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Generating scenarios of salmon recovery: what are the mechanisms linking climate variability to marine survival? E. Logerwell 1, N. Mantua 2, P. Lawson 3, R. Francis 4 and V. Agostini 4 1 Alaska Fisheries Science Center 2 Univ. Washington School of Marine Affairs/Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean 3 Northwest Fisheries Science Center 4 Univ. Washington School of Aquatic and Fisheries Science
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Salmon and Climate Mantua, et al. 1997 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index above average below average
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Oregon Production Index (OPI) Coho Salmon
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OPI Coho Survival
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Previous studies link coho survival to... Upwelling (Nickelson, 1986) Sea surface temperature (Cole, 2000) Spring transition (Ryding & Skalski, 1999) Spring and winter ocean conditions (Koslow, et al. in press)
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Select variables that represent local nearshore conditions GAM to understand effects of ocean processes on survival Examine linkages between model variables and climate indices Our study of coho survival
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Conceptual model
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Winter (Jan-Mar) before smolt migration Spring (April-June) Winter (Jan-Mar) after smolt migration Transition
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GAM Results
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Climate linkages Indices –NPI (Aleutian Low) –PDO –ENSO 1948-1997 October-March
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NPI (Aleutian Low) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (after) Winter SST (before)
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PDO Winter SST (after) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (before)
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ENSO Winter SST (after) Spring upwelling Spring transition Winter SST (before)
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How might recovery scenarios affect salmon? Life stage? –marine survival Habitat characteristics? –winter SST, spring transition, spring upwelling Forecasts? –climate linkages between NPI, PDO and pre- smolt winter SST
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Uncertainty? Biological dimension of ocean habitat –Predators? –Prey? Climate forecasts –Natural variability (El Niño, PDO, other) –Anthropogenic change
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Alternative scenarios? Can we make a similar forecast for ocean variables (such as SST) or climate variables (such as NPI)?
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Beth Sinclair and Tonya Zepplin http://nmml.afsc.noaa.gov/AlaskaEcosystems/sslhome/Program%20Review%20Presentations/Program%20Review.htm
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