1. Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model Henrik Lund Aalborg University Denmark Aalborg University, September October 2005 PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I:

2. Content: Workshop aproach…!! Development aproach..!! n 1. (23 August): Introduction to studies made by the use of EnergyPLAN. Discussion of participants ideas of PhD projects and potential use of the model. n 2. (30 August): Details inside the model. How does it work? How are the modelling of specific components, units etc? Discussion of PhD-projects: Strengths and weakness of the model? –The period between 23 August and 5 September: Participants install the model and make familiar with the model and make som preliminary analyses. n 3. (6 September): Discussion of participants analyses. Results, problems, room for improvements of the model…!!! Etc..

3. www.plan.aau.dk/~lund n Download EnergyPLAN n Download documentation n Links to journal articles (results) n Links to research reports (Danish)

4. Content 1. The EnergyPLAN model 2. Data and Methodologies 3. Example: Technical Analysis 4. Example: Market Economical Analysis

5. Electricity Excess Production Demand Excess

6. Reference excess production

7. The EnergyPLAN Model Energy System Analysis Model - Excel~Visual Basic~Delphi Pascal - Main focus: Compare different regulation systems ability to integrate and trade RES (Wind) - Simplified modelling of energy system.

8. Windows program:

9. EnergyPLAN Model 6.0 Demands Fixed electricity Flexible electricity District Heating Capacities & Efficiencies CHP, Power plant, Heat Pump, Boiler Heat Storage RES Wind and PV Capacities (MW) Distribution Factor Solar Thermal and CSHP (TWh/year) Regulation Market prises Multiplication factor Addition factor Depend factor Marginal production Cost (Import, export) Stabilisation demands Distribution Data: Market PricesElectricityDistrict H.Wind Regulation strategy: 1. Meeting heat demand 2. Meeting both heat and electricity demand Electricity Market Strategy: Import/export optimisation Critical surplus production: reducing wind, replacing CHP with boiler or heat pump Electric heating and/or Bypass Results: (Annual, monthly and hour by hour values) Heat productions Electricity production Electricity import export Forced electricity surplus production Fuel consumption Payments from import/export CO2 emissions Share of RES Input Output SolarIndustrial CHPPhoto Voltaic Fuel Types of fuel CO2 emission factors Fuel prices

10. Results:

11. EnergyPLAN model ElectricityHeat Technical Market

12. Energy System Wind Power Fuel Power Plant CHP unit CSHP unit Boiler DH-boiler Heat Pump Heat Storage Heat Demand Electricity Demand Import Export Transport Flexible Photo Voltaic Solar Thermal

13. Energy System 6.2 Wind Power Fuel Power Plant CHP unit CSHP unit Boiler DH-boiler Heat Pump Heat Storage Heat Demand Electricity Demand Import Export Transport Flexible Photo Voltaic Solar Thermal Electro- lyser Turbine Water Storage Pump Wave Energy

14. DESIRE project Will include: n Nuclear power.. n Hydro Power…

15. Content 1. The EnergyPLAN model 2. Data and Methodologies 3. Example: Technical Analysis 4. Example: Market Economical Analysis

16. Methodology Inputs: - Reference energy system (Danish CHP) - Different share of different RES Results: - Rate of excess electricity production - Ability to decrease CO2 emission - Ability to exploit exchange on external electricity markets

17. Example of Results:

18. Wind energy Input: n Data from total productions of wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark).

19. Wind power

20. Photo voltaic n Data from the Danish Sol300 project (Total 267 installations, app. 100 included in the data base n Additional “synthetic data” from Test Reference Year

21. Photo Voltaic

22. Wave Power n Calculated from measurements of Wave height and periods in the North Sea n 5 percent efficiency n Max installed capacity

23. Photo Voltaic

24. Comparison of results

25. Content 1. The EnergyPLAN model 2. Data and Methodologies 3. Example: Technical Analysis 4. Example: Market Economical Analysis

26. Electricity Excess Production Demand Excess

27. Reference excess production

28. Reference År 2030

29. Different Energy Systems

30. Electricity Balance and Grid Stability DG (Distributed Generation) RES (Renewable Energy Sources) Centralised CHP and Power Plants Demand Active ComponentsNon Active Components

31. System 1: Activating DG CHP-units DG (Distributed Generation) RES (Renewable Energy Sources) Centralised CHP and Power Plants Demand Active ComponentsNon Active Components

32. System 2: CHP-units and Heat Pumps DG (Distributed Generation) RES (Renewable Energy Sources) Centralised CHP and Power Plants Demand Active ComponentsNon Active Components Heat Pumps

33. System 3: Activating RES via additional demand DG (Distributed Generation) RES (Renewable Energy Sources) Centralised CHP and Power Plants Demand Active ComponentsNon Active Components Heat Pumps Wind Power Electricity for Transport

34. Principle results of technical analyses

35. Electricity Demand 41,1 TWh 17,7 TWh Excess Electricity 8,4 TWh Coal 26.5 TWh Oil 70,9 TWh Biomass 34,5 TWh Natural Gas 68,4 TWh Fuel Total 200,3 TWh 31,8 TWh 39,2 TWh District Heating Grid loss 25 % Heat Demand 62,9 TWh Transport 50,7 TWh Refinery Etc. 17,4 TWh CHP and Power plants Wind Power 41,1 TWh 31,9 TWh 31,0 TWh 17,4 TWh 50,7 TWh 39,9 TWh 92,3 TWh Household & Industry Danish Reference 2020

36. Electricity Demand 37,0 TWh 62,3 TWh Biomass 49,4 TWh Fuel Total 49,4 TWh 14,7 TWh 53,5 TWh District Heating Grid loss 25 % Heat Demand 56,8 TWh Transport (50,7 TWh) equvalent CHP, HP and Power plants Wind Power 37,0 TWh 42,8 TWh 14,0 TWh 18,0 TWh 31,4 TWh Household & Industry Danish Alternative 20?0 Solar thermal 2,1 TWh Photo Voltaic 17,8 TWh H2H2 H2 Electrolyser

37. Content 1. The EnergyPLAN model 2. Data and Methodologies 3. Example: Technical Analysis 4. Example: Market Economical Analysis

38. Modelling of NordPool - Standard system price hour by hour distribution (based on recent years) - Construction of “Wet” “Dry” and “Normal” years (Hydro in Norway) - Modelling of influence for DK trade and splitting in price areas due to bottle- neck in transmission - Modelling of influence from Trade on the German Boarder.

39. Reference regulation system (CO2 Price = 100 DKK/t)

40. Wind Power Production Costs 220 DKK/MWh

41. Different Production Costs and CO2 Prices

42. Feasibility of Alternative Regulation Systems

44. Conclusions: n n If wind production exceeds 5 TWh (equal to 20%) investments in CHP regulation and Heat Pumps are feasible. n Such investments at the same time makes wind power more feasible. For production costs of 220 DKK/MWh and CO2-prices of 100 DKK/t the feasibility of wind power raises from 6 TWh in the reference system to 11 TWh in the “Heat Pump” system.

45. Sensitivity Analysis n Increase in Heat Pump Costs n Variations in CO2 payment n Change in Wind Power costs n Change in fuel costs n Change in CO2 influence on Nordpool n Change in Nordpool average price n Change in import/export to Germany n Change in Nordpool price variations

46. Only small changes in the main results

47. Introduction to the EnergyPLAN model Henrik Lund Aalborg University Denmark Aalborg University, September October 2005 PhD-course: Energy System Analysis I: