1. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Past Peak Oil: the alternatives by Manuel Collares-Pereira (Research Coordinator- INETI-DER) (Physics Professor-Tech. Univ. of Lisbon)

2. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Energy: we have a serious problem Energy – Mostly fossil fuel based ; peak oil means that oil will be ever more expensive Environment - Serious consequences, fossil fuels related: Global Warming+ other effects (city air pollution, acid rains, etc.) on local and regional scales

3. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Global Warming: different scenarios (IPCC)

4. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Energy use and per capita emmissions Emissions [ton C per capita] Population [millions] USA Rússia Japan Canadá, Austrália, New Zeland OECD Europe Others EIT Middle East China Latin America others Ásia ÁfricaIndia World average Industrialized World (1/5) Rest of the Wolrd (4/5)

5. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Energy: we have a serious problem Awareness of depletion + growing environmental impacts, should reduce fossil fuel consumption, delaying peak oil!!? NOT HAPPENING!!!

6. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Alternatives: supply side Less oil/gas: more coal! Synthetic fuels (once the cost of oil stabilize above a certain value…) Transports as usual (just more expensive) Probably: higher environmental impacts! Nuclear Energy Fission: U235- same problem; a finite resource (30/40years?) U238 (~200 times more abundant!)- R&D to be done; safety under operation; the problem of wastes Fusion: always a welcome and open possibility

7. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Alternatives: supply side Renewable Energies: solar (all forms), wind, hydro, biomass (all forms), wave, geothermal Bio fuels (direct substitution of oil) Renewables (in general): They are distributed (i.e. avoid/reduce the cost of extended and expensive distribution infrastructures; at least some of them are abundant in each and every country) In this sense, they are to energy what the mobile phones represent to communications

8. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Alternatives: new energy vectors Hydrogen : from Renewables, from Nuclear… Electric vehicles: Electricity from Renewables/Nuclear

9. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Alternatives: the demand side Traditionally, the supply driven attitude within which we live, has us consuming energy as much as possible, like any other commodity… Not sustainable: a new way… People really do not care about energy per se, but about the service that energy “provides” Excellent opportunity for a demand oriented attitude: Avoided consumption 2 examples: 1) comfort in buildings 2)Individual transportation minimized; need for displacement minimized (urban and regional planning)

10. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Alternatives: a demand driven World (cont.) rationality in energy use, energy efficiency, make a choice from several different energy forms …!

11. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Alternatives: other aspects Recycling Waste reduction (…) R&D, new ideas, possibilities, materials, etc.

12. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 Alternatives: a more fundamental change New values ; a new paradigm More time … for leisure, for family, for friends, for culture Cleaner air Less stress (…) maybe not enough!

13. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 The end of the global economy as we know it? Cheap energy is essential to the globalization of the economy! Some examples from food production: 1)U.K. imports roughly as much food as it exports, of the same type!* This will imply a steep (extra) energy price and already implies a steep emissions price! 2)One calorie of lettuce “costs” 127 calories to transport from across the Atlantic ; 66 calories, for an onion from Chile This will imply a steep (extra) energy price and already implies a steep emissions price! 3)The bottle of ketchup fabricated in Sweden: materials from Japan, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, USA; screw cap and plug, from Denmark, tomato and tomato paste from Italy; not to mention corrugated cardboard, wrapping film, ink, labels, glue… plus what it takes to be consumed in Portugal: transport, preservation (cold storage), etc. This will imply a steep (extra) energy price and already implies a steep emissions price! *Norman Church: “Why our food is so dependent on Oil?”

14. Aspo,Lisbon,May, 19-20 In conclusion We will have to move towards a much more “in situ” economy!? Deglobalization? ”in situ” will make much more (expensive energy and worrisome emissions) sense… In particular if we take into account the necessary development of the World (4/5) that use only 1/3 of all fossil fuels… In the meantime we must move towards adopting all the alternatives that were mentioned… The sooner the better! Thank you for your attention!