1. Demographic Change and Challenges for Social Policy in the UK and Europe

2. What is Demographic Analysis?

3. Thinking demographically Fertility rates/mortality rates Replacement rate (2.1) Dependency ratios Natural population increase migration/inmigration Household formation Household dissolution

5. Strategic/Political Importance Geo-politics of demographic ‘weight’- ie.the relative size of populations Pro-natalist policies Size of the labour force Structure of demand/consumption/internal markets

7. EUROPE`S DECLINING POPULATION

8. “Some countries, like Spain, Italy and Japan, have fallen so far below replacement fertility that their total population in each successive generation will be more than 30 per cent smaller than in the previous one. Absent large- immigration from less-developed countries, Japan and much of Europe will be losing population at a rate of well over 1 per cent per year, year after year, until they dwindle to a fraction of their current sizes towards the end of the 21 st century.” (Frances Fukayama, 1999,The Great Disruption)

9. EUROPE`S DECLINING WORKING POPULATION

10. EUROPE`S AGING POPULATION

11. Shifting Dependency Ratios

13. Delayed departure from the parental home-England

14. Other key trends/issues Rising divorce rates-nearly one divorce for every two marriages in the EU25 Increasing cohabitation-one third of all babies born outside marriage in the EU25 Rising lone parenthood Later age at marriage

15. Major policy issues A mobile Europe? -low levels of mobility between EU states over last three decades -will enlarged EU change this situation? Pensions and retirement-ageing populations/longevity/falling proportion of working population relative to total population