1. Technological_Evolution.zip Alexandre Lomovtsev CS575 – Spring 2010 CSULA

2. Concepts Evolution pace time interval between significant events in evolution decreasing evolution pace Technological evolution evolve some capability adapt it use it to evolve to the next stage Historical Exponential View a linear prediction algorithm is "hardwired" in our brain result = failure in "seeing" real future Disruptive technology Significant improvement of existing products or services

3. Evolution Laws The Law of Time and Chaos The Law of Increasing Chaos The Law of Accelerating Returns The Moore's Law

4. Building AI (software) Main goal – teach a machine seeing patterns face recognition speech recognition gesture recognition Strong AI (robotics) reverse engineering of the human brain replicating human brain in a non-organic form

5. Teaching AI teaching by human teaching by another AI (neural net) self-teaching AI Runaway AI phenomenon - rapidly escalating superintelligence

6. Building human brain - replication consciousness - the nature of human brain memory - ethic issues distinguishing human from its replica

7. Ray’s Predictions Early 2000s Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages. Machines designed to transcribe speech into computer text allow deaf people to understand spoken words. 2010 PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet. 2019 A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere. 2029 A $1,000 personal computer is 1,000 times more powerful than the human brain. Reverse engineering of the human brain completed. 2049 Food is commonly "assembled" by nanomachines. 2072 Picoengineering (technology on the scale of trillionths of a meter) becomes practical. 2099 Machines have attained equal legal status with humans. "Natural" humans are protected from extermination. In spite of their shortcomings and frailties, humans are respected by AI's for giving rise to the machines.

8. AI Toolkits Expert Systems Bayesian Nets Markov Models Neural Nets Genetic Algorithms

9. References Books: Ray Kurzweil, “The Age of Spiritual Machines”, When computers exceed human intelligence (1999) Ray Kurzweil, “The Singularity is Near”, When humans transcend biology (2005) Online resources: http://www.KurzweilAI.net