1. THE DURABILITY OF REVOLUTIONARY REGIMES: THE CASE OF THE USSR LUCAN WAY, UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO

2. WHAT EXPLAINS AUTHORITARIAN DURABILITY? Revolutionary Regimes among the most durable forms of authoritarianism in the modern era Average tenure of Revolutionary Regimes since 1900: 31 years Average tenure of non-Revolutionary Regimes since 1900: 16 years

3. REVOLUTIONARY DURABILITY IN THE FACE OF SEVERE CRISIS Large scale famine (USSR, China, N Korea) Severe economic downturn (Zimbabwe in the 2000s. Cuba in the 1990s) Severe external pressure (Russia after 1917; Cuba, Iran, Vietnam)

4. REVOLUTIONARY REGIME Authoritarian regimes that emerge out of sustained, ideological, and violent struggle from below, and whose establishment is accompanied by mass mobilization and significant efforts to transform state structures and the existing social order.

5. REVOLUTIONARY REGIMES SINCE 1900

6. REVOLUTIONARY REGIMES Classic Social Revolutions:  China, Cuba, Iran, Mexico, Russia Radical national liberation struggles:  Angola, Mozambique, Vietnam, Zimbabwe

7. A THEORY OF REVOLUTIONARY DURABILITY

8. COHESIVE PARTY Blood + Ideas = Unity  Armed struggle creates “military ethos”  Ideological Polarization creates “us and them” ethos  Defection = treason  Fear of counter-revolution

9. STRONG AND LOYAL OF ARMY  Coups greatest threat to authoritarian regimes  Creation of new armed services from scratch ties security services to ruling party  fewer coups

10. DESTRUCTION OF ALTERNATIVES Not just institutions but societal context War facilitates destruction of alternative power centers:  old army, church, other parties Increased room for error

11. THE USSR: A DURABLE AUTHORITARIAN REGIME 74 years Multiple and severe crises: Early death of founding leader (1922-24) Famines 1921, 1932-3 War with Germany Cold War

12. USSR AND THE COMMUNIST PARTY-STATE Invention of the authoritarian party state: Samuel Huntington: CPSU the “ultimate organizational weapon and the chief Bolshevik contribution to modern politics.”

13. What is to be Done? (1902) Revolution to be created by small, disciplined, vanguard party LENIN AND SOVIET DURABILITY

14. Party racked by indiscipline before 1917 Focus on intellectual debate Obedience to Lenin “the exception rather than the rule” Local autonomy of party cells BUT: BOLSHEVIKS NOT “LENINIST” BEFORE 1917

15. MY THEORY: ORIGINS OF SOVIET DURABILITY Bolshevik radicalism  polarization and civil war  Extremely Disciplined Party Powerful and Loyal Security Services Destruction of alternative centers of power

16. BOLSHEVIK RADICALISM Break with Mensheviks in 1903 Immediate seizure of power by Socialist Parties Nationalization of land, end of private property Acceptance/Embrace of Red Terror

17. BOLSHEVIK RADICALISM AND CIVIL WAR October Revolution creates challenge to domestic and world capitalist order Domestic: Old army/bureaucracy, land owning class International: Russia “a Socialist oasis on the middle of the raging imperialist sea.”

18. CIVIL WAR AND PARTY DISCIPLINE Civil war “formative education” for the party leadership; almost all top leaders until the 1950s active in civil war (1) life and death struggle convinces local party officials to seek greater subordination to the center; (2) the infusion of new tougher cadres: “leather jacketed thugs”

19. CIVIL WAR AND THE SECURITY SERVICES Initially – standing army not envisioned in Socialist state Cheka (KGB) a product of “hasty innovation” Brutality of civil war + Marxist class war  Normalization of extreme brutality Cheka fused with party Lenin: “A good Communist is also a good Chekist” Cheka high esprit de corp

20. CIVIL WAR AND DESTRUCTION OF ALTERNATIVES Old Army After war: coopted, dead or in exile Monarchy/landowners Other sociailst parties (SRs, Mensheviks) Motivates destruction of SRs, Mensheviks  Polarization  self limiting of Menshevik/SR opposition

21. POSTWAR SOVIET STATE Miraculous victory Small party in 1917  world’s first Socialist state Isolated Internationally International pariah  War scare Isolated from rest of population Kronstadt rebellion 1921

22. USSR AFTER THE CIVIL WAR Limited economic transformation No Central Planning “real” social revolution 1929?

23. CORE ELEMENTS OF SOVIET SYSTEM THE PARTY Quasi-religious conception of party discipline – ban on factions 1921 First mover advantage and succession struggle Leather jacketed thugs

24. CORE ELEMENTS OF SOVIET SYSTEM THE KGB Effective: Cheka a “vast and effective apparatus” Brutal: names of Cheka change but prerogatives and power the same Stomach for violence against political enemies Loyal: strong ties to party No coup attempt until 1991

25. CORE ELEMENTS OF SOVIET SYSTEM NO RIVALS No serious organized opposition Anti Soviet forces “exhausted and prostrate or pulverized”  Room for error by regime

26. DURABILITY IN FACE OF CRISIS Party discipline and succession crisis 1922- 1924 Trotsky: “My party right or wrong.. I know one cannot be right against the party... for history has not created other ways for the realization of what is right” Others support Stalin for fear of counter-revolution Famine 1921, 1932-33 WWII

27. CONCLUSION Not leadership Ideas and Violence and durability