1. The Puget Sound Regional Environmental Prediction System

2. The Big Questions: 1. Can we use atmospheric models to simulate and forecast local weather features? 2. Can we create an integrated regional environmental modeling system for research and prediction by coupling preexisting models and using all operational data assets?

4. The Atmospheric Model: MM5 The Penn. State/NCAR mesoscale model V3.5 (MM5). A full physics primitive equation numerical prediction model, it is being run: twice a day at 36/12/4 km horizontal grid spacing. 38 levels forced by the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) run 0 to 72h for 36/12 0 to 48 h for 4 km Twice a day at 36/12km grid spacing forced by the NCEP Eta Model (available sooner)

9. Some Comments A 4-km model does NOT resolve 4-km scale features…more like 20-25 km. There are major issues (problems) in the physical parameterizations that we are actively working to improve, such as: –Moist physics –Land surface and boundary-layer physics –Radiation schemes

10. 24-h MM5 Precip. Bias Scores over W. WA

11. Timing Error Example

17. Tahoma: A 30 processor SUN ES 6500 with 4 GB Memory

18. Ensemble: a 20 processor athlon cluster

19. WRF Cluster: The Most Powerful Computer: 32-Processor Athlon Linux Cluster

20. The “Audience” for PNW MM5 Products Continues to Increase

21. Current MM5 System Model forecasts are verified against all regional observations Model graphics are available on the web Model grids are shipped to some consortium members (e.g., NWS)

22. A Vision of an Integrated Regional Modeling System Output from the MM5 is now being fed into a number of modeling and diagnostic systems: Distributed Hydrological Model for Western Washington (PRISM Major Support) Calgrid Air Quality Model Land Surface Model for Surface Temperature Prediction Smoke, Ventilation, and Fire Guidance Transportation Information System And hopefully soon will be integrated with others (e.g. Puget Sound)

24. Terrain - 150 meter aggregated from 30 meter resolution DEM Land Cover - 19 classes aggregated from over 200 GAP classes Soils - 3 layers aggregated from 13 layers (31 different classes); variable soil depth from 1-3 meters Stream Network - based on 0.25 km 2 source area

25. DHSVM Distributed Hydrological Prediction System

26. Calgrid Air Quality Prediction System

29. Washington State DOT Traveler Information System

31. U.S. Forest Service Smoke and Fire Management System

33. Ventilation Index

34. U.S. Forest Service MM5 grids are sent to the field for running Eulerian and Lagrangian smoke plume/dispersion models. MM5 output used for fire fighting operations.

35. Military Applications The NW MM5 is now the main source of regional forecasts for Navy and Air Force operations at Whidbey NAS and McChord Air Force Base, as well as the Everett Carrier homeport.

36. Ensemble Forecasting A major push has been made toward ensemble forecasting using the MM5 because of initial condition and physics uncertainty. The goal is to provide probabilistic predictions, including forecasts of model skill. The MM5 is now being run at 36/12 km resolution with approximately 25 different initializations and lateral boundary conditions, as well as varying model physics.

37. Regional Ensemble Configuration Makes use of the differing initializations (and boundary conditions) from major operational NWP centers (e.g., NCEP, Navy, Canadian, UKMET, Australian, Taiwanese, etc) and varying physics options. Early results very encouraging (e.g., using ensembles to predict forecast skill)

42. Relating Forecast Skill and Model Spread Mean Absolute Error of Wind Direction is Far Less When Spread is Low

43. Regional Observational Database Since the mid-1980’s, have collected all available data networks in the Pacific NW Data collected and quality controlled in real- time The database is used for verification of the regional MM5 forecasts, regional application, and local research

45. Puget Sound

46. Research on Physical Parameterizations IMPROVE: To improve moist physics in mesoscale models using data from the Pacific Northwest. Multi-investigator project. Data from a major field experiment PBL Parameterization Project: Evaluation and improvement of MM5 PBL schemes. Sponsored by the Forest Service

47. Olympic Mts. British Columbia Washington Cascade Mts. Oregon California Orographic Study Area Washington Oregon Coastal Mts. S-Pol Radar Range Santiam Pass OSA ridge crest Cascade Mts. < 100 m 100-500 m 500-1000 m 1000-1500 m 1500-2000 m 2000-3000 m > 3000 m Terrain Heights Portland Salem Newport Medford UW Convair-580 Airborne Doppler Radar S-Pol Radar BINET Antenna NEXRAD Radar Wind Profiler Rawinsonde Legend Ground Observer 0 100 km WSRP Dropsondes Columbia R. Rain Gauge Sites in OSA Vicinity Santiam Pass SNOTEL sites CO-OP rain gauge sites 50 km Orographic Study Area S-Pol Radar Range Olympic Mts. S-Pol Radar Range Westport 90 nm (168 km) Offshore Frontal Study Area Paine Field Univ. of Washington Area of Multi- Doppler Coverage Special Raingauges PNNL Remote Sensing Site Two IMPROVE observational campaigns: I. Offshore Frontal Study (Wash. Coast, Jan-Feb 2001) II. Orographic Study (Oregon Cascades, Nov-Dec 2001)

48. Should we go to higher resolution over Puget Sound?

49. Modeling Winds in the Columbia Gorge Strongest winds are at the exit Portland Troutdale Cascade Locks

50. 4-km grid spacing 1.3 km grid spacing

51. 4-km grid spacing 1.3 km grid spacing

52. Mesoscale Climate Forecasting Computer power is now available to run at high resolution (12km) for 5-10 years Driven by GCM climate predictions, could gain insights into local implications of global warming.