1. Presentation to the Workshop Climate Change and Great Lakes Water Levels March 30, 2001 Chicago, Illinois Gerald E. Galloway, Jr., P.E., Ph.D. International Joint Commission United States and Canada Washington, DC Regulating Great Lakes Water Levels and Water Use

2. Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909 Provided Principles and Mechanisms to Prevent and Resolve Disputes Concerning Water Quantity and Water Quality and Other Environmental Issues Along the U.S.-Canada Boundary Established the International Joint Commission (IJC) Required IJC Approval of Actions Causing Changes in Levels and Flows

3. The International Joint Commission Principles of Operation Operation Without Instructions from Governments Balanced Membership: –Three Commissioners From Each Country –Equality on IJC Boards and Working Groups Service in Personal and Professional Capacity Good Science - Joint Fact-Finding Full Public Involvement

4. Lake Levels Human Control Over Great Lakes Levels is Minor in Comparison to Nature’s Ability to Change Levels Humans Impact Level by: –Regulating Flows –Modifying Channels –Removing or Adding Waters

6. Lake Michigan-Huron Range of Levels 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 Jan-60Jan-61Jan-62Jan-63 Jan-64 Jan-65Jan-66Jan-67Jan-68Jan-69Jan-70Jan-71Jan-72 Jan-73 Jan-74Jan-75Jan-76Jan-77Jan-78Jan-79Jan-80Jan-81Jan-82Jan-83Jan-84Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87Jan-88Jan-89Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99 Year/Month Elev. IGLD1985 (Feet) RECORD LOW Mar 1964 RECORD HIGH Oct 1986

9. Order of Use Precedence Domestic and Sanitary Navigation Hydropower Riparians

10. Lake Superior Systemic Regulation (balancing) Upper & Lower Limits on Lake Superior Maximum and Minimum flow limits Winter Operations Rapids Requirements

11. Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence UPSTREAM CONDITIONS LOCAL CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM CONDITIONS CRITERIA RULES OF PLAN CRITERIA RULES OF PLAN DO NOT EMPTY LAKE DO NOT OVERFILL LAKE DO NOT EXCEED RIVER CAPACITY MAINTAIN MINIMUM LEVELS MAKE ROOM FOR SPRING RAINS FLOW DOWN ST. LAWRENCE RIVER

13. OPTIONS Further Regulation –Three Lake –Limited Regulation of Lake Erie Diversions Management Emergency Preparedness Land Use / Shoreline Zoning Education Shoreline Protection Dredging

14. IJC Recommendations No Additional Regulation No Diversion Management Improve Emergency Preparedness Initiate Comprehensive Shoreline Management Review Current Regulation Improve Education Consider Climate Change Address Technical Issues (Forecasting, Mapping, Analytical Techniques)

15. Order of Use Precedence Domestic and Sanitary Navigation Hydropower Riparians Environment Recreational Boaters Explicit New

16. The Environment Environment Requires Extremes in Levels Changes in Mean Levels Modify Existing Habitat or Create New Habitat Lower Levels May Disturb Sediments

17. CLIMATE CHANGE!

18. Lake Ontario -St. Lawrence River Regulation Review $20 Million (US), Five-Year Study of Criteria Governing Regulation Address Competing Needs of: –Navigation –Hydropower –Riparians –Domestic Users –Environment –Boaters Address Climate Change Impacts

21. Current Water Use Removals - –Bottled water - 0.01cfs –Ballast water - 0.7cfs –Chicago Diversion- 3250cfs –Other (net) - 0 Consumptive Use - 4270cfs Inflow –Long Lac/Ogoki - 5632cfs –Bottled Water - 0.14 cfs Outflow (St. Lawrence) 244,000 cfs

23. “The Governments are concerned that current management principles and conservation measures may be inadequate to ensure the future sustainable use of our shared waters.” Reference to the IJC on the Consumption, Diversion and Removal of Water. February 10, 1999. The Concern

24. IJC Conclusions There is never a ‘surplus’ of water in the Great Lakes system. Because there is uncertainty about the availability of Great Lakes water in the future caution should be used in managing water to protect the resource for the future

26. Water Uses Reference Recommended –Principles to Govern Removals and Consumptive Uses –Development of Standards by States and Provinces –Attention to Water Management Issues Climate Change

27. Current Actions Governors and Premiers Develop Standards for Removals and Consumptive Uses Congress- Parliament Affirm IJC Review Climate Change?

28. Lake Levels Human Control Over Great Lakes Levels is Minor in Comparison to Nature’s Ability to Change Levels Humans Impact Level by: –Regulating Flows –Modifying Channels –Removing or Adding Waters

29. Climate Change and Levels Climate Change May Severely Stress Current Regulatory Regimes Uncertainty Demands Caution and Intense Study IJC is : –Studying St Lawrence –Planning for Superior (Michigan and Huron)

31. To protect the integrity of the ecosystem of the Great Lakes basin, permit no proposals for major new or increased CONSUMPTIVE USE to proceed unless: Full consideration of cumulative impacts Effective conservation in requesting area Based on sound planning All returns meet quality objectives of GLWQA IJC Recommendations

32. Permit no REMOVALS unless proponent can demonstrate that the removal would not endanger the integrity of the ecosystem of the Great Lakes Basin…and that: No practical alternatives Full consideration of cumulative impacts Effective conservation in recipient area Based on sound planning No net loss in process but in no case greater than a 5% loss IJC Recommendations

33. Conclusions - Future Demand There are no active proposals for major diversions There remains little reason to believe such proposals will be economically, socially or environmentally feasible in the foreseeable future Alternatives Exist to Great Lakes Water Use - Desalination; Water Rights Transfers; Conservation Potential exists for requests from Near-basin Communities