1. Sustainable Transport: illusion or necessity? Bert van Wee Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management

2. What is sustainability, what is sustainable transport? Sustainability: Conflict between generations Balance between economy, ecology and social aspects Position transport: Equal share Cost-effectiveness Maximum welfare, inter-sectoral

4. Transport emissions and health impacts Table 1: share of transport in emissions in the EU, 2000 EU25EU15 SO 2 45 NO x 6062 CO5559 HC (excluding CH 4 )33 CO 2 2325 Source: Eurostat (http://europa.eu.int/newcronos/)http://europa.eu.int/newcronos/ 1 kg of transport emission: more impacts than average CO2: excluding international aviation and shipping

5. Dominant relationships between determinants for environmental impact of transport and policy instruments VolumeModal splitTechnologyUse of vehicles/ efficiency Behaviour Restrictions***** Prices***** Land-use planning**** Marketing* Information and** Infrastructure****

6. Trends, assuming demographic and economic trends ‘as expected’: Car use: increase Use of lorries: big increase Use of planes: huge increase Unless: availability of fuels, climate change

7. Technology: Traditional pollutants: much available, penetrating in vehicle fleets CO2: potential by far not used Noise: potential by far not used Congestion: pricing technology (EU), ADAS+

8. Environment: CO2: increase (despite Kyoto) Other pollutants: decrease, but fast enough? Noise: increase, despite technical possibilities Social effects and effects on economy: accessibility, safety Increase in congestion for at least 2 decades, unless pricing policy Is congestion best accessibility indicator? Probably not! Safety: decrease in fatalities, but acceptable?

9. Possibilities for changes towards sustainability: Traditional pollutants: Problems will be solved, if necessary by technology only, if….. Noise: Technology dominant if effective policy is implemented. Needs change in EU process. CO2: probably most difficult: Transport is ‘expensive’, though debatable Impact on performance of cars and / or on behavior

10. Accessibility: it this a sustainability issue? No or hardly inter-generation aspects What is ‘right’ balance? Equity: people without cars Paradigm shift needed? Indicators, modes, interpretation Safety: as accessibility Additional safety measures cost-effective

11. Policy implications Long term vision, currently lacking (though in nota verkeersemissies and nepp4: transition) Welfare economic approach: shift to environment and safety? Dependency on fossil fuels Other vision on accessibility

12. Overall conclusion: sustainable transport is a necessity, but in some respects (at least CO2) an illusion for at least another decade. Questions, discussion?