1. Modeling and visualization software for the nowcasting of the middle atmosphere T. Egorova *, N. Hochmuth ***, E. Rozanov*, **, A.V. Shapiro *,**, A.I. Shapiro *, and W. Schmutz * *PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** IAC ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland *** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland

2. Goals of the project Find out how well we understand the solar irradiance influence on the middle atmosphere; Learn how to manage near-real-time operation and visualization; At the moment Space Weather Service is a secondary goal but may become interesting

3. Nowcast of neutral and ion composition in the mesosphere based on solar irradiance measurements 6-Hourly Data from observations by LYRA, PREMOS or Reconstructions 6-Hourly Data from observations by LYRA, PREMOS or Reconstructions Preparation of the entire Spectral solar irradiance Preparation of the entire Spectral solar irradiance Simulations of the neutral and charged species with free running CICM SOCOL i Simulations of the neutral and charged species with free running CICM SOCOL i Nowcasting results available on web every 6 hours Nowcasting results available on web every 6 hours Output validation to improve the model Output validation to improve the model

4. Egorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010 CTM: Model for Evaluation of oZONe trends Rozanov et al. 1999, 2001 Egorova et al. 2001, 2003   t = 15 min for dynamics   t = 2 h for radiation  horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°)  vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa MEZON MA-ECHAM4 GCM: Middle Atmosphere version of the European Center/Hamburg Model 4 Manzini and McFarlane, 1998   t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry  41 chemical species  Electrons, 17 negative ions 31 positive ions  Reactions: 118 gas-phase, 33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic  GCM-CTM coupling by O 3, H 2 O, CH 4, N 2 O, CFCs Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOL i

5. CCM SOCOL i output Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement and their statistical properties Mixing ratio of the neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density for the 6 hour period after the last LYRA measurement and their statistical properties Charged components: O +, O 2 +, O 4 +, N +, NO +, N 2 +, H 2 O 2 +, H 3 O +,O 2 + ∙N 2, O 2 + ∙H 2 O, H 3 O + ∙OH, NO + ∙H 2 O, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 3, NO + ∙CO 2, NO + ∙N 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙CO 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙N 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 3, H + ∙(H 2 O) 4, H + ∙(H 2 O) 5, H + ∙(H 2 O) 6, H + ∙(H 2 O) 7, H 3 O + ∙CO 2, H 3 O + ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2 e¯,O¯, O 2 ¯, O 3 ¯, O 4 ¯, OH¯, CO 3 ¯, CO 4 ¯, NO 2 ¯, NO 3 ¯, HCO 3 ¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH 3 ¯,O 2 ¯∙H 2 O, NO 3 ¯∙H 2 O, CO 3 ¯∙H 2 O Neutral components: O 3, O *, O, O 2 *, NO, HO 2, ClO, NO 2, OH, NO 3, N 2 O 5, HNO 3, HONO 3, ClONO 2, Cl, N, N *, H 2 O 2, H, HOCl, Cl 2, Cl 2 O 2, HCl, Br, CH 2 O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO 3, BrCl, CH 3, CH 3 O 2, CH 3 O, HCO, CH 3 O 2 H, H 2 O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N 2 O, CH 4, CO, H 2, CBrF 3 Charged components: O +, O 2 +, O 4 +, N +, NO +, N 2 +, H 2 O 2 +, H 3 O +,O 2 + ∙N 2, O 2 + ∙H 2 O, H 3 O + ∙OH, NO + ∙H 2 O, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 3, NO + ∙CO 2, NO + ∙N 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙CO 2, NO + ∙H 2 O∙N 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, NO + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 3, H + ∙(H 2 O) 4, H + ∙(H 2 O) 5, H + ∙(H 2 O) 6, H + ∙(H 2 O) 7, H 3 O + ∙CO 2, H 3 O + ∙N 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙CO 2, H + ∙(H 2 O) 2 ∙N 2 e¯,O¯, O 2 ¯, O 3 ¯, O 4 ¯, OH¯, CO 3 ¯, CO 4 ¯, NO 2 ¯, NO 3 ¯, HCO 3 ¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH 3 ¯,O 2 ¯∙H 2 O, NO 3 ¯∙H 2 O, CO 3 ¯∙H 2 O Neutral components: O 3, O *, O, O 2 *, NO, HO 2, ClO, NO 2, OH, NO 3, N 2 O 5, HNO 3, HONO 3, ClONO 2, Cl, N, N *, H 2 O 2, H, HOCl, Cl 2, Cl 2 O 2, HCl, Br, CH 2 O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO 3, BrCl, CH 3, CH 3 O 2, CH 3 O, HCO, CH 3 O 2 H, H 2 O, CFC-11, CFC-12, N 2 O, CH 4, CO, H 2, CBrF 3 4D: latitude, longitude, altitude, time 4D: latitude, longitude, altitude, time

6. Key chemical processes Middle Stratosphere Mesosphere O 2 + hv (<240 nm) = O + O O + O 2 + M= O 3 + M Ozone production H 2 O + hv (<200 nm) = OH + H NO + hv = NO + + e - Ozone destruction by HOx EPP: Air + particles= HOx + NOx + Ions + e - Ozone destruction by HOx Ozone destruction by NOx Transport GCRSPEEEP

7. Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman- line from the 2-month mean. Compiled by J. Lean

8. Electron density in the tropics Tropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm -3 ). Solar UV SPE GCR IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS model

9. Maps of the electron density at 75 km during quiet time and Halloween storm.

10. Ozone changes due to Haloween storm SPE Funke et al.,2010a

11. Funke et al.,2010b

12. SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004 Case study with CICM SOCOL: Increase SSI by ~5% The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using any of availble data sets

13. Comparison with observations: Hydroxyl (75 km, tropical mean) June, July and August 2004

14. Experimental setup for nowcasting 10-member model ensemble run for the next 6 hours 10-member model ensemble run for the next 6 hours Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours Spectral solar irradiance on model spectral grid for the next 6 hours Initial fields for 10 ensemble members Initial fields for 10 ensemble members Model output for the next 6 hours Model output for the next 6 hours Initialization fields for the next period Initialization fields for the next period

15. Website http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/ http://147.86.9.121/test/silver/:http://147.86.9.121/test/silver/ 10-11.2010 O 3, NO, NO 2, OH, H 2 O e -, total p + T, den, GPH

16. Conclusions and outlook Model reasonable reproduces the resposnse of the middle atmosphere to the variability of solar irradiance and particles Visualization software is ready for operations Validation should be extended to cover extra-polar ozone and electron density LYRA and PREMOS solar irradiance data is not yet fully calibrated and at the moment we do not have real-time SSI data to run the model in nowcasting mode The extention of the model to cover ionosphere will make our results more usable. Visualization software in climate mode can be use for educational and outreach purposes.

17. PMOD/WRC, Davos End of the presentation… Thank you!!!