1. Regional Air Quality Modeling: Long Range Global Change Simulations

2. How will air quality change in the future? IPCC Global Emission Scenarios: A2—Business as usual

3. Global to Regional Scale Modeling Simulate two 10-year periods  Current 1990 – 1999  Future 2045 – 2054  Sensitivity Analyses Emissions, meteorology & BC effects Land management scenarios IPCC - A2 scenario “Business as usual”

4. Current Climate Simulation: Comparison to Observations PNW: 15 Obs. Sites NMW: 20 Obs. Sites CMAQ Simulations for current decade at 36 km grid scale vs EPA AIRS monitoring data

5. Future vs Current Conditions: July Temperatures [K]USASeattlePortlandBoise Current303293.4294.8295.5 Change2.1 1.20.7 current change Daily Average Maximum

6. Seattle Daytime Meteorology average average maximum maximum curfutcurfutcurfut Temp [K]293.3+1.8301.9+1.1307.0+0.9 PBL [m]1349+2602294+1693014+434 wind speed [m s -1 ] 1.00-0.073.00-0.925.05-0.48 cloud fraction [%] 21-491-10100+0

7. Chemical Boundary Condition Changes west north West BC [ppbv] CurrentFuture %  O3O3 37.650.734.8 NO X 0.0300.04344.1 NO Y 0.2790.47068.6 VOC 1.1262.10787.1 North BC [ppbv] CurrentFuture %  O3O3 37.147.628.2 NO X 0.0240.03439.8 NO Y 0.2560.42465.6 VOC 4.3907.13862.6 up to 500 mb

8. July Emission Changes: NO X current change anthropogenic current emissions (percent change) USA [1000’s ton/day] NO 2 NO anthropogenic1.9 (61)23.8 (61) biogenic0 (0)4.0 (2)

9. July Emission Changes: VOC current change biogenic current emissions (percent change) USA [1000’s tonC/day] VOC anthropogenic32.9 (85) biogenic160.1 (-38)

10. Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity simulations for five July’s: current met, current BC’s, current emissions: CUR future met, future BC’s, future emissions: FUT future met, current BC’s, current emissions: MET current met, future BC’s, current emissions: BC current met, current BC’s, future emissions: EMIS

11. BC-CUR (6.6 ppbv)MET-CUR (1.4 ppbv) FUT-CUR (10.4 ppbv)EMIS-CUR (4.2 ppbv) CUR (70.1 ppbv) Results: O 3 95th percentile

12. FUT-CUR: 257% / 69% BC-CUR: 113% / 54% EMIS-CUR: 72% / 27% MET-CUR: 24% / 10% Results: 80 ppbv exceedences CUR: 1435 / 1726 # of U.S. grids with at least one grid hour where 8-hr O 3 > 80 ppbv # of U.S. grid hours/day where 8-hr O 3 > 80 ppbv

13. PNW 8-hr Average O 3 Distributions Seattle PortlandBoise

14. CUR: 20.7 μg m -3 Results: 1-hr PM 2.5 95th percentile FUT-CUR: +5.7 BC-CUR: +0.1 EMIS-CUR: +10.0 MET-CUR: -2.9

15. CUR: 266 / 1107 Results: 24-hr PM 2.5 35 μg/m 3 exceedences FUT-CUR: 400% / 64% BC-CUR: 3% / 0% EMIS-CUR: 1117% / 163% MET-CUR: -83% / -71%

16. Results: Daily Maximum 24-hr PM 2.5

17. Land Management Scenario: Widespread Use of Tree Plantations July Isoprene Emission Capacity (30 o C) Current Future Future with Plantations

18. Changes in 8-hr ozone concentrations for enhanced tree plantations in the future

19. Summary Jump to the Future: O3 increases of 5 to 10 ppbv significant increases in occurrences above 80 ppbv PM2.5 significant increases--5.7 ug/m 3 above 20 ug/m 3 currently Large increase in number of PM2.5 exceedences of new 24 hr standard Sensitivity Analyses: future O3 changes mainly due to changes in chemical BC and US anthropogenic emissions Increases in BVOC emissions due to climate change are offset by reduction in forested areas Enhanced plantation scenario for carbon sequestration could have significant AQ impact Next Steps Analyses of PNW 12 km decade simulations Further sensitivity analyses New STAR grant focused on uncertainty and ensemble simulations RGI Deposition Study analysis of 12 km current/future decade simulations for N, S, O3 deposition Analysis of AIRPACT-3 long term 2004 evaluation run for N, S, O3, and Hg deposition

20. Collaborators & Support Collaborating research groups UW: Clifford Mass and Eric Salathe NCAR: Alex Guenther and Christine Wiedinmyer USDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim Larkin USDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill Funding sources US EPA STAR grant (RD830962010)