1. Coupled and Forced Solutions of MJO: Implication for Prediction Bin Wang, Xiouhua Fu, Tim Li University of Hawaii

2. Are MJO or boreal summer ISO reproducible in forced AGCM simulation (AMIP)? Atmospheric only model may significantly loss of reproducibility and predictability. Bifurcation of the coupled and forced solutions due to IC and BC errors.

3.  Atmospheric Model: ECHAM4.6 T30 (3.75 o ).  Ocean Model: 2.5-layer Intermediate Model, 2 o x1 o  Coupling: daily, Full, No flux correction  Integration 16 years (10 years) (CTL and sensitivity) Regional Hybrid Coupled Model

6. Boreal summer ISO (northward propagation over Indian monsoon region)

8. Coherent evolutions among convection, surface winds and SST (Observations)

9. Phase Relationships between Rainfall and SST

10. Design of four sensitivity experiments Labels Initial Condition Boundary Condition CPL(CTL) ECMWF analysis at January 1, 1988 Direct coupling (Save SST for ECHAMDATM) ECHAM (BC): Forced Same as above Truncated SST from CPL CPL(BC) Same as above Indirect coupling (Pass truncated SST to atmosphere) ECHAM (IC) Forced 1-day difference Forced by SST from CPL(I)

12. CMAP Rainfall Coupled Daily Forced Mean Forced

13. CPL(CTL) ECHAM (BC) Forced CPL(BC) ECHAM (IC) Forced Fu and Wang 2003

14. Regressed Fields from the Control Coupled Run

15. Thank You !