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2. 2 כנס לקוחות הזנת בעלי חיים 25.12.07 OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN

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5. 5 Soybean led recovery expected next year, but will remain well below levels of two years ago

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7. 7 First decline since 95/96, decline is record large

8. 8 Record yearly decline in world soybean production, assuming normal South American yields

9. 9 Relatively small increase in South America production is expected. Would not take much of a crop problem before production is lower than the previous year

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11. 11 What is La Niña? La Niña is characterized by when the tropical seas of the Pacific off the coast of Latin America cool down, while the waters turn warmer towards Australia, the Philippines and Indonesia. the presence of La Niña is often quoted by the National Hurricane Center to be a cause for increased Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, partly because of higher sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin. The hurricane season of 1995 is also likely to have been influenced by that year's La Niña conditions.National Hurricane CenterAtlantic tropical cyclonehurricane season of 1995 La Niña can send weather systems into havoc over vast areas, delivering huge deluges of rain over the Far East and tropical Australia, while western parts of Latin America turn much drier than usual. This is the flip side of El Niño, although La Niña lasts for a shorter time, usually no more than a year.

12. 12 Caution, La Nina could reduce yields for Southern Brazil

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14. 14 La Nina could increase risk for adverse weather and lower yield

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17. 17 US stocks are declining to minimum levels. No signs of sufficient rationing yet. Supply tightness in the 08/09 season could become more severe if a large increase in area is not secured.

18. 18 Record spec net long position, as is the case with soybean meal. May not see a major washout, or liquidation for another year. Index funds and other investor funds keep entering the market in earnest

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20. 20 Soybeans

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22. 22 Soybean Meal outlook

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25. 25 Expect the meal/corn ratio to move to 2.5. Based on a corn price of $3.15-$4.75 per bushel, soybean meal would be $288-$424 per ton

26. 26 Record speculator net long position, but there appears to be a large pool of investor money still moving into long commodities. A major washout may be a year away

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28. 28 Expect sideways to lower trend for crush margins as US soybean supply tightens and soybeans become more difficult to secure. November soybean stocks at mills were already lower than expected.

29. 29 Increasing supply of DDGS due to growth in ethanol production. So far, little impact on displacing soybean meal

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31. 31 Soybean Meal

32. 32 Soy Complex

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34. 34 Corn outlook

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36. 36 Expect the soybean/corn ratio to trend higher next year. During the marketing year, will expect spikes above 3.0. The new Energy Bill supports ethanol and will make it more difficult to secure more soybean acres

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38. 38 The capacity to bring new land into production is limited.

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43. 43 Ethanol keeps shifting the price curve upwards. The price curve is likely higher than the line running through 06/07.

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45. 45 The cash picture

46. 46 Futures Soybeans

47. 47 Futures Soy Meal

48. 48 Futures Corn

49. 49 Cash Soybeans

50. 50 Cash Soy Meal

51. 51 Cash Corn

52. 52 Thank you!

53. 53 Soybean Oil VD Light Crude mineral Oil

54. 54 Freight

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