1. Alternatives to Gasoline Possibilities and Capacities

2. The Scale of the Problem is Large 400 million gallons of gasoline per day $1 Billion dollars per day (mostly to foreign economies) Total vehicle miles driven per year increases 2-3% each year Average fuel economy remains at 20-25 mpg. Typical American uses 500-600 gallons per year at a cost of 1000-2000 $ The China Lever Arm is important

3. Total Yield and Capacity US annual consumption is 200 billion gallons Biodiesel: 7.3 lbs of soybeans to produce one gallon Maximum likely production is 2 billion gallons  1% of consumption Can Ethanol production do better? Ethanol comes from two primary fuel stocks: Corn (for grain) and general biomass for cellulosic

4. Energy Gains Net energy ratio = about 1.5 by most current estimates and has improved over time: But Recent Optimism is Impressive!

5. 50% increase in efficiency since 1990 translates to positive net energy ratio

6. Total Possible Yield 10 kg of corn = 1 gallon of ethanol 10 kg of corn = 1 gallon of ethanol 1 ideal acre of corn = 850 gallons  but we need 200 billion gallons annually 1 ideal acre of corn = 850 gallons  but we need 200 billion gallons annually 1 practical acre = 2/3 of an ideal acre 1 practical acre = 2/3 of an ideal acre Required acreage is 350 million acres of crop land Required acreage is 350 million acres of crop land 450 million acres in the US so 78% needed for this enterprise  not feasible 450 million acres in the US so 78% needed for this enterprise  not feasible 5 million acres in Oregon 5 million acres in Oregon

7. Use Another Feed Stock What about Cellulosic Ethanol: Cellulosic ethanol can be produced from a wide variety of cellulosic biomass feedstocks including agricultural plant wastes (corn stover, cereal straws, sugarcane bagasse), plant wastes from industrial processes (sawdust, paper pulp) and energy crops grown specifically for fuel production, such as switchgrass.What about Cellulosic Ethanol: Cellulosic ethanol can be produced from a wide variety of cellulosic biomass feedstocks including agricultural plant wastes (corn stover, cereal straws, sugarcane bagasse), plant wastes from industrial processes (sawdust, paper pulp) and energy crops grown specifically for fuel production, such as switchgrass.

8. 100 Billion Gallons by 2050 Current average yields are five dry tons per acre.Current average yields are five dry tons per acre. With improved breeding techniques this could increase to 15 dry tons per acreWith improved breeding techniques this could increase to 15 dry tons per acre 88 Million acres is then needed to produce the equivalent of 100 billion gallons of gasoline88 Million acres is then needed to produce the equivalent of 100 billion gallons of gasoline Currently 70 million acres of cropland are devoted to growing soybeans for animal feed; switch grass has more animal protein per acre.Currently 70 million acres of cropland are devoted to growing soybeans for animal feed; switch grass has more animal protein per acre.

9. Requirements/Expectations 1 billion dollar annual investment in research and testing needed to get to 15 tons per acre 1 billion dollar annual investment in research and testing needed to get to 15 tons per acre 0.6 – 0.9 $ production cost per gallon by 2015 (compared to about $1.30 now for crude oil) 0.6 – 0.9 $ production cost per gallon by 2015 (compared to about $1.30 now for crude oil) If fuel economy improves to 50 mpg by 2030 and if we devote 10% of available crop land to grow fuel on then just about ½ of our fuel requirements will be met with ethanol  This is Feasible if we start investing now If fuel economy improves to 50 mpg by 2030 and if we devote 10% of available crop land to grow fuel on then just about ½ of our fuel requirements will be met with ethanol  This is Feasible if we start investing now Potential large creation of jobs to support this effort Potential large creation of jobs to support this effort