1. Outline Regression (excel demo) Important point: which is x and which is y? Regression (as lecture notes) Other methods of regression than in lecture notes “Minimize sum of error” “Excel plot” Correlation coefficient Decision analysis Analytical method – not commonly used alone – Fist order derivative Decision tree method

2. Soil Strength Example Dam Soil 6 24 Histogram 0 0.5 1.01.5 2.0

3. Regression (as lecture notes)

5. “Minimize sum of error”

6. “Excel plot”

7. Correlation coefficient To estimate , the correlation coefficient between X and Y

8. Decision tree method 1.Pessimistic  Minimize max loss  Install 2.Optimistic  Maximize max gain  Not Install ProbabilityConsequence

9. 3. Maximum EMV (Expected Monetary Value) E(I) = 0.1x(-2000)+0.9x(-2000) = -2000 E(II) = 0.1x(-10000)+0.9x(0) =-1000

11. E[L|CN]?