1. Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin James Battin Krista Bartz Mary Ruckelshaus Hiroo Imaki Matthew Wiley Elizabeth Korb Richard Palmer NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center University of Washington Civil & Environmental Engineering Climate Science in the Public Interest

2. 1999: Seven salmon Ecologically Sensitive Units (ESUs) are listed as “threatened” under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA). 1998 -1999 Washington legislature passed the Salmon Recovery Act created watershed planning process to identify recovery actions 2000: The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) convened the Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team (TRT) to develop delisting criteria and provide technical guidance for recovery planning Background

4. Local Evidence of Climate Change Declining snowpack Shifts in timing of runoff Declining trend on overall runoff volume

5. Evidence of Climate Change Seasonal trends – by station

6. stream flow & stream temperature Land Cover & Land Form Data Climate Model (GFDL, Hadley) Hydrology Model (DHSVM) air temperature & precipitation Salmon Pop. Model (SHIRAZ) Salmon Abundance Predicted Atmospheric CO 2 Habitat Capacity

7. 2025 2050

8. 2025 2050

10. Results Winter stream flows increase Summer stream flows decrease Stream temperatures rise No Change in Land Use 20502025

11. Results Winter stream flows increase Summer stream flows decrease Stream temperatures rise No Change in Land Use 20502025

12. Results Winter stream flows increase Summer stream flows decrease Stream temperatures rise No Change in Land Use 20502025

13. Climate and Landcover Impacts on Chinook Salmon

15. Conclusions The projected climate change scenarios have a profoundly negative impact on Snohomish basin Chinook salmon populations. Restoration efforts can offset some of these impacts

16. Conclusions Totals using GFDL based Climate information Totals using HadCM3 based Climate information

17. Caveats GFDL is a more extreme climate scenario. Both models are on the warmer side of the newest IPCC projections. Timing of climate change is uncertain. Salmon harvest, hatchery operations, and ocean conditions were all held constant.

18. Climate Impacts on Salmon Recovery in the Snohomish River Basin James Battin Krista Bartz Mary Ruckelshaus Hiroo Imaki Matthew Wiley Elizabeth Korb Richard Palmer NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center University of Washington Civil & Environmental Engineering Climate Science in the Public Interest