1. Modeling Human Response to Threats and Disasters John H. Sorensen Oak Ridge National Laboratory May 29-30, 2003

2. Major Modeling Thrusts in Disaster Research Warning Response Warning Diffusion Evacuation Behavior Protective Action Effectiveness Psycho-Social Impacts Intelligent Consequence Management

3. Warning Response Research Started in the 1950’s Driven by the shadow of nuclear war If we sound the sirens, what will people do? Series of studies - tornado, hurricane, flood, explosion, air raid sirens, alien invasions Major findings –People seek more information –People converge on event

4. Warning Response Process

5. Factors Increasing Response Receiver Characteristics –Visual and other cues –Family and network –Female –Younger –Majority –High SES –Non-fatalistic Sender Characteristic –Message source –Message channel –Message style Clear Specific Accuracy Certain Consistency –Message Content

6. Alternative Responses to Natural and Technological Hazards Do nothing/ denial Confirm warning/ seek information Evacuate/ temporary relocation Seek protective shelter/ stay home/ isolation Respiratory protection Decontaminate Seek medical attention Help others

7. Modeling Diffusion of Warning

12. Intelligent Consequence Management New sensor networks or links to existing sensor networks designed to detect and monitor the threats of concern High-speed communications and data exchange Real-time simulation models running on high- speed machines Faster than real-time predictive capabilities Advanced decision support tools that can process data and simulation outputs into a format useful to decision-makers

13. ORNL LDRD Dynamic evacuation modeling Utilize deployable road sensor tape or existing monitors First evacuation model with dynamic traffic assignment Can update simulations using real time data Linked to GIS

14. Alerting Sensor Sound Preparedness Alert Intelligent Consequence Management Architecture for Rad/Chemical Incident Notify Emergency Response Team Activate MonitorsChoose Protection Plan Protection Action ES Protective Action Library Data Archive Dispersion Scenario Library EvacuateGo To Safe Room Generate Evacuation PlanGenerate Evacuation To Safe Room Plan Distribute Plans (Electronically) Classify Event Activate Warning With Evacuation Instructions RT Traffic Counters Data Archive Generate Sampling Plans Generate Search & Rescue Plan Distribute to Emergency Response Team Generate Emergency Response Plan Send in Response Team Initiate Search & Response Initiate Sampling Initiate Decontamination Activate Field Monitoring Send Data Outdoor Dispersion Model Run Evacuation and Shelter Models System components to be tested are in red Accident Library Damage Assessment Run Economic Model

15. Major Questions How will warnings be issued to publics once a bio event is identified? To what degree will human behavior in a bio event be similar to other hazards? Will bio events elicit a different types of human response than observed for other hazards? What are the relevant parameters to model in a bio event?