1. Semester 2, 20091 Re-cap from last week Single person decision theory accounting information used to update expected payoffs; applies to share markets market efficiency with respect to public information; new information is rapidly priced; implications for disclosure; summing up the role for accounting information. will dictate the informativeness of price

2. Semester 2, 20092 306-684 Financial Accounting Seminar 4 – the Information Perspective on Decision Usefulness

3. Semester 2, 20093 Learning Objectives To appreciate the information perspective on decision usefulness An application of decision theory and efficient markets theory to understand investor decision making using financial accounting information To introduce empirical capital markets research in accounting Ball & Brown [1968] and others

4. Semester 2, 20094 Learning Objectives (cont.) To understand the importance of the following metrics/concepts for understanding the role of accounting information in the capital market earnings response coefficients; persistent/transitory components of earnings; earnings quality. To appreciate the limitations of the research for policy recommendations.

5. Semester 2, 20095 Learning objectives cont. Key terms/concepts for the week: market model abnormal returns event study (and associated difficulties)

6. Semester 2, 20096 The Information Perspective Until the last few years, the information perspective on decision usefulness has dominated financial accounting theory and practice The information perspective of decision usefulness: Classifies people as Bayesian when making their investment decisions. Assumes that what users require is information about firms that leads to revisions of prior expectations in an efficient capital market.

7. Semester 2, 20097 Central questions How do we establish what accounting information has an impact on capital markets - enabling users to revise prior expectations? What can accounting regulators learn from this impact about what accounting information should be reported in financial reports?

8. Semester 2, 20098 The Information Perspective Characteristics: Based on single person decision theory It is the investor’s responsibility to predict future firm performance and make investment decisions; It is the accountant’s role to supply useful financial statement information, to assist investors

9. Semester 2, 20099 The Information Perspective Characteristics (cont.) Depends on efficient securities market theory The market can interpret information from any source OK to use HC accounting in financial statements proper (lower relevance, higher reliability), supplemented by lots of information in notes (e.g. RRA, MD&A, more relevant, less reliable)

10. Semester 2, 200910 Market Response to Accounting Information Could ask users whether information is useful...…. Recall the theoretical links (predictions of investor behaviour): Investors have prior beliefs about future performance Release of accounting income number is a potential information source, causing belief revision Resulting investment decisions – increased trading volume, share price movement

11. Semester 2, 200911 Market Response to Accounting Information Hard to prove, Lots of empirical evidence that market responds to accounting information We concentrate mainly on the information content of net income

12. Semester 2, 200912 Market response studies How do we set up a study that tests decision usefulness??? Decide on observation window Identify expected return Determine market response

13. Semester 2, 200913 Identify observation window Causation v. Association Narrow window studies Evidence that financial statement information causes security price change Wide window studies Evidence that financial statement information is associated with security price change

14. Semester 2, 200914 Market Response to Accounting Information Expected returns All expected income is already reflected in share price; so Empirically model relationship between unexpected (abnormal) earnings and abnormal share returns To calculate abnormal returns, we need to know expected returns (use the market model) To calculate abnormal earnings, we need to know expected earnings

15. Semester 2, 200915 Estimation of Investors’ Earnings Expectations Under ideal conditions: expected income = accretion of discount Non-ideal conditions Time series approach Zero persistence: all earnings unexpected (no info in last year’s E about future E) Complete persistence: proxy unexpected earnings by change in earnings Analysts’ forecasts Now commonly used

16. Semester 2, 200916 Event studies Testing the decision usefulness of the information released for each firm, collect its actual return for the period prior to the earnings announcement; collect the market return for the same period; run the regression R jt =  +  j R mt +  jt This gives an estimate of  and  and the regression model Obtain R jt=0 and use the model to compute  jt=0

17. Semester 2, 200917 Ball & Brown [1968] Ball and Brown 1968 The first study to document statistically a share price response to reported net income Foundation of empirical financial accounting research Methodology still used today improved a little...

18. Semester 2, 200918 Ball & Brown Methodology For each sample firm: Estimate investors’ earnings expectations (proxied by last year’s actual) Classify each firm as GN (actual earnings > expected) or BN (vice versa) Estimate abnormal share return for month of release of earnings (month 0), using market model

19. Semester 2, 200919 Ball & Brown Methodology (cont.) Calculate average abnormal share return for GN firms for Month 0 Calculate average abnormal share return for BN firms for Month 0 Repeat for Months -1, -2,…, -11, and Months +1, +2,…,+6. Plot results See Figure 5.3

20. Semester 2, 200920 Ball & Brown Conclusion Observations stock market reacts to accounting information; begins to anticipate the GN or BN in earnings 12 months prior to month of earnings announcement Why? Prices lead earnings Consistent with securities market efficiency and underlying rational decision theory Contrary to critics, HC-based statements are decision-useful! Note post-earnings announcement drift

21. Semester 2, 200921 Building on Ball and Brown Huge impact of this research based on the following: consistent with decision theory accounting earnings appear useful non-cash accounting policies were claimed as irrelevant Can we establish how and when accounting information is more or less useful?

22. Semester 2, 200922 Building on Ball and Brown…. Many other questions followed Does the amount of abnormal share price change correlate with the amount of GN/BN? Remember that BB’s study was based only on the sign of UE Yes Many other questions evaluated Market response to information contained in new accounting standards, auditor changes etc Response to Balance sheet information? Hard to find

23. Semester 2, 200923 Building on Ball and Brown…. Different question Do characteristics of unexpected earnings affect magnitude of abnormal share return? Earnings response coefficient [ERC] measures the extent of share price return in response to unexpected earnings ERC is measuring the average ‘info impact’

24. Semester 2, 200924 Factors Affecting ERC What do we know about ERC? Risk (β): Higher β – Lower ERC Capital Structure: Higher D/E – Lower ERC Earnings persistence: Higher persistence – Higher ERC Earnings quality: Higher quality – Higher ERC Growth opportunities: Higher growth opportunities – Higher ERC Investor expectations: more precise analysts’ forecasts – more similar investor expectations – higher ERC Firm size?

25. Semester 2, 200925 Types of earnings events Permanent: ERC can be > than 1, expected to persist indefinitely Transitory: ERC=1, affecting earnings in current year only Price irrelevant: ERC=0

26. Semester 2, 200926 Earnings quality-higher quality, higher ERC High quality earnings represented by the high values of the main diagonal probabilities of our info system But how is earnings quality measured? Use net income=CFO + accruals CFO, not subject to estimation error Accruals: discretionary judgement If no estimation error, high quality earnings If there is estimation error, then either earnings management or a mistake

27. Semester 2, 200927 More on Earnings Quality How to measure? Main diagonal probabilities of information system Relationship of accruals and operating cash flows Fundamentals, e.g., Δinventory/sales A role for balance sheet information Line-by-line evaluation

28. Semester 2, 200928 Implications of ERC Research Why are ERCs important? They tell us what things affect the information content of accounting earnings Further supports single-person decision theory and efficient markets theory Importance of full disclosure So investors can evaluate earnings quality and earnings persistence….. So, improved Decision Usefulness of financial statements

29. Semester 2, 200929 Implications of Capital Markets Research for Accounting Policy Is the “best” accounting policy the one that results in the greatest share price reaction? Not necessarily Benefit to investors v. benefit to society Accounting information a “public good” Use by one person doesn’t prevent use by another Firms cannot charge for it More on this in Seminars 10 and 11 on Regulation!

30. Semester 2, 200930 Conclusions The role of accounting information is to expand and improve the stock of information available to the market, in order to improve investor decision making Empirical research informs us if this role is being achieved