1. Transportation Development Division Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Part 1: Statewide Model Part 2: MetroScope Part 3: Land Use Scenario Developer (LUSDR) Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium May 1, 2007

2. Transportation Development Division Model Features Model NameActivity ModeledIntegrationModel Type Statewide Model Land Use-Transport -Economy Fully Integrated Equilibrium & Simulation MetroScopeLand Use-TransportConnectedEquilibrium LUSDRLand Use-TransportConnectedStochastic

3. Transportation Development Division Oregon Integrated Land Use and Transportation Models Prepared for the Oregon MPO Consortium Presented by Becky Knudson ODOT Transportation Development Division May 1, 2007 Part 1: Statewide Model

4. Transportation Development Division Why a Statewide Model Provide forecast of interurban and interregional traffic on state highways. –With out a statewide model, traffic forecasting can only extrapolate past growth trends. These forecasts are not very sensitive to land use and transport policies. –As the state gets more populous, the amount of interurban travel becomes more substantial. There is a need, particularly in the I-5 corridor, to simulate the effects of present and potential land use and transport policies.

5. Transportation Development Division Modeling in Oregon Coordinated through Oregon Modeling Steering Committee (OMSC) OMSC established to: –Realize gains from shared knowledge –Avoid duplication of effort –Combine resources to benefit new modeling efforts Good progress in Travel Demand modeling Time to turn more attention to Land Use modeling

6. Transportation Development Division Why is Land Use Modeling Important? Land use in most transport models is an input into a model –Must rely on separate forecast for land use and entered into model Modeling land use: –Reduces land use input data burden –Provides more objectivity and consistency –Captures redistribution/density of land uses in response to changes –Is more theoretically consistent

7. Transportation Development Division Why Integrated Land Use Transport Models? Produce future land use forecasts that account for transportation Analyze cumulative and indirect effects of proposed transportation projects Evaluate compliance with land use Explore transportation opportunities Evaluate economic effects of policies Facilitate integrated land use and transportation planning

8. Transportation Development Division Why Use an Integrated Economic, Transportation & Land Use Model Transport systems affect economic production and the distribution of land use and vise versa. The potential impacts of transport system changes on land use is a concern Land use policy may be strategic manner in which to address transportation issues Economic, land use and transportation relationships are complex. Predicting outcomes of proposed policies and/or projects involves huge computational burden. Computer models are necessary tools for useful analysis.

9. Transportation Development Division Gen1 ( 1999 ) –Proof of Concept –Large analysis zones –Few industry sectors –Only two land use types –Simple network –Truck freight only Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Land Use – Transport - Economic Model

10. Transportation Development Division Oregon’s Statewide Integrated Land Use – Transport - Economic Model Transitional Model (Oregon2TM) –More detail –Modular Equilibrium modules Simulation modules –Remains a regional model, does not include urban detail –Consistent with MPO models

11. Transportation Development Division County Boundaries (36)

12. Transportation Development Division (28)

13. Transportation Development Division Oregon2TM Beta Zones (519)

14. Transportation Development Division Oregon2TM Alpha Zones (2,950)

15. Transportation Development Division Oregon2TM Alpha Zones

16. Transportation Development Division RVMPO Zones Compared to OR2TM RVMPO zones = 744 OR2TM alpha zones = 154 OR2TM beta zones = 23

17. Transportation Development Division Statewide Model Relationship to MPO Models Provide alternative population and economic forecasts for MPO model area Provide intercity travel data for use in MPO external model Provide information for major improvements that affect travel beyond MPO boundary (e.g., Salem Third Bridge) Provide information to assist with future land use allocation for MPOs with no land use model

18. Transportation Development Division Structure of Oregon2 Transitional Model

19. Transportation Development Division Policy Analysis Willamette Valley Bridge Limitations Study Newberg-Dundee EIS OTP

20. Transportation Development Division By 2050 Willamette Valley population will increase from 2.3 million to nearly 4 million Governor initiated a big- picture brain-storming on alternative futures for Oregon’s most populous region as well as an agriculturally important area. Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures

21. Transportation Development Division Project Approach Help decision-makers understand: –How different land use and transportation policies are likely to affect land use patterns and state highway congestion –Sensitivities of growth patterns and highway congestion to different land use and transportation policies

22. Transportation Development Division Findings Supply of land affects price and therefore where people and jobs locate What transportation improvements and where they are made affects where people and jobs locate How people pay for transportation affects where they locate

23. Transportation Development Division The 2001 Legislature asked: “If a new freeway is constructed in Central or Eastern Oregon, will it divert traffic and development from I-5 in the Willamette Valley?” US 97 US 385 Legislative Directive to Study a New Freeway in Eastern Oregon

24. Transportation Development Division Simple Answer: No. Analysis revealed: –New highway would increase speed and reduce travel time from border to border –May benefit Washington or California more than Eastern or Central Oregon –Where access to the Willamette Valley improves, the larger market attracts more growth to Valley Better question: –“What can we do to divert traffic and development from I-5 and the Willamette Valley to Eastern and Central Oregon?” Central/Eastern Oregon Freeway

25. Transportation Development Division Over 500 Oregon bridges identified in 2001 as structurally deficient. Cost to repair/replace $4.7 billion. The statewide model used to evaluate alternative bridge investment strategies. Final investment plan based on bridge cost, economic costs, community/regional impacts. Oregon Bridge Deficiency Analysis

26. Transportation Development Division Findings Model results helped to clearly identify the problem & develop a solution Analysis showed no immediate crisis, but predicted large losses of future jobs and reduced production if problem is not addressed Analysis revealed the regional and industry impacts, which identified constituent issues ODOT changing initial approach “Fix Worst First” to “Corridor Analysis” implemented through a staged repair and replacement program

27. Transportation Development Division ODOT Recommendation $2.5B, initial 10-year strategy to address $4.7B bridge problem Address detour routes before interstate construction Over 90 percent of the statewide economic benefit of repairing all bridges gained for nearly half the cost

28. Transportation Development Division EIS for proposed bypass of two towns on a major recreation route and commuter- shed of Portland The model was used to examine the potential effects on growth of population, jobs and travel. Proposed Highway Bypass Induced Growth Analysis

29. Transportation Development Division Modeling/Analysis Conclusions A bypass would likely: Stimulate economic growth in McMinnville Support greater travel for all purposes Have minimal effects on smaller communities in Yamhill County Commuter effects vary with a bypass: Increased commuting by residents west of McMinnville to Portland east of McMinnville Commuters east of McMinnville shift commute from Portland to McMinnville

30. Transportation Development Division Modeling/Analysis Conclusions System wide: Total number of auto trips the same for No Action and Bypass Total hours of travel the same for No Action and Bypass Total miles traveled greater with the Bypass

31. Transportation Development Division Questions? Becky Knudson rebecca.a.knudson@odot.state.or.us 503.986.4113 Transportation Planning Analysis Unit ODOT Planning Section 555 13 th ST. NE Salem, OR 97301

32. Transportation Development Division Summary of Model Features Model NameActivity ModeledIntegrationModel Type Statewide Model Land Use-Transport -Economy Fully Integrated Equilibrium & Simulation MetroScopeLand Use-TransportConnectedEquilibrium LUSDRLand Use-TransportConnectedStochastic