1. Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies H. Scott Matthews March 3, 2003

2. Recap of Last Lecture  Midterm Questions? Due Wednesday!  802.11b data networks:  Mainstream wireless for home/business  Unlicensed, growing, insecure by practice  Tend to be overlaid on wired networks  Seem to use less elec in use than wired  Ad-hoc/public/open wireless networks  Becoming a reality  Have security problems

3. Interdependencies  A new emphasis on critical infrastructures  PDD-63 in 1998 after Oklahoma City  Generally worried about hackers interfering with operation of physical infrastructures  Use of digital to disrupt physical suggests interdependency  There are many non-hacking interdependencies  Natural events can exploit them too  Perhaps can be better understood and managed with information systems

4. Key Questions  What tools can be used to predict?  How can everyday operation be balanced with security concerns?  What are performance measures?  Who are stakeholders?  How to deal with risk and uncertainty?

5. Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS)  Collective, systemic behavior emergent  I.e. follows patterns that result from, but not predictable from, nonlinear interactions with a large number of subsystems  Capabilities change over time  Greater than sum of its parts  May be possible to model/ manage/ understand via agent-based systems  Software systems where simple decision rules are followed and tracked via information given to them

6. Six Dimensions of Infras. Interdependencies (Rinaldi)  Infrastructure environment  Coupling  Response behavior  Failure types  Infrastructure characteristics  State of Operation

7. Types of Interdependencies  Physical - output is dependent on other  E.g. coal by rail to power plants  Cyber  Banking/ATM systems use wired networks  Logical  Linked through financial markets (buy/sell)  Geographical  Co-located or nearby sites (power plant near steel factory)

8. Existing Interdependency Diagrams Production, Cooling, Emissions Reduction Water for Power for Compressors, Storage, Control Systems Fuel for Generators Power for Pump and Lift Stations, Control Systems Power for Switches Water for Cooling, Emissions Reduction Heat Power for Pumping Stations, Storage, Control Systems Fuel for Generators, Lubricants SCADA, Communications SCADA, Communications SCADA, Communications SCADA, Communications Fuels, Lubricants SCADA, Communications Water for Cooling Fuel Transport, Shipping Fuel Transport, Shipping Shipping Power for Signaling, Switches Fuel for Generators Water for Production, Cooling, Emissions Reduction Water Transpor- tation Oil Telecom Natural Gas Electric Power

9. Proposed Interdependency Diagrams Electric Power Natural Gas $5.2B- 8% Transpor- tation $7.2B - 12% Numbers represent 1997 dollar value of purchases from other sectors Into Non-value-added of electricity industry product (and % of total) Coal $13.7B 22%

10. Definition of Infrastructure Sectors  Energy  Communications  Pipelines  Other utilities (e.g. water)  Transportation (Rail, Air, Water, Truck)

11. Make table insights  Example: Federal, state, and local government enterprises (e.g. TVA) make 13% of total electricity output Outputs in millions $1997

12. Use Insights for CI Sectors Outputs in $millions

13. Top Sectors Dependent on CI

14. Top Sectors With Highest % CI Average across All sectors is 11%