1. FEBRUARY 2009

2. 2 Global economic growth: no decoupling (Real GDP, % change) 200720082009 2010 World 4.93.3 0.7 2.8 U.S. 2.01.3-1.9 2.7 Japan2.1-0.5-3.5 1.5 Euro-152.60.8-2.3 1.0 Asia x-Japan9.56.9 5.1 6.7 Canada2.70.5-1.2 2.2 British Columbia3.02.0-1.0 2.1 Québec2.61.0-1.0 2.0 Ontario2.3-0.3-1.7 2.3 (Forecast date: February 2009) Source : LBS Economics, Credit Suisse

3. 3 Financial Stress: « Ted Spread » Spread between 3-month Libor and T-Bills

4. 4 U.S. Economic Indicators

5. 5 U.S. Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP

6. 66 U.S. Economic Indicators: Dismal labour market

7. 77

8. 88

9. 99 U.S. house prices: the decline accelerates since July 2008

10. 10 U.S. housing market hits a wall

11. 11 U.S. Housing: is there a silver lining?

12. 12 Credit Bubble ?

13. 13 What about Canada?

14. 14 Too much debt?

15. 15 The Canadian economy depends on international trade

16. 16 « …that, which is not sustainable, cannot be sustained. »

17. 17 U.S. Trade Balance

18. 18 Canadian dollar sharply lower

19. 19 Canadian Trade surplus vanishes

20. 20 Central Bank Policy Rates: massive monetary easing

21. 21 Canadian banks still lending (annual % ch)

22. 22 North American unemployment rates U.S. Canada

23. 23 Year-over-year change in the rate of unemployment

24. 24 B.C. Fiscal Update

25. 25 B.C. Public Debt

26. 26 Canadian housing affordability

27. 27 Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent

28. 28 How low could markets go ?

29. 29 How low could markets go ?

30. 30 Investment conclusion 2009 Model Portfolio Equities:55% Bonds:35% Cash:10% Key points: - Be patient - Adjust portfolio - Favour US stocks (25%)

31. 31 Credit Bubble ?

32. 32 Credit Bubble ?

33. 33 Credit Bubble ?