1. The TPI Approach zStrategic thinking zStrategic thinking tools zSystems thinking zSystem dynamics tools

2. Strategic Thinking zMission zMandates zStakeholders zStrategic options zAction programs zGoals zPolitical feasibility zMeans to ends zOwnership

3. System Dynamics zDynamic thinking zFeedback thinking zQuantitative thinking yThinking about accumulations yThinking algebraically zLaboratory thinking yComputer simulation experiments

4. Cognitive Shifts Required zVerb phrases to quantities zRich detail to useful aggregation zArrow links to algebra zGoals as ‘heads’ to goals in goal-seeking feedback loops zEvents to dynamic behavior zDecisions to ‘policy structure’

5. Hints from Strategic Thinking to Look Deeper zA head that looks like a means or a tail y…suggests on the verge of a feedback loop zCausal loops in the cause map y…suggests dynamic analysis is needed zNumbers are needed to be sure y…suggests simulation is needed

6. Goals as Heads

7. Goals in goal-seeking loops Internal changes Unintended effects

8. Two kinds of feedback loops zPositive loops yself-reinforcing ygrowth producing ydestabilizing yaccelerating yeven number of –’s zSymbolized by zNegative loops ycounteracting ygoal seeking ystabilizing ybalancing yodd number of –’s zSymbolized by

9. Examples of Reinforcing Loops Births per year Population

10. Typical Reinforcing Loop Behaviors Graph for Businesses 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 0 25 50 75100 Time (year) Graph for Population 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 25 50 75100 Time (year)

11. Self-reinforcing dynamics in the GORA case?

12. Graph for Momentum 8 4 0 -4 -8 0 10 20 30 40 Time Typical Counteracting Loop Behaviors Graph for Inventory 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 10 20 30 40 Time(Week) Graph for Population 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 0 25 50 75100 Time (Year)

13. Guidelines for Conceptualization zFocus on a problem. yDon’t try to build a model of a system. zGraph dynamics of key variables. yFocus on patterns of behavior over time, not events yDistinguish obvious stocks and flows from other quantities. zSet model boundaries. yTemporal: the time horizon yConceptual: what’s included and excluded yCausal: what’s endogenous and exogenous zDevelop loop diagrams. yExplain the problem behavior in terms of feedback structure. yStart simply. Build to complexity and completeness.