1. Miljøbelastning med anthropogene stoffer Eksempel „bly“, emissioner og deponering i Europa, 1958- 1995 Hans von Storch, Charlotte Hagner, Mariza Costa-Cabral Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geofysisk Afdeling, Niels Bohr Institutet, København, 16. Oktober 2002

2. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Motivation 1.Prototypical example of a reconstructing of flow and deposition of anthropogenic matter on the regional scale (50 - 1000 km). 2.Lead is also chosen because of the highly variable emissions, with an unabated increase until about 1970 and several political regulations in the 1970s and 1980s, which ended with the out-phasing of lead in gasoline.

3. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Lead emission Total gasoline sale Consumption of gasoline in Germany (mio.litres) and associated lead emissions (tons) Political regulation in 1971, 1975 and 1985.

4. General overview of lead pollution Source: Umweltbundesamt 2001 Atmospheric Lead Concentration in German Urban and Rural Areas 1970-1989

5. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Data source: Umweltprobenbank, Research Center Karlsruhe, 1999 Lead concentration in annual beech leaves in German forest areas 1989-1997

6. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Data source: Pb – monitoring of the German Environmental Ministry (1998) and Landesamt Nordrhein –Westfalen(1998). Atmospheric Lead Concentrations in German Conurbation and Rural Areas 1986 –1995

7. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Data source: Umweltprobenbank 1999b Lead concentrations (  g/g) in spruce (Picea abies) sprouts and poplar (Populus nigra) leaves in urban areas in Saarland, 1985-1996

8. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Lead concentration (mg/kg) in Blue Mussels (Mytilus Edulis) in the North Sea, 1982-1997 Data source: Ministry of Ecology of Niedersachsen 1999 * Sample stations: Bantsbalje ( 53°34’/ 7°01’); Borkum ( 53°35.4’/ 6°47.84’); Cuxhaven Leitdamm ( 53°53.05’/ 8°41.03’); Elmshörn Rinne ( 53°29.05’/ 6°54.00’); Mellumbalje ( 53°41.09’/ 8 °08.08’)

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10. European Gasoline Lead Content Regulations Initial Regulations Germany –1971, the ”German Environmental Programm” was passed Increasing automobile emissions were considered to be a latent danger for humans, animals and plants –1972, legal max. lead content of gasoline: 0.4 g Pb/l –1976, legal max. lead content of gasoline: 0.15 g Pb/l European Union –1978, the first EU-regulation of lead in gasoline was adopted: – Gasoline with more than 0.4 g Pb/l was banned on EU-markets Further Regulations Germany –1984, unleaded gasoline was introduced on the German market, complemented by tax incentives – Justified by widespread damage to forests due to NOx, CO and CxHy –1988, low-emission cars become obligatory European Union – 1989, obligation to offer super-unleaded gasoline in all member states – lead in gasoline should be reduced to max. 0.15 g Pb/l Institut für Küstenforschung I f K

11. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Data source: German Environmental Ministry,1998 Annual Lead Emissions in Different EU–Nations 1980 –1996

12. Sources of lead emissions, 1955-1995 Costa-Cabral, 2001

13. Estimated lead emissions (from Pacyna and Pacyna, 2000) 1955 1995 1955 1975

14. Atmospheric concentration

15. deposition Calculated depositions 1995

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17. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K model estimate

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19. Chemical / ecological dimension

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27. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Conclusions 1.Past political and economic evolutions may be assessed quantitatively by a retrospective analysis. Scenarios of environmental impact of possible future socio-economic developments are possible to be constructed. 2.Lead reduction in gasoline was successful in reducing the presence of lead in the atmosphere, in terrestrial ecosystems and in men. 3.In aquatic ecosystems the increase of concentrations has been halted at a level well above the natural level. (How long is the residence time in sediment?)

28. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Data source: Koopmann et al.1994 Lead Concentrations (  g/kg) in Surface Sediments (0-10 cm depth) of the Wadden Sea

29. Institut für Küstenforschung I f K Data source: Schwedhelm & Irion 1985 Lead Concentrations in a Marsh Sediment Core (≤2m)

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31. Lead Use in Gasoline in 1996 Country Western Europe Lead Content in Gasoline (g/l) Market Share of Leaded Gasoline (%) Austria00 (since 1993) Belgium0.01326 Denmark00 Finland00 France0.01338 Germany0.0133 Greece0.4 (0.15 in Athens)67 (since 1995) Iceland0.01315 Ireland0.01335 Italy0.01356 Luxembourg0.01318 Netherlands0.01314 Norway0.0132 Portugal0.461 Spain0.477 Sweden00 (since 1994) Switzerland0.01313 Turkey0.482 United Kingdom0.01333 Country Central and Eastern Europe Lead Content in Gasoline (g/l) Market Share of Leaded Gasoline (%) Bulgaria0.1595 Croatia0.670 Czech Republic0.1545 Hungary0.1536 Moldova0.4100 Poland0.1530 Romania0.694 Russian Federation0.650 Slovak Republic00 (since 1995) Source: modified from World Bank 1997

32. Source: World Bank (1997), Heinzow et al. (1998) Blood Lead Levels in Different Cities in 1980s and 1990s US- scientists expect health dangers for children above a blood lead level of 100  g/l. German experts are convinced there can be health dangers above 150  gPb/l. blood lead level (  g/l) years of sampling