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Romanian Banking System Robert C. Rekkers CEO, Banca Transilvania 27-28 March 2007
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Contents Developments Macroeconomic Indicators Banking System
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Developments
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Current account deficit: 2005: EUR 6.9 bn. (8.7% of GDP); 75.6% covered by FDI; 2006 estimate: EUR 10% of GDP Fiscal balance: 2005: 0.8% of GDP 2006 estimate: 1% of GDP
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Developments in 2005 - 2006 International reserves at a record level (FCY including gold): 2005: EUR 18.3 bn.; forex reserves EUR 16.8 bn. 2006: EUR 22.9 bn.; forex reserves EUR 21.3 bn. Rating agencies upgraded Romania’s rating: Fitch upgraded Romania’s foreign currency rating from BBB- to BBB with stable outlook on August 31, 2006 Moody's upgraded Romania’s rating for short and long term borrowings both in FCY and in lei at Baa3/P-3, with stable outlook, in October 2006
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Macroeconomic Indicators
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annual percentage change Source: NBR, NIS
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Public debt was 20.1% of GDP in 2005 (domestic debt: 5.6% of GDP; external debt: 14.4% of GDP) Source: NBR, NIS EUR billion *) November 2006
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Source: Ministry of Public Finance, NIS percent
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Banking System
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Banking System in Romania Source: NBR
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Banking Sector in Romania (2006) Features: 37 banks (of which 6 foreign bank branches) 61% of banking assets held by top five banks Solvency ratio: 17.9% Source: NBR
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Banking Sector in Romania
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Banking Sector Concentration (Top 5 commercial banks) December 2005 RON billionEUR billion% of total banking system Assets75.420.558.8 Loans37.010.161.2 Deposits52.414.357.0 Own capital8.92.455.1 September 2006 Assets92.526.261.1 Loans54.615.564.5 Deposits61.517.458.8 Own capital10.63.054.4 Source: NBR
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Conclusions The evolution of macroeconomic ratios show a positive outlook and an upward trend of the whole economy; Romania successfully achieved the targets set for its accession to UE marking an important turnaround point for its future development; Competition sharpened, especially in the banking system, but there is still place for growth, considering the low banking penetration in GDP; new important international players announced their intentions to step in;
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