1. CHAPTER 8 ELECTIONS AND CAMPAIGNS

2. In Europe, the party names the candidate. In the U.S. candidate must win a primary

3. Theme A: How Campaigns Are Conducted.

4. Two phases: getting nominated and getting elected Getting nominated –Getting a name on the ballot –An individual effort (versus organizational effort in Europe) –Parties play a minor role (compared with Europe) –Parties used to play a major role

5. Major differences Presidential races are more competitive. –House races have lately been one- sided for Democrats. –Presidential winner rarely gets more than 55 percent of vote –Most House incumbents are reelected (more than 90 percent)

6. Major differences Fewer people vote in congressional elections –Unless election coincides with presidential election –Gives greater importance to partisan voters (party regulars)

7. Major differences Congressional incumbents can service their constituents. –Can take credit for governmental grants, programs, and so forth –President can't: power is not local

8. Major differences Congressional candidates can duck responsibility. –"I didn't do it; the people in Washington did!" –President is stuck with blame –But local candidates can suffer when their leader's economic policies fail

9. Major differences Benefit of presidential coattails has declined –Congressional elections have become largely independent –Reduces meaning (and importance) of party

10. Running for president Getting mentioned –Using reporters, trips, speeches, and name recognition –Sponsoring legislation, governing large state

11. Running for president Setting aside time to run –Reagan: six years –May have to resign from office first

12. Running for president Organization –Need a large (paid) staff –Need volunteers –Need advisers on issues: position papers

13. 1. Paid Professionals Member of the incumbent’s staff or outside “hired gun” specialists.

14. 2. Unpaid senior advisers, usually acquaintances of the candidate.

15. 3. Citizen volunteers who are given routine and boring jobs.

16. 4. Issue consultants who define issues and write position papers,

17. Running for president Strategy and themes –Incumbent versus challenger: defend or attack? –Setting the tone (positive or negative) –Developing a theme: trust, confidence, and so on –Judging the timing –Choosing a target voter: who's the audience?

18. 5. Media personnel, organizers computerized direct-mail campaigns, and pollsters.

19. The Role of Technology in Elections - Television (Visuals and Spots), Computers (Public Opinion Polls, Focus Groups)

20. Television, debates, and direct mail Paid advertising (spots) –Has little (or a very subtle) effect on outcome: spots tend to cancel each other out –Most voters rely on many sources of information. News broadcasts (visuals) –Cost little –May have greater credibility with voters –Rely on having TV camera crew around –May be less informative than spots

21. Television, debates, and direct mail Debates –Usually an advantage only to the challenger –Reagan in 1980: reassured voters –Primary debates: the "dating game" in 1988 Risk of slips of the tongue on visuals and debates –Ford and Poland, Carter and lust, Reagan and trees –Forces candidates to rely on stock speeches –Sell yourself, not your ideas The computer –Makes direct mail campaigns possible –Allows candidates to address specific voters –Creates importance of mailing lists

22. Two kinds of campaign issues Position issues – rival candidates have opposing views Valence issues-matters on which everyone agrees

23. Primary versus general campaigns –Kinds of elections and primaries: general versus primary elections –Differences between primary and general campaigns –What works in a general election may not work in a primary –Different voters, workers, and media attention –Must mobilize activists with money and motivation to win nomination –Must play to the politics of activists

24. Primary versus general campaigns Iowa caucuses –Held in February of general election year –Candidates must do well –Winners tend to be "ideologically correct" –Most liberal Democrat, most conservative Republican –The caucus system: "musical chairs and fraternity pledge week"

25. Primary versus general campaigns The balancing act –Being conservative (or liberal) enough to get nominated –Move to center to get elected –True nationwide in states where activists are more polarized than average voter –The "clothespin vote": neither candidate is appealing Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than the average voter Example: McGovern in 1972

26. Theme B: Money in Electoral Campaigns

27. Money - How important is it? "Money is the mother's milk of politics." Are candidates being "sold" like soap? Answer is not so obvious

28. Running for president Money –Individuals can give $2,000 –political action committees (PACs) $5,000 per candidate or $15,000 to national party –Candidates must raise $5,000 in twenty states to qualify for matching grants to pay for primary

29. Sources 1. Candidates themselves 2. Other Well to do people 3. Organizations and Interest Groups

30. 4. Small individual donors 5. The Federal Government Up to $5 million in Primaries - Full funding in presidential general election.

31. Figure 8.1: The Cost of Winning Source: Federal Election Commission Report, April 28, 1999.

34. Theme C: Elections and Party Alignments -- Probably today we are in an era of dealignment.

35. Figure 8.5: Trends in Split-Ticket Voting for President and Congress, 1920-1996

36. How We Vote Prospective voting –Know the issues and vote for the best candidate –Most common among activists and special interest groups –Few voters use prospective voting because it requires information.

37. How We Vote Retrospective voting –Judge the incumbent's performance and vote accordingly –Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically? –Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1992 –Usually helps incumbent unless economy has gotten worse –Most elections decided by retrospective votes

38. Theme D: Campaign ‑ Finance Reforms: Have they been effective?

39. $2,000 Maximum for Individual Donors $5,000 Maximum for PACs

40. Campaign-finance reforms cannot be credited with a wholesale cleaning up of American politics, because relatively few things were “for sale”

41. 1. The political parties have been weakened. 2. Candidates who are wealthy or who can appeal to many small donors have an advantage.

42. 3. Incumbents have an advantage. 4. Late starters have a disadvantage.

43. 5. Celebrities in politics have increased because they can stage benefits to raise money for candidates.

44. 6. The issue of “soft money” has not been addressed. No real restrictions. Except no corporation or union can give money directly from its treasury to a national political party.

45. Independent Expenditures Corporations, unions, and associations may not use their own money to fund “electioneering communications” that refer to clearly identified candidates sixty days before the general elections, or thirty days before a primary elections. PACs may up to their funding limits.

46. 7. Political Action Committees (PACs) have increased in both numbers and influence.

47. Figure 8.2: Growth of PACs Source: Federal Election Commission.

48. Campaign Finance Reform 2002 Effective November 6 2002 See Brooking Institute at http://www.brookings.org /gs/cf/cf_hp.htm

49. Self-Test