1. 1 Demographic and travel patterns The use of data and modelling in transport and land use planning Transport and Population Data Centre

2. 2 Demography and geography Travel behaviour Transport infrastructure, services and policies Strategic transport and land use planning

3. Transport and Population Data Centre 3 Strategic land use and transport planning Objectives (healthy, happy, productive, sustainable etc) Managing growth –Where and how to house growth –Employment opportunities –Maximise accessibility to jobs and other desired/required activities Infrastructure, services, policies –Which corridors require capacity? –How best to serve demand for travel Infrastructure and services Demand management Pattern of land use development

4. Transport and Population Data Centre 4 Demography and geography Travel behaviour Transport infrastructure, services and policies Strategic transport and land use planning

5. Transport and Population Data Centre 5 Demography and Geography Composition of population –Census Sources of change –Births, Deaths, Migration Location of change

6. Transport and Population Data Centre 6 Age and gender, Sydney Source: TPDC (2004) NSW State and Regional Population Projections

7. Transport and Population Data Centre 7 Age and gender, coastal NSW Source: TPDC (2004) NSW State and Regional Population Projections

8. Transport and Population Data Centre 8 Sources of population change, NSW Source: ABS (various years) Demographic Statistics (Cat No 3101.0)

9. Transport and Population Data Centre 9 Location of population change, NSW, 2001-2031 Source: TPDC (2004) NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections

10. Transport and Population Data Centre 10 Location of change, Sydney, 2001-2031 Source: TPDC (2004) NSW Statistical Local Area Population Projections

11. Transport and Population Data Centre 11 Employment change, Sydney, 2001-2031 Source: TPDC (2004) GMR Travel Zone Employment Projections

12. Transport and Population Data Centre 12 Containment Approx one quarter of employed Sydney residents live and work in the same LGA This percentage has declined over time from 27% 10 years ago to approximately 25% now Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

13. Transport and Population Data Centre 13 Commercial Centre Employment Centre19962001% change Sydney CBD192,665221,39614.9 N Sydney/Milsons Point33,05636,57610.6 Parramatta29,54235,65820.7 St Leonards/Crs Nest24,95026,0834.5 Pyrmont/Ultimo17,30721,59424.8 Macquarie/North Ryde18,00820,36113.1 Chatswood17,73719,3178.9 Source: TDC Journey to Work Data, 1996 and 2001

14. Transport and Population Data Centre 14 Casualisation of workforce Casual employees are at least 20% of the workforce Contrary to popular belief, almost half are men The growth in casual employees is three times that of growth in employment generally Source: Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (2002) Casual Work in NSW

15. Transport and Population Data Centre 15 Demography and geography Travel behaviour Transport infrastructure, services and policies Strategic transport and land use planning

16. Transport and Population Data Centre 16 Travel behaviour Current pattern of behaviour –Journey to work –Household travel survey –Commercial transport study Trends in behaviour over time

17. Transport and Population Data Centre 17 Current travel: JTW to Centres Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

18. Transport and Population Data Centre 18 Current travel: JTW to Centres Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

19. Transport and Population Data Centre 19 PT mode share to work 2001 Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

20. Transport and Population Data Centre 20 CBD Employment and Rail Patronage Millions (patronage) ‘000s (employment) Sources:State Transit Authority (Sydney Buses Patronage) State Rail Authority (CityRail Patronage) Australian Bureau of Statistics (Estimated Resident Population) CB Richard Ellis (CBD Employment) Millions (population)

21. Transport and Population Data Centre 21 JTW within 500m of rail, Sydney ModeLive <500m Work <500mAll JTW from stationfrom stationtrips Train 34%43%16% Bus 6%15%6% Car 41%32%69% Other 19%10%9% Total 100%100%100% Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work

22. Transport and Population Data Centre 22 JTW over 2km from rail Source: TPDC 2001 Journey to Work ModeLive >2kmWork >2kmAll from station from stationtrips Train 9%3%16% Bus 7%4%6% Car 74%83%69% Other 9%10%9% Total 100%100%100%

23. Transport and Population Data Centre 23 HTS: Reasons for travel (Sydney, Weekday) Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

24. Transport and Population Data Centre 24 HTS: Duration of different types of trips Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

25. Transport and Population Data Centre 25 Methods of travel (Sydney, Weekday) Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

26. Transport and Population Data Centre 26 Methods of travel for different purposes (Sydney, Weekday) Serve passenger Work- related business CommutingPersonal business Social/ Recreation ShoppingEducation/ Child care Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

27. Transport and Population Data Centre 27 Growth in travel, 1999-2002: who and how? (Sydney, Weekday) <11 11-2021-3031-4041-5051-6061-70Over 70 Age group Trips, average weekday, Sydney Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

28. Transport and Population Data Centre 28 Growth in car use per capita: Why? Licence holding Fringe growth Job dispersal Women in workforce Economic prosperity Car ownership

29. Transport and Population Data Centre 29 Growth in car use, 1991-2001 (Sydney, Weekday) Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys Annual % growth

30. Transport and Population Data Centre 30 Growth in car use, 1991-2001 (Sydney, Weekday) Annual % growth Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

31. Transport and Population Data Centre 31 Change in car use by gender, 1991-2001 Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

32. Transport and Population Data Centre 32 Growth in car use, 1991-2001 Full time worker Part time/ Casual StudentRetired/Aged pensioner Keeping house Unemployed Annual % growth Source: TPDC Household Travel Surveys

33. Transport and Population Data Centre 33 Road freight movements SCREENLINESNETWORKPRIOR MATRIX TRIP TABLE MATRIX ESTIMATION PROCEDURE TRIP ENDS

34. Transport and Population Data Centre 34 2002 Heavy Vehicle Movements (GMR) TPDC Commercial Transport Study (CTS) Sydney

35. Transport and Population Data Centre 35 Demography and geography Travel behaviour Transport infrastructure, services and policies Strategic transport and land use planning

36. Transport and Population Data Centre 36 Transport infrastructure, services and policies Road network –Lanes –Speed/flow relationships –Tolls –Parking costs Public transport network –Routes –Stops –Timetables –Fares

37. Transport and Population Data Centre 37 Road and public transport network

38. Transport and Population Data Centre 38 Accessibility

39. Transport and Population Data Centre 39 Demography and geography Travel behaviour Transport infrastructure, services and policies Strategic transport and land use planning Strategic Travel Model

40. Transport and Population Data Centre 40 Travel behaviour model: Strategic Travel Model (STM) Household type model Car ownership model Licence holding model Trip generation Joint destination and mode choice Route assignment

41. Transport and Population Data Centre 41 STM Outputs

42. Transport and Population Data Centre 42 STM Outputs Traffic volumes Road speeds Volume/capacity ratios Slow roads, slow travel Rail patronage by line Rail patronage by section Station ins/outs Trains per section (similarly for bus) Origins/destinations of demand using any selected link (highway or transit) or combinations Trip length distributions VKT, PKT Mode splits Demand - commuter & non- commuter Spider diagrams Time/space diagrams for transit Car travel time contours from any chosen spot Shortest paths Interchange volumes and more...

43. Transport and Population Data Centre 43 STM Outputs Strategic planning –Scenario modelling – test relationships/sensitivities –Long Term Strategic Plan for Rail Project evaluation –Parramatta Rail Link, Transitways –Western Sydney Orbital, Lane Cove Tunnel, M2-F3 –Private sector proposals Policy development –Integrated fares –Air quality management

44. Transport and Population Data Centre 44 DEC airshed modelling of urban development in Sydney Max 1-hr Ozone 2026 scenarios 20 th December 2000

45. Transport and Population Data Centre 45 STM - uses Public Transport Mode Share 2021 (am peak) Assumptions tested No PT investment Trend PT investment North West Sector18.1%24.3% South West Sector19.2%24.7% Sydney Average22.2%25.5%

46. Transport and Population Data Centre 46 STM - uses Recent scenario modelling suggests: –Significant inertia in existing system –Price signals rather than infrastructure more powerful tool –People are very adaptable

47. Transport and Population Data Centre 47 Demography and geography Travel behaviour Transport infrastructure, services and policies Strategic transport and land use planning Strategic Travel Model

48. Transport and Population Data Centre 48 More information: www.planning.nsw.gov.au/tpdc Australasian Transport Research Forum 2005 28-30 September 2005 Sofitel Wentworth Hotel, Sydney