1. NYC METEOROLOGY AND UDP MESOSCALE MODELING *Robert Bornstein: SJSU with input from Haider Taha & Erez Weinroth: SJSU Teddy Holt, Julie Pullen, Wm. Thompson: NRL Brian Colle, SUNY/SB *pblmodel@hotmail.com presented at the NYC ACADEMY OF SCIENCES 16 March 2006

2. OUTLINE NYC URBAN IMPACTS – CLIMATE – WEATHER – AIR QUALITY NYC DHS/UDS MESO-MET MODELING – SUNY/SB: real-time ensemble-forecasts for IOPs – NRL/MONTEREY: uCOAMPS for Midtown-tracer – SJSU & ALTOSTRATUS: uMM5 for MSG-tracer

3. Obs: Nocturnal UHI-induced convergence advected downwind of Manhattan C Obs: Daytime building- barrier induced divergence C C D D D

4. Obs: Slow moving cold front: air in lowest 250-m over city was not replaced Obs: Sea-breeze front retarded by building-barrier effect

5. _ Obs: Splits up-wind of city LST

6. Obs: weak urban-induced elevated-inversions: barriers to z-diffusion of canopy-layer pollutants Power plant plume Area-source emissions

7. Obs: sea-breeze front concentrates-pollutants Sea-breeze frontal convergence zone

8. Ensemble Forecast Modeling at Stony Brook University – Dr. Brian A. Colle Motivation: NYC urban-canyon real-time wind-forecasts only as good as BC/IC winds from prognostic numerical- dynamic larger-scale meso-met model Quantify physics and initial condition uncertainty for NYC using real-time 18-member MM5- ensemble Determine skill of system for forecasting for UDP MSG04 & MID05 experiments

9. SUNY/SB: D:1-3: 36, 12, & 4 km SJSU/NRL: D-3: 4 km D-4: 1.33 km D-5: 0.44 km 

10. INITIAL CONDITION ENSEMBLE-MATRIX: each uses #4: Grell-MRF physical combination PHYSICS ENSEMBLE- MATRIX 18-Member MM5 Ensemble (00 UTC cycle) __

11. Stony Brook: UDP Forecast Web-Page

12. MID05 IOP: 12 Aug, 8 AM: NYC (red box) obs: NE ~3 kts Hour-36, 12-km MM5 Ensemble-mean (black): NE 4 kts Blue barbs: physics members Green barbs: IC members (more outliers)

13. SJSU/Altostratus From EPA uMM5: Mason + Martilli (by Dupont) With: Gayno-Seaman TKE with OSU or slab sfc-model

14. larger urban-z 0 = 2.5 m V (m/s)+ deceleration (m/s, shades)  + End of 10 March MSG05 IOP, 13 LST 1.33 km off-shelf MM5 + original urban-z 0 = 0.8 m  z= 10-m: V (m/s) + T (K, shades) max min

15. Non-IOP MSG05 DAY 11 March, 13 LST off-shelf MM5 + urban-z 0 = 0.8 m  V (m/s) + T (K, shades) + _ _ _ Larger urban-z 0 = 2.5 m V(m/s) +Acceleration/Deceleration (m/s, shades)  A D A

16. SJSU uMM5 (1 km) 25 JULY 2001  10-m: V+Temp ( 0 C, colors) 13 LST 14 LST C Blue line = Sea Breeze Front convergence (at max-T) C= Cool Central Park

17. NYC SEA-BREEZE EVENT 9 Aug 2004 William T. Thompson, Teddy Holt, and Julie Pullen Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA

18. A B 2-m: V & θ (shaded) 0430 LST, 9 August 2004 Sea-breeze front passed city

19. Air-Sea Interaction in NYC: Urbanized Mesoscale Modeling with uCOAMPS with Alan Blumberg, SIT & Bob Bornstein, SJSU Julie Pullen & Teddy Holt Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA 03 UTC 09 UTC 15 UTC 24 UTC

20. 0 h urb (m) 50 150 200 100 NS 0 0.2 0.1 Lower Manhattan Midtown Staten Island 58.5 km North-South cross-section Building height AGL (km) N S Midtown Manhattan Brooklyn Staten Island Model Configuration Nest km Nest km  1 36  2 12  3 4  4 1.33  5 0.44 1 2 3 4 Nests 4 & 5: use urban canopy parametrization (B & W; WRF) & hourly ocean-model SSTs

21. Observed SST Nest 4: 1.33 km Nest 5: 0.44 km control SST model SST Realistic High-Resolution SSTs

22. IOP 2: August 12, 2005 (Friday) Shift of winds from NE to E/SE; 2- 3 m/s in morning; sea breeze in afternoon modeled with uCOAPMS 14 LST

23. IOP 3: August 14, 2005 (Sunday) S winds; weak winds (1-3 m/s); hot; cold front located to north, moving through area with showers & storms (lines of convection) in late afternoon 16 UTC August 14

24. COAMPS ® NYC: Nest 5: 0.444 km 10-m winds & 2-m air-temperature (C) 12-h forecast, valid 00 UTC 5 Aug 2004 JFK LGA Winds: every 5 th grid point Subset: Winds every grid point JFK LGA ALSN6 uCOAMPS

25. NYC-OBS REFERENCES Bornstein, 1968: J. Appl. Met.., 7., 575-82. Born. & Johnson, 1977: At. Env., 11, 597-04 Loose & Born., 1977: MWR, 105, 567-71. Born. & Thompson, 1981: JAM, 20, 843-58 Born., 1987: Modeling the Urban BL, AMS, 53 ‑ 93. Gaffen & Born., 1988: Met. & Atmos. Phys, 38, 185 ‑ 94

26. uMM5 References Byun, D., et al., 2004: Modeling effects of land use/land cover modifications on the urban heat island phenomenon and air quality in Houston, Texas. Tech. Note, U. of Houston, 55 pp. Dupont, S., et al., 2003: Simulation of meteorological fields within and above urban and rural canopies with a mesoscale model (MM5). Tech. Rep., NERL/NOAA/ARL, NC, 67 pp. Martilli, A., et al., 2002: An urban surface exchange paramet-erization for mesoscale models. BLM, 104, 261-304.

27. The End Questions?