1. F U N D A Ç Ã O B R A S I L E I R A P A R A O D E S E N V O L V I M E N T O S U S T E N T Á V E L Mini-Symposium BIO-FUELS – SCIENTIFIC, ETHICAL AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES The Manna Center for Plant Biosciences The Emerging Biomass Economy An Overview May 15, 2007

2. 2 The Challenge Humanity is faced with the critical challenge of reducing environmental impacts of energy use and production The present energy matrix requires major changes

3. May 15, 2007 3 What Challenges Does The Current Energy Matrix Present? Confluence of critical vectors: Environmental stress Geopolitical problems Macroeconomic model What would be required: a consistent focus on environmental impacts, social problems and economic viabilities The future energy matrix requires: Increased reliance on renewable energy sources High priority for the development and deployment of new energy technologies Improved energy efficiency

4. May 15, 2007 4 Transport Emissions by Country, 1990-2030 North America Europe Pacific Transition Economies China India Other Asia Middle East Latin America Africa Source: Stern Review Report (2006)

5. May 15, 2007 5 Transport CO 2 Emissions by Mode in 2000 Source: Stern Review Report (2006)

6. May 15, 2007 6 World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Vehicular Transportation ●By substituting 36% of gasoline with ethanol by the year 2030, GHG emissions from gasoline-fueled vehicles could remain at the same level as in 2005 for avoided emissions of 1,545 million metric tons of CO 2 /year ●In Brazil, 33.7% of gasoline had already been replaced by ethanol by 2005, representing avoided emissions of 22.3 million metric tons of CO 2 /year Note: 1. GHG Emissions in the Transport Sector: 5,743 million metric tons of CO 2 or 14% of Total World Emissions** 2. Avoided emissions from biodiesel as substitute for petrodiesel could also contribute to GHG mitigation but at lower percent values * International Energy Agency projection ** Data from year 2000; Source: WRI 2004

7. May 15, 2007 7 First Generation Biofuels Ethanol Currently made from two types of crops: sugar-producing plants: sugarcane, sugar beet grains: wheat, corn Biodiesel Group of esterified vegetable oils produced from oil- containing crops, most importantly canola, soybean, sunflower and palm oil

8. May 15, 2007 8 Sugar Cane World Map Countries & Regions Source: British Sugar

9. May 15, 2007 9 Promising Species for Biodiesel Production in Brazil Castor: 1,200 liters/ha/yr. Palm oil: 5,950 liters/ha/yr. Macaúba: 4,000 liters/ha/yr. Babaçú: 1,600 liters/ha/yr. Soybean: 400 liters/ha/yr

10. May 15, 2007 10 Status of First-Generation Biofuels Characteristics and Cost Biofuel Technology Raw MaterialTypical Energy Costs (cents/kWh) Cost Trends and Potential for Cost Reduction Ethanol [gasoline equivalent] Sugarcane Corn Wheat Cellulose* 25-30 cents/literDeclining costs in Brazil due to production efficiency, now 25-30 cents/equivalent-liter (sugarcane) Stable in the United States at 40-50 cents (corn) Biodiesel [diesel equivalent] Soy Canola Palm oil Waste vegetable oil Algae* 40-80 cents/literCost could decline to 35-70 cents/liter diesel equivalent post-2010 for canola and soy Cost likely to remain at current level of about 25 cents for biodiesel from waste oil * In development

11. May 15, 2007 11 Intermediate Generation of Biofuels Under Implementation In the wake of first-generation biofuels, other pathways are emerging based on other resources or processing methods The objective is to diversify available resources while improving product quality Intermediate generation reflects the growing importance of biofuels in the oil-dependent transport sector Oil majors are moving into the biofuels market, historically dominated by agribusiness conglomerates Avenues opened up by Petrobras (H Bio product), the Neste Oil (NextBtL product) and BP Dupont (Biobutanol product) should see development in the next few years because they allow biofuel technologies to benefit from economies of scale inherent to the oil industry

12. May 15, 2007 12 Second-Generation Biofuels Under Advanced Development Second-Generation Biofuels use ligno-cellulosic biomass as raw material Biomass to Liquid (BTL) Technology ●BTL technology is a thermochemical process by which a liquid synfuel is obtained from biomass trough three steps – biomass conditioning, gasification and of the motor fuel synthesis ●The process has not reached the industrial stage to be considered economically competitive Ethanol production by means of hydrolysis ●Processes such as Organosol Rapid Hydrolysis and Enzymatic Hydrolysis promise to sharply increase productivity without expanding planted areas ●Cost reductions for ethanol from cellulose are projected, from 53 cents today to 27 cents post-2010

13. May 15, 2007 13 Possibilities for the Near Future Algae as Raw-Material for Biodiesel Production CropOil Yield (L/ha)Land Needed (M/ha) a Corn1721,540 Soybean446594 Canola1,190223 Jatropha1,892140 Coconut2,68999 Palm Oil5,95045 Microalgae b 136,9002 Microalgae c 58,7004.5 MacroalgaeIn early trials a For meeting 50% of all transport fuel needs of the United States b 70% oil (by weight) in biomass c 30% oil (by weight) in biomass Source: Chisti, Y. (2007)

14. May 15, 2007 14 Possibilities for the Near Future Sustainable Hydrogen Production Alternative Processes for Hydrogen Production ●Biogas — may be a hydrogen source with steam reforming or partial oxidation ●Alcohols — ethanol and methanol derived from biomass are rich in hydrogen and may be reformed into hydrogen ●Power — water electrolysis from electricity produced by hydro-power plants ●Wood — pyrolysis technology to produce hydrogen from biomass

15. May 15, 2007 15 Contact Israel Klabin President FBDS Board of Trustees ikla@fbds.org.br FBDS — Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development Rua Eng. Álvaro Niemeyer, 76 – São Conrado 22610-180 Rio de Janeiro – RJ BRAZIL Tel: +55 (21) 3322-4520 – Fax: +55 (21) 3322-5903 Site: www.fbds.org.br