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20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 1 Climate Prediction Near You Your Logo Here Site-Specific and Regional Climate Monthly.

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Presentation on theme: "20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 1 Climate Prediction Near You Your Logo Here Site-Specific and Regional Climate Monthly."— Presentation transcript:

1 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 1 Climate Prediction Near You Your Logo Here Site-Specific and Regional Climate Monthly Timestep, Years in Advance Precipitation, Temperature Patterns, Trends Your Ag Decisions: cropping rotations, genetics selection, stocking rates, feed reserves, marketing, insurance, ranking operations priorities and timing, fertility levels, planning, investments…

2 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 2 Dynamic Predictables “As Above, So Below”--Thoth Climate Prediction, site-specific and regional Each state divided into climate divisions(3- 10) many based on USDA crop reporting districts. 344 NCDC climate divisions in continental US Overall picture: 1 st Stage Model has prediction relative to Average (Above, Near, Below) for each climate division of 344 on a US map Detailed: Full prediction for either a climate division or based upon a nearby weather station or custom aggregation

3 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 3 Prediction Accuracy: Nino3 AAAS 2006 Symposium on El Nino Predictability

4 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 4 199804 NINO3 CONSECUTIVE 15 MONTH MODES

5 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 5 USA OREGON COASTAL PRECIPITATION

6 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 6 August 2005 precipitation. Hurricane Katrina in midst of predicted severe drought

7 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 7 October 2005 precipitation. Hurricane Wilma in Florida Climate Divisions 4,5,6,7. 1st Stage Model indicates Above Average. Detailed model, other factors strongly suggest hurricane in FloridaCDs 4,5,6,7.

8 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 8 March 2006 precipitation: dry on top of already dry

9 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 9 April 2006 wets up May back dry most places

10 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 10 COMPARE DYNAPRED AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

11 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 11 Sherwood North Dakota Canadian Border precip

12 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 12 Northwest North Dakota Temperature

13 20060304Dynamic Predictables Columbia, Missouri 1.573.815.0520 13 Testimonial from Belleville, Illinois--December 29, 2005 “Best planning tool for weather a farmer can have! Useful for fieldwork windows, especially in the spring! Also good for variety selection – matching the season. I like the personal updates the best – the ability to call to get specific questions answered as the season progresses. Your record the past three years has been outstanding!!”


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