1. Voting and Decision Rules in the European Union Examination of the Draft Treaty Establishing a Constitution for the European Union Econ 270 – European Economic Integration Dr. Diego Méndez-Carbajo 5/27/05 Presented By: Stephanie Panozzo and Peter Brown Peter Brown

2. Introduction of Topic and Discussion What are voting and decision rules? What are voting and decision rules? The process in which any bill, treaty, referendum, etc., gets passed into enactment by way of qualified majority votingThe process in which any bill, treaty, referendum, etc., gets passed into enactment by way of qualified majority voting We will be discussing the disadvantages of the proposed voting system and decision making processes in the treaty forming a constitution for the European Union We will be discussing the disadvantages of the proposed voting system and decision making processes in the treaty forming a constitution for the European Union We concluded this for 2 main reasons: We concluded this for 2 main reasons: Reductions in voting power for member states that are average to smaller in population; Increases in voting power for larger countries, namely the UK, Germany, Italy, FranceReductions in voting power for member states that are average to smaller in population; Increases in voting power for larger countries, namely the UK, Germany, Italy, France Reductions in voting power for all EU citizens; Increases in powers for politiciansReductions in voting power for all EU citizens; Increases in powers for politicians

3. Thesis “The proposed reforms of voting rules will likely favor the four largest countries in the EU; as a result, these reforms are unlikely to go forward.” “The proposed reforms of voting rules will likely favor the four largest countries in the EU; as a result, these reforms are unlikely to go forward.”

4. Institutions Responsible for Voting and Decision Making European Commission European Commission Proposes laws; no votingProposes laws; no voting “Executive Branch” – Guardian of the Treaties and responsible for monitoring and policing EU law“Executive Branch” – Guardian of the Treaties and responsible for monitoring and policing EU law European Parliament European Parliament Proposes some laws; approves all lawsProposes some laws; approves all laws Number of representatives from a particular country is dependent on population of that countryNumber of representatives from a particular country is dependent on population of that country Not responsible to or appointed by governments of member statesNot responsible to or appointed by governments of member states “Legislative Branch” – Power to legislate“Legislative Branch” – Power to legislate Shares budgetary authority with the Council of the European Union Shares budgetary authority with the Council of the European Union Approves nomination of Commissioners Approves nomination of Commissioners Supervision over all institutions Supervision over all institutions

5. Council of the European Union Council of the European Union Council of the European Union Each member state appoints a minister; rotating presidency Does most of the groundwork on any proposed legislation Voting done by unanimity on matters of: Industry, taxation, culture, R&D programs, and social funds Voting done by qualified majority on matters of: Agriculture, fisheries, the internal market, the environment, and transportation

6. Current and Proposed Voting Systems Current voting system for Council of Ministers established by the Treaty of Nice (2001) Current voting system for Council of Ministers established by the Treaty of Nice (2001) Became effective November of 2004 Became effective November of 2004 A vote is deemed to have been passed by qualified majority when it has:A vote is deemed to have been passed by qualified majority when it has: Gathered 232 out of the total of 321 votes (72%) Gathered 232 out of the total of 321 votes (72%) Is backed by a majority of member states (13 of 25) Is backed by a majority of member states (13 of 25) These countries represent at least 62% of the EU population These countries represent at least 62% of the EU population Voting system criticized for complexity Voting system criticized for complexity European Union Draft Constitution submitted to the Council of European Ministers in July of 2003 European Union Draft Constitution submitted to the Council of European Ministers in July of 2003 The EU draft constitution attempts to lower the barrier for a vote to be passed with two simple requirements: The EU draft constitution attempts to lower the barrier for a vote to be passed with two simple requirements: The support of 50% of EU member statesThe support of 50% of EU member states These countries represent at least 60% of the EU's populationThese countries represent at least 60% of the EU's population First measure guarantees a measure of influence to smaller statesFirst measure guarantees a measure of influence to smaller states Second measure works in favor of the larger states.Second measure works in favor of the larger states.

7. Brief Introduction to Voting Power: Voting Theory Lionel S. Penrose Lionel S. Penrose Developed method to calculate voting powerDeveloped method to calculate voting power Voting Power: The mathematical probability that a configuration of votes cast in the council is such that the resolution is passed if the member votes for the proposal, and rejected otherwiseVoting Power: The mathematical probability that a configuration of votes cast in the council is such that the resolution is passed if the member votes for the proposal, and rejected otherwise “One must calculate the number of ways in which a given party may form a coalition with other parties in order to gain the required parliamentary majority”“One must calculate the number of ways in which a given party may form a coalition with other parties in order to gain the required parliamentary majority” John F. Banzhaf III John F. Banzhaf III Similar index became popular and widely usedSimilar index became popular and widely used Known as the Banzhaf Index (β)Known as the Banzhaf Index (β)

8. Brief Introduction to Voting Power: Examples Small Model example: Small Model example: Party A has 51% of the seatsParty A has 51% of the seats Party B has 49% of the seatsParty B has 49% of the seats Decision rules are made by majority rule (more than 50%)Decision rules are made by majority rule (more than 50%) Party A has 100% of the powerParty A has 100% of the power Larger Example: Larger Example: Party B breaks up, half go to party A, the rest split equally between parties C and D Party B breaks up, half go to party A, the rest split equally between parties C and D In summation, distinction between the number of votes a country gets and it’s voting power is critical to our discussionIn summation, distinction between the number of votes a country gets and it’s voting power is critical to our discussion Party Beginning of Term After Breakup of Party B Beginning of Term (β) After Breakup of Party B (β) A425450%100% B24-- ≈ 16.7% - C2026 0% D1420 0%

9. Argumentation for Thesis Declaration: Declaration: “Reductions in voting power for member states that are average to smaller in population; Increases in voting power for larger countries, namely the UK, Germany, Italy, France”“Reductions in voting power for member states that are average to smaller in population; Increases in voting power for larger countries, namely the UK, Germany, Italy, France” Evidence: Evidence: Treaty of NiceTreaty of Nice Gathered 232 out of the total of 321 votes (72%) Gathered 232 out of the total of 321 votes (72%) Is backed by a majority of member states (13 of 25) Is backed by a majority of member states (13 of 25) These countries represent at least 62% of the EU population These countries represent at least 62% of the EU population Constitution DraftConstitution Draft The support of 50% of EU member states The support of 50% of EU member states These countries represent at least 60% of the EU's population These countries represent at least 60% of the EU's population The removal of the 1 st condition from the Treat of Nice is significant because the mathematical probability of only meeting this condition and not the other two is extremely lowThe removal of the 1 st condition from the Treat of Nice is significant because the mathematical probability of only meeting this condition and not the other two is extremely low

10. β Values for Member States: Draft Constitution and Treaty of Nice Gains Losses

11. β Differences With Adoption of Constitution

12. Argumentation for Thesis Declaration: Declaration: “Takes away voting power from citizens and national governments; increases powers for politicians”“Takes away voting power from citizens and national governments; increases powers for politicians” Evidence: Evidence: In addition to Banzhaf Index evidence, the proposed constitution:In addition to Banzhaf Index evidence, the proposed constitution: Centralizes the EU further by taking more powers away from national parliaments and citizens, giving them to a small population of politicians and civil servantsCentralizes the EU further by taking more powers away from national parliaments and citizens, giving them to a small population of politicians and civil servants Example: The Constitution abolishes existing national vetoes and gives new law-making powers to the EU in relation to over 60 policy areas or issues Example: The Constitution abolishes existing national vetoes and gives new law-making powers to the EU in relation to over 60 policy areas or issues Evidence: Evidence: Allows politicians to amend the constitution without need of further treaty ratificationAllows politicians to amend the constitution without need of further treaty ratification “Escalator clause” creates a permanent democratic deficit by allowing policy shifts from unanimity to majority voting in significant areas “Escalator clause” creates a permanent democratic deficit by allowing policy shifts from unanimity to majority voting in significant areas Evidence: Evidence: Eliminates the unanimity voting requirements for a majority of issues that require unanimity for enactmentEliminates the unanimity voting requirements for a majority of issues that require unanimity for enactment EU military operations authorization without international discussionEU military operations authorization without international discussion Allows for the EU Supreme Court to decide fundamental human rightsAllows for the EU Supreme Court to decide fundamental human rights

13. General Consensus in the EU Although unification is a common goal throughout Europe (federalism), many countries are unwilling to give up their national identities and powers to a supreme governing body (nationalism) Although unification is a common goal throughout Europe (federalism), many countries are unwilling to give up their national identities and powers to a supreme governing body (nationalism) Average to smaller populated countries oppose constitution mainly because of poorly constructed and unfavorable voting and decision making proposals, as shown with evidence Average to smaller populated countries oppose constitution mainly because of poorly constructed and unfavorable voting and decision making proposals, as shown with evidence Nationalism contributing cause as wellNationalism contributing cause as well England, Italy, France, Germany England, Italy, France, Germany All strong nationalistic countriesAll strong nationalistic countries Recent polls show lack of support for constitution as well Recent polls show lack of support for constitution as well

14. Conclusion Lack of support for the Draft Constitution is most apparent in the proposed voting and decision making processes, along with a variety of other fallacies Lack of support for the Draft Constitution is most apparent in the proposed voting and decision making processes, along with a variety of other fallacies The adoption of the Draft Constitution is highly unlikely The adoption of the Draft Constitution is highly unlikely