintelligence. Passing the Turing test. Goal: build a computer Group: 1.100 randomly selected humans (from a shopping mall) 2.100 technically trained people (not ITs) 3.100 barely-passed the Turing test AI-machines

22. AI Toolkits Expert Systems Bayesian Nets Markov Models Neural Nets Genetic Algorithms

23. AARON - a computerized robot (and associated software), designed by Harold Cohen that creates original drawings and paintings. Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden

24. Conclusion I'm as fond of my body as anyone else, but if I can be 200 with a body of silicon, I'll take it! -Danny Hillis

25. Thank you!