1. NextGen and the Weather Information Database
Hello, and welcome to the NextGen and Weather Information Database Presentation.

2. Overview
NextGen 101
What is the Weather Information Database (WIDB) and the Single Authoritative Source
Why NOAA?
What are we doing now
The roadmap ahead
Broader benefits to NOAA
Science Issues and the 4-D Cube
Summary
Today’s presentation will be broken down into 2 main parts…
Facts…including, NextGen 101, The Weather Information Database and the Single Authoritative Source, NOAAs role, What are we doing now, and the Roadmap to IOC and beyond
The second part will be more thought provoking…discussing Broader benefits to NOAA, the Science issues and the 4-D cube

3. NextGen 101 What exactly is NextGen???
Air transportation network which stresses adaptability by enabling aircraft to immediately adjust to ever-changing factors such as: weather, traffic congestion, aircraft position via GPS, flight trajectory patterns, and security issues
By 2025, all aircraft and airports in U.S. airspace will be connected to the NextGen network and will continually share information in real time to improve efficiency, safety, and absorb the predicted increase in air transportation
NextGen was enacted in 2003 by President Bush and Congress. In this initiative, the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) is responsible for managing a public/private partnership to bring NextGen online by 2025
JPDO coordinates the specialized efforts of the Departments of Transportation, Defense, Homeland Security, Commerce, FAA, NASA, and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
What exactly is NextGen?
This slide is mainly used as a reference slide
NextGen is not just weather…it goes way beyond weather…including security and safety, etc.
The JPDO and NextGen were enacted in 2003 by President Bush and Congress. The JPDO coordinates all of the agencies involved with NextGen

4. The 8 Key Capabilities
NextGen is a multi-billion dollar project…and a multi-agency project, as shown across the top of the graphic.
NextGen will enable a curve-to-curve approach, while the current system portrays a gate-to-gate approach.
A curve-to-curve approach will range from the cab ride to the airport, to ticketing, security, in flight, to the cab ride home.
The 8 highlighted areas have key capabilities for NextGen. This includes weather assimilation (shown on the top right), and super density operations.
NextGen will bring more efficiency to air traffic.

5. NextGen 101
Weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has determined two thirds of this is preventable with better weather information (better content, better assimilation, better consistency, etc…)
"A key finding, based on an analysis of several convective events, is that as much as two-thirds of the weather related delay is potentially avoidable." -Research, Engineering and Development Advisory Committee; Report of the Weather-ATM Integration Working Group; Oct3, 2007
The next couple of slides are fun facts and figures…
…and the numbers are staggering!
Weather accounts for 70% of all traffic delays within the National Airspace System
The FAA has determined that two thirds of these delays are preventable with better weather information
Better weather information doesn’t just mean better forecasts…it means better assimilation of weather into the FAA decision makers. For example, better access to weather information for better forecasts and consistency.

6. NextGen 101
“The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. economy was as much as $41 billion for 2007.”*
Air-traffic delays raised airlines' operating costs by $19 billion.
Delays cost passengers time worth up to $12 billion.
Indirect costs of delay to other industries added roughly $10 billion to the total burden.
*Your Flight Has Been Delayed Again; Congressional Joint Economic Committee; May 2008
The total cost of domestic air traffic delays to the U.S. was as much as $41 billion in 2007
This number is high but believable since at the Dallas/Fort Worth airport…one flight diversion would cost as much as $50-$100,000 each!...thus diverting one bank of flight diversions (including as many as 30 planes)…the numbers add up quick.

7. NextGen 101
NextGen goals are not achievable without improving integration of weather information into decision support systems
NextGen weather vision (a major paradigm shift) is focused on:
Providing a multiple user common weather picture
Consistent and reliable weather information
An improved weather information data storage approach containing observation and forecast data (i.e., the WIDB or the “4 Dimensional Weather Data Cube”) enabling NextGen dissemination capabilities
NextGen is not achievable without incorporating weather into decision support
The NextGen weather paradigm is a major shift
- NextGen will provide multiple users with a common weather picture
It will integrate products like ITWS, CIWS and many more options that are not built yet
It will provide consistent information across the board for users
To incorporate all of this data…an improved data storage approach will be adopted. This source is called the Weather Information Database (by the NWS) and the 4-D Weather Cube (by the FAA). The two names are used interchangeably, but mean the same thing.

8. NextGen 101; Key Themes
A Net-centric (net-enabled) capability is envisioned:
“Network Enabled”…
An information network that makes information available, securable, and usable in real time
Information may be pushed to known users and is available to be pulled by others
Weather information sharing is two-way
“Virtual” repository with no single physical database or computer
Conceptually unified source distributed among multiple physical locations and suppliers, of which NOAA is the leading data supplier
NextGen entails a network enabled approach…
…where information can be pushed to known users and pulled by others. It’s two-way information sharing.
Users will be able to sift through the data to get what they want.
NDFD is an example of a network enabled system
The NWS and FAA will become network enabled
This Weather Information Database will be a virtual repository (or database), not just one box

9. NextGen Weather Basics
Today
NextGen (new requirements)
Not integrated into aviation decision support systems (DSS)
Today’s requirements can lead to inconsistent info
Low temporal resolution (for aviation decision making purposes)
Disseminated in minutes
Updated by schedule
Fixed product formats (graphic or text)
Totally integrated into DSS
Updated requirements/ Nationally consistent
High temporal resolution
Disseminated in seconds
Updated by events
Flexible formats
To adhere to the FAA NextGen requirements, we will look at the right side (which is an improvement over today)…
We will be totally integrated into decision support
Consistent on a national level
We will update things by events and have flexible formatting, rather than by schedules and fixed events.

10. What is the WIDB?
The WIDB (aka the 4-Dimensional Weather Data Cube) will contain:
Continuously updated weather observations (surface to low earth orbit, including space weather and ocean parameters)
High resolution (space and time) analysis and forecast information (conventional weather parameters from numerical models)
Aviation impact parameters for IOC (2013)
Turbulence
Icing
Convection
Ceiling and visibility
Winds (surface and aloft)
The WIDB of the future will contain “all” weather data, not just aviation parameters.
The Weather Information Database will be continuously updated with obs
The Weather Information Database will contain high resolution analysis and forecast data, including space weather and ocean parameters.
The aviation impact parameters necessary for the initial operating capability of 2013 include,
Turbulence
Icing
Convection
Ceiling and visibility…and
Winds
The Weather Information Database of the future will contain “all” weather parameters, not just aviation

11. What is the 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source?
The 4-D Wx Single Authoritative Source (SAS):
Is only a portion of the WIDB
Provides a common weather picture for National Air Space (NAS) participants (Airlines, DoD, FAA, etc.)
Is the basis for all aviation decisions by Air Traffic Management (ATM) in the FAA
Is formed by merger of model data, automated gridded algorithms, climatology and observational data, and meteorologist input/data manipulation to ensure consistency and accuracy
What is the 4-D Weather Single Authoritative Source (also known as the SAS)?
The SAS is a portion of the Weather Information Database
It will provide a common weather picture for the NAS
It will be the basis for all aviation decisions by the FAA
It will contain all model and forecast data
Who owns the SAS? NOAA will be the owner of the SAS. Other agencies will have data in the SAS, but NOAA will determine what goes into the SAS.
This concept of the SAS can be used for far more than just aviation.
By 2013 the net enabled concept will be available
Between 2013 and will entail heavy R & D of the SAS

12. The WIDB: A Conceptual Model
Observations
Forecasting
Numerical
Modeling
Systems
Satellites
Network Enabled Operations
Statistical
Forecasting
Systems
NWS
Forecaster
Radars
Data Integration
WIDB
Aircraft
4D Wx
SAS
Automated Forecast
Systems
Surface
A 4-dimensional conceptual model of the Weather Information Database
Left side – contains all the observations
Right side – forecasting (meteorologists over the loop, or meteorologists in the loop…where value is added)
And finally, integration into User Decisions
Consistency is the key!
Forecast Integration
Soundings
Grids
Decision
Support
Systems
Custom
Graphic
Generators
Custom
Alphanumeric
Generators
Integration into User Decisions

13. Why NOAA?
NOAA is the most logical integrator and operator of this data cube based on its:
Extensive experience with data ingest and assimilation
Ownership of major observation and modeling capabilities
Experienced meteorological workforce
Legislative mandate to provide weather to the FAA
Existing related capabilities such as AWIPS and NDFD
NOAA is the most logical source for integrating and operating the WIDB
Already have existing capabilities using IT structure (NDFD)
Own much of the data already
Thus NOAA is the suggested office of primary responsibility for the Weather Information Database

14. Integrated Work Plan Defines Our Role
Why NOAA?
Integrated Work Plan Defines Our Role
“NOAA stands ready to accept the role as the Office of Primary Responsibility for Weather Information Services as this responsibility is core to NOAA’s mission, and we are confident that [the IWP] will enable us to better align NOAA’s weather portfolio with NextGen”
Mary Glackin; April 7, 2008
The Integrated Work Plan defines NOAAs role as the office of primary responsibility for the Weather Information Database…as this responsibility is core to NOAAs mission.

15. So What’s Happening Now?
Multi-agency initiatives:
NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team – coordinates teams below:
Environmental Information Team – What’s in the Cube
IT and Enterprise Services Team – Cube IT/”plumbing”
Policy Team – Governance, cost apportionment, data rights, etc…
Demonstration Team – library of government sponsored and private industry demos
Requirements Development – FAA leads development of functional and performance requirements
Integrated Science Roadmap – NOAA’s OAR leading initiative
All initiatives with NextGen are multi-agency, including the private sector
Multiple teams have been formed as a part of the NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) IOC Development Team.
Environmental Information Team – Will decide, what’s in the cube
IT and Enterprise Services Team – is responsible for the cube plumbing
Policy Team – is responsible for who pays for what?...data access rights, etc
Demonstration Team – is responsible for cataloging all the demonstrations currently being done, and including weather in them
Requirements Team – is responsible for the functional and performance requirements
Integrated Science Roadmap – GSD and OAR will work with NSSL, SPC, HPC, etc to streamline efforts

16. The Roadmap Ahead Initial Operational Capability (2013)
Integrated environmental information sources
Initial meteorologist oversight of gridded data
Common data standards and protocols
Initial integration of diverse weather elements into decision support tools
Intermediate Capability (2016)
Improved modeling and science enables higher resolution more accurate information
Full Network compatibility of environmental information
Direct integration of weather into Air Traffic Management Systems
Full Operational Capability (2022)
All NextGen requirements met and benefits achieved
High resolution, nested scale forecasts available for all elements
Full network connectivity ensures consistent information use across service areas and user groups
Here is the Roadmap Ahead…
Initial Operating Capability is 2013
The main bullet to focus on here is #3, common data standards and protocols
Between 2013 and 2016 will be improvements to the forecast process and R&D taking place…
Full Operational Capability will be in place by 2022

17. 4-D Weather Cube Broader Benefits to NOAA
Aviation driven consistency and accuracy requirements will improve all NWS services
Consistency challenges not unique to aviation
More accurate public forecasts because of aviation driven high resolution modeling requirements
Improved severe weather lead times because of aviation driven convective forecasts
Implements “Warn on Forecast” technologies
NextGen will provide broader benefits to NOAA
Consistency and accuracy will improve ALL NOAA/NWS forecasts – this Is not just unique to aviation
More accurate public forecasts due to aviation-driven high resolution modeling
Improved severe weather forecasts as well, by implementing “Warn on Forecast”
All equaling…our forecasts add value. After all, it is by law we provide this information to other government agencies, i.e. the FAA.

18. 4-D Weather Cube Broader Benefits to NOAA
Improved access to all NWS products and services via the cube
Supports automated decision assistance tools for other agencies and entities beyond FAA
IT and Data Management enhancements
Establish a central repository and access for critical NWS products and services beyond aviation
Support GEOSS requirements
Enhances continuity of operations
Extends the AWIPS enterprise services into a ‘system of systems’ linking AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, GOES, NEXRAD, etc…
Currently, our systems are very stove-piped in several approaches…
The Weather Information Database will link “System of systems” together including, AWIPS, MADIS, NDFD, CCS, and NEXRAD
These will be combined to access data more efficiently
We will have better access to our web pages and make them more intuitive, where they may currently not be user-friendly In the NextGen Era, customers will want “X” and they can easily access “X”.
Real enterprise architecture for NOAA/NWS will be available.

19. Science Issues and Challenges
Consistency
The Forecast Process
Convective Modeling
Model Enhancements and Improvements
Verification
Now we will switch gears from more of the “facts” to some of the science issues and challenges we face in the road to NextGen.
Some of these include,
Consistency…
The forecast process
Convective modeling
Model enhancements and improvements
…and verification

20. The “Consistency” Issue
The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy
Consistency Challenges:
Spatial
Internal
“Representativeness” – (Does a click inside the cube really represent what I see outside?)
The FAA requirements consider consistency just as important as accuracy, or even more…basically consistency is #1, and accuracy is #2.
Some of the challenges we will face, include:
Spatial – containing continuous updates to spatial and horizontal resolution
Internal – Are we consistent with our data/products, internally? Can you see the lines between WFOs on NDFD?
Representativeness – If we click point X and it says “rain”, then look outside and it’s sunny…is our forecast representative of what’s really going on? Can we keep current with ever-changing observations?

21. NextGen Weather Challenges
The Forecast Process:
Most existing NWS forecast processes not designed to meet the resolution, refresh and latency requirements of NextGen
Temporal and Spatial resolution – Are NextGen observation and forecast requirements viable? Will model researchers and developers have the resources available?
NOAA and research partner R&D focusing on Meteorologist-in-the-Loop (MITL) and Meteorologist-over-the-Loop (MOTL) techniques
Changing forecast process culture is complex and possibly controversial
Most existing NWS forecast processes will not meet NextGen requirements
For example: FAA wants visibility updated every 15 minutes
And convection updated every 5 minutes (currently being done by CIWS
But is this viable?
How will forecasters play a role? How will they add value? Enables over the loop and in the loop philosophies.
- This is a very complicated and controversial issue
We will “have to change” to meet the requirements of the FAA!
We don’t have the answers now, but just know what we have currently will not work, so we have to change to keep up. 21 21

22. Convective Modeling
Aviation requirements are demanding higher resolution models
Convection in the short term time frame:
0-2 hours for tactical planning
2-8 hours for strategic planning
Resolution requirements based on
Terminal – within 100km radius of an airport, aka Super Density Operations (SDO)
Enroute – within the National Airspace System (NAS), aka Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)
Global – outside the NAS
Aviation requirements are demanding higher resoultion models
Convection in the short-term (0-2 hours) is used for tactical decisions and (2-8 hours) is used for strategic planning
This is leading to resolution requirements, based on…
Terminal – within 100 km radius of airport (higher resolution models needed – perhaps down to ¼ mile resoltion)
Enroute – within the NAS (can use what we have today)
Global – outside the NAS (can use what we have today)

23. Verification
NextGen suggests verification schemes that measure operational impacts
Move away from traditional verification methodology like PoD and FAR
An example is the Weather Impact Traffic Index, WITI
Measures efficiency of the NAS operation, but weather is only one factor
Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic corridor, etc…
NWS/FAA is collaboratively working on the “Terminal Forecast WITI” which is a forecast of the NAS operation at a terminal or a corridor
Verification is interesting…
FAA is moving away from meteorological/scientific verification and more towards operational impacts. Our current scientific verification – means nothing to customers.
Moving away from tradition verification, such as, POD, FAR, etc
An example is the WITI – Weather Impact Traffic Index
It measures efficiency of the NAS
Factors in airport capacity, time of day, traffic, etc
Is a TAF forecast the same at 3am? 9am? 5pm?
-WITI summaries are being briefed to Jack Hayes on a daily and weekly basis. 23

24. Summary
NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced
The NextGen paradigm suggests that most weather information will be assimilated into decision support tools and the decision making process
NOAA has been designated as the Office of Primary Responsibility (OPR) to build and deploy a 4-D Weather Data Cube (WIDB) by IOC (2013) and beyond
Even though NOAA is the OPR, multi-agency teams are working all the issues involved with the cube
The FAA is leading the Integration effort and this is just getting started
In summary…
NextGen will require significant changes in the way weather information is produced
There will be a major paradigm shift
NOAA will be the office of primary responsibili8ty to build the Weather information Database
However, it is a multi-agency effort to decide what goes in the WIDB
The FAA (NNEW) is leading the integration effort in getting things going

25. Summary
The WIDB will clearly have benefits to NOAA and the NWS beyond aviation
There are many important science issues, including consistency, model resolution, observation strategies, and verification which must be addressed as we move toward a comprehensive 4-D Wx Cube
In addition…
The Weather Information Database will clearly benefit NOAA and the NWS beyond just aviation.
Also, many important science issues will have to be addressed prior to a comprehensive 4-D weather cube
NextGen is a transformational program for the NWS/NOAA.

26. BACKGROUND SLIDES What can we leverage….
The following are a few items already in place or a work-in-progress, we can leverage as we move into the NextGen era.

27. What can we leverage? Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS)
Extremely popular aviation weather web service
Not just a display capability
Already has many NextGen data service capabilities
Data service easily capable of supporting the standards and protocols envisioned with NextGen
Has existing capability to support 4D data cube
Slices, dices, and returns a subset of data (flight paths or subset cubes)
We can definitely leverage ADDS as a part of NextGen
It already has many NextGen data service capabilities
Already contains tools, such as the flight path tool or subset cubes
It’s the honest broker – gathers data – makes objective decisions

28. What can we leverage? National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
Could be called the “SAS” of public weather forecast mission
Net-centric approach
Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical
Logistically very complicated if to be populated by each WFO
Also will incorporate NDFD into NextGen
Could be considered the SAS of public forecasts
You populate with model data – the forecaster nudges the data to make it more representative
Need to add aviation parameters in the vertical
Currently testing this at the AWU (and soon AWC) to generate Sigmets
But how do we incorporate this nationally? – logistically could be very complicated if populated at each WFO

29. What can we leverage?
Interactive Calibration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D)
Aviation weather research community (NCAR) now producing 4-D (x, y, z, t) gridded guidance for parameters such as turbulence and icing (RUC2-based)
operational forecasters may be able to add skill to the forecast guidance
Interacting with a 4-D data set containing multiple parameters presents a huge challenge, operationally
Alaska AAWU working with IC4D and has provided positive feedback
Interactive Collaboration of Aviation Grids in 4 Dimensions (IC4D) is being tested at the AWU (and soon at the AWC)
NCAR is also now providing 4-D gridded data for turbulence and icing
How can the forecasters add values to this guidance?
Incorporating all of this into operations appears to be a great challenge.

30. What can we leverage? Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP)
Hourly updates of GFS MOS data for aviation
Uses hourly observations (METAR, lightning, and radar data) to update MOS guidance
Statistically outperforming persistence and MOS during early forecast periods
Currently have gridded probabilistic thunderstorm forecasts
Moving toward other gridded products, including probabilistic ceiling height and visibility forecasts
LAMP – outperforming MOS in the short-term
LAMP also has hourly updates
It has gridded forecast capabilities with thunderstorm forecasts
And, is moving toward incorporating other gridded fields, including ceiling height and visibility
We need to figure out where the forecaster fits in here…
If LAMP os performing well in the short-term, but not performing as well from the 2-12 hour range, then forecasters could add value in the long-term…so this is something that needs to be worked out.

31. What can we leverage? Auto-nowcaster
a program to determine the role of the forecaster in providing value- added enhancements to automated, gridded aviation convective products
goal is to improve the consistency, reliability, and accuracy of 0-2 hour convective forecast products for automated aviation weather digital products (4-D grids) for the NAS
being considered in 2009 as part of a multi-agency NextGen demo in Florida
Auto-nowcaster is currently being tested at Fort Worth, TX
Trying to improve the 0-2 hour convective forecast products, is what Auto-nowcaster is doing…
It signifies a boundary for initiation to occur and then forecasts convection in the 0-2 hour time range.
Auto-nowcaster will also likely be tested in Melbourne, FL in the near future.

32. Thanks for your time! Any questions?
Please contact
Thanks for your time! If you have any questions concerning this presentation, please contact