1. Climate Change Adaptation
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water
WMO
Climate Change Adaptation
The Pivotal Role of Water
AVINASH TYAGI
Director, Water and Climate, WMO
Coordinator: UN-WATER Thematic Priority Area
Water and Climate Change
WATER DAY
2 June 2010, Bonn, Germany
Global Framework for Climate Services
WMO: Climate and Water

2. Potential Climate Change Impacts
Global Framework for Climate Services

3. Weather, Climate and Water
Severe Storms, Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons), Storm Surges, Floods, Droughts, Cold Spells, Heat Waves, forest fires, locust swarms, etc…
Global Framework for Climate Services

4. Effects on the hydrological cycle (IPCC 2001)
Precipitations
Evaporation
Soil moisture
Groundwater
Water Demand
Introduction
The three key developments here are constructing scenarios that are suitable for hydrological impact assessments, developing and using realistic hydrological models, and understanding better the linkages and feedbacks between climate and hydrological systems.
The heart of the scenario “problem” lies in the scale mismatch between global climate models (data generally provided on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of several tens of thousands of square kilometers) and catchment hydrological models (which require data on at least daily scales and at a resolution of perhaps a few square kilometers). A variety of “downscaling” techniques have been developed (Wilby and Wigley, 1997) and used in hydrological studies. These techniques range from simple interpolation of climate model output (as used in the U.S. National Assessment; Felzer and Heard, 1999), through the use of empirical/statistical relationships between catchment and regional climate (e.g., Crane and Hewitson, 1998; Wilby et al., 1998, 1999), to the use of nested regional climate models (e.g., Christensen and Christensen, 1998); all, however, depend on the quality of simulation of the driving global model, and the relative costs and benefits of each approach have yet to be ascertained. Studies also have looked at techniques for generating stochastically climate data at the catchment scale (Wilby et al., 1998, 1999). In principle, it is possible to explore the effects of changing temporal patterns with stochastic climate data, but in practice the credibility of such assessments will be strongly influenced by the ability of the stochastic model to simulate present temporal patterns realistically.
The greatest uncertainties in the effects of climate on streamflow arise from uncertainties in climate change scenarios, as long as a conceptually sound hydrological model is used. In estimating impacts on groundwater recharge, water quality, or flooding, however, translation of climate into response is less well understood, and additional uncertainty is introduced
Hydrological variability over time in a catchment is influenced by variations in precipitation over daily, seasonal, annual, and decadal time scales
The Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the IPCC clearly states that the risks associated with climate change have the potential to undermine progress towards sustainable development, such as, damages from extreme climate events, water shortage and degraded water quality, food supply disruptions and hunger, land degradation, and diminished human health.
Precipitations
The effect of climate change on streamflow and groundwater recharge varies regionally and between scenarios, largely following projected changes in precipitation. In some parts of the world, the direction of change is consistent between scenarios, although the magnitude is not. In other parts of the world, the direction of change is uncertain.
Peak streamflow is likely to move from spring to winter in many areas where snowfall currently is an important component of the water balance.
Glacier
Glacier retreat is likely to continue, and many small glaciers may disappear.
Water Quality
Water quality is likely generally to be degraded by higher water temperature, but this may be offset regionally by increased flows. Lower flows will enhance degradation of water quality.
Flood
Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions, and low flows are likely to decrease in many regions.
Flood frequency is affected by changes in the year-to-year variability in precipitation and by changes in short-term rainfall properties (such as storm rainfall intensity).
Droughts
The frequency of low or drought flows is affected primarily by changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation, year-to-year variability, and the occurrence of prolonged droughts.
Water Demand and Management
Demand for water generally is increasing as a result of population growth and economic development, but it is falling in some countries. Climate change is unlikely to have a large effect on municipal and industrial demands but may substantially affect irrigation withdrawals.
The impact of climate change on water resources depends not only on changes in the volume, timing, and quality of streamflow and recharge but also on system characteristics, changing pressures on the system, how the management of the system evolves, and what adaptations to climate change are implemented. Nonclimatic changes may have a greater impact on water resources than climate change.
Unmanaged systems are likely to be most vulnerable to climate change.
Climate change challenges existing water resources management practices by adding additional uncertainty. Integrated water resources management will enhance the potential for adaptation to change.
Adaptive capacity (specifically, the ability to implement integrated water resources management), however, is distributed very unevenly across the world.
Non toutes les tendences peuvent être attribué au changement climatique, mais le retrait des glaicier ainsi que le déplacement des crues du printemps à l’hiver on plus de possibilité d’être causés par le changement climatique
L’effets varie sensiblement d’une régione à l’autre, essentiellement à cause du changement prévu des précipitations
Dans les région où la neige est un élément important du bilan hydrique, elle se déplaceront du printemps vers l’hive,
Glaciers
Streamflow
Floods
Low flows
Global Framework for Climate Services

5. Potential Water Resources Impacts
Water Supplies
Water Demands
Water Quality
Sea water level
Flood Management
Drought management
Waste water treatment
Irrigation and Drainage
Hydropower
Operations
Global Framework for Climate Services

6. Water, Energy and Climate Change
Future water
management activities
must carefully consider
strategies to reduce
greenhouse gas
emissions
Global Framework for Climate Services

7. Rainfall Variability and GDP
Bubble Size = GDP per capita
(Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall)
Developing countries face more challenging climate conditions
Monthly Rainfall Variability
Wealthy nations share a small window of favorable climate (low variability; moderate rainfall)
Mean Annual Rainfall (cm)
Global Framework for Climate Services
Brown and Lall, 2006

8. Climate Change Adaptation: the process
Water Resources
Water Demand
Storage
Runoff
GW recharge
GCM
Statistical downscaling / RCM
E + ET
Temperature
Precipitation
Hydrological Modelling
Climate scenarios
Development scenarios
Socio-economic
Factors
Global Framework for Climate Services

9. Water Resources Management Entry points for Adaptations
Planning new investments, or for capacity expansion (reservoirs, irrigation systems, levees, water supply, wastewater treatment)
Operation & regulation of existing systems: accommodating new uses or conditions (e.g. ecology, climate change, population growth)
Maintenance and major rehabilitation of existing systems (e.g. dams, barrages, irrigation systems, canals, pumps, etc.)
Modifications in processes and demands (water conservation, pricing, regulation, legislation)
Introduce new efficient technologies (desalting, biotechnology, drip irrigation, wastewater reuse, recycling, solar energy )
Global Framework for Climate Services

10. Adaptations in Water Resources Management
Guiding Principles
Mainstreaming climate change adaptation within broader development context
Strengthening water governance and integration of land anndwat management
Improving and sharing of knowledge and information on adaptation measures and invest in monitoring
Building long-term resilience through stronger institutions, invest in infrastructure and well functioning ecosystems
Invest in cost effective and adaptive water management as well as technology transfer
Leverage additional funds through national budgetary and innovative funding mechanisms
Global Framework for Climate Services

11. Global Framework for Climate Services
Basic Messages
All drivers of hydrological cycle are affected by global warming – climate change (CC)
Water is the principal medium through which most people will experience CC
Many tools, coping options designed for Climate Variability (CV), form the foundations for CC adaptation
Socioeconomic factors, land uses, conflicts and population dynamics will dominate future conditions and modes of adaptation
Huge upfront investments to avoid highly uncertain CC risks have to be dealt with in a well-organized risk management framework
Global Framework for Climate Services

12. Global Framework for Climate Services
Basic Messages
Keystone for adaptation and adaptive management is a greatly expanded and improved hydromet system for monitoring, modeling and forecasting
Climate information, GCMs and prediction services need to be dramatically improved
Improving governance is key to CC adaptation
Therefore, CC adaptation must be cast within a broader IWRM framework, and not viewed as an independently pursued analytical paradigm
Global Framework for Climate Services

13. WORKING TOGETHER Towards SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Thank you!
Global Framework for Climate Services

14. Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009
World Climate Conference-3 Better climate information for a better future
Geneva, Switzerland 31 August–4 September 2009
WCC-3 therefore is making a new beginning by bringing a more integrated approach to the application of climate science and provide better climate information for a better future for the mankind.
The WCC-3 is being organised in Geneva from......
Global Framework for Climate Services

15. Global Framework for Climate Services
GFCS Goal
Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.”
Global Framework for Climate Services

16. Global Framework for Climate Services
GFCS: Objectives
Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations, International organizations, scientists and sectors will work together to meet the needs of users;
Enable users to benefit from improved climate information and prediction;
Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate predictions to generate and provide future climate information on an operational basis;
Foster mechanisms for sharing new advances in science and information through a cooperative global infrastructure.
Global Framework for Climate Services

17. Global Framework for Climate Services
Components of
Global Framework for Climate Services
Research &
Modeling
and Prediction
Health
Agriculture
Transport
Tourism
Water
Energy
Ecosystem
Sectoral
Users
Climate Services Information System
User
Interface
Programme
Climate Research & Modeling and Prediction
Observations
Climate User Interface Programme
Government
Private sector
Capacity Building
Global Framework for Climate Services

18. Climate information flow from producers to end-users
Scientific and technical analysis and prediction
Social and
economic actions
Global Analysis and Prediction Centres
Global Applications Centres
International User Organizations
Regional Analysis and Prediction Centres
Regional Applications Centres
Regional
User Organizations
National Meteorological Centres
Sector support institutions
Water, Agriculture, Health…..
National and local users
Global Framework for Climate Services

19. Global Framework for Climate Services