1. Decision Support Systems (DSS) Dr. Merle P. Martin MIS Department CSU Sacramento

2. Agenda t Ski Resort Planning t What is a DSS? t Unstructured Problems t DSS Components t DSS Examples t Group DSS

3. Ski Area Planning t Ski area designs require u same input u same decision model t Each resort offers : u different types of trails u to different skill levels t Long-range objective: maximize profits for given terrain & market mix

4. Ski Area Planning t Optimum design concentrates on balancing downhill / uphill capacities t System of trails cannot easily be changed once carved t Summer activities complicate design t Industry is capital intensive

5. Ski Resort Planning Primary Objective = Downhill Capacity (Trails) Uphill Capacity (Lifts) Market DemandProduction Capacity

6. Ski Area Planning Terrain Capacity Analysis: t Examine physical attributes of mountain t Create initial set of trails t Determine mountain's downhill capacity (i.e., trail system)

7. Ski Area Planning Terrain Capacity Analysis: t Examine physical attributes of the mountain t Create initial set of trails t Determine mountain's downhill capacity (i.e., trail system) Market Analysis: t Match trail system to market mix

8. Topography Map (Terrain) Steep slope Gentle slope Expert and advanced trails Novice & beginner trail Lifts

9. Physical Design t Physical terrain and constraints u Slope of mountain sides u Physical obstacles (e.g., cliffs, boulders, creeks, etc.) u Aesthetics (i.e., forest scenery) t Designer selects initial layout u Initial set of trails

10. t Downhill capacity of skiers calculated u Number of skiers per acre (judgmental) u Type of skier (i.e., skill level) u Regional density Physical Design

11. Market Analysis t Objective: match trail system to market demands t Seven skier skill levels: u Beginner u Novice u Low intermediate u Intermediate u High intermediate u Advance u Expert Market Mix: Percentage from each category

12. Decision Support System t Calculates trail capacity u Matches skill levels to trail via slope grades u Takes into account skier density per acre by skill level t Calculates market mix of skier skill levels u Provides expected numbers from a given market mix distribution

13. t Balances trail system to market mix u Changes input parameters: v Trail attributes v Density levels v Market mix distribution t Examines uphill capacity Decision Support System

14. Terrain Capacity Analysis Slope Inventory

15. Market Display: Design for 3837 Skiers Market percent estimated by the planner Computed by the DSS

16. Skill Balance

17. What is a DSS? Sprague / Carlson: “Computer-based system that helps the decision maker confront ill-structured problems through direct interaction with data and analysis models. ”

18. DSS Philosophy t Aid decision maker u not replace ( ES ) t Decision maker remains in control t Not always best decision t Change / flexibility t Quick response

19. DSS Characteristics t Large amounts of data t Different data sources t Tailored to decision maker: u judgment u knowledge u intuition u style u personal traits

20. DSS Characteristics t Graphically oriented t Optimize / heuristics t “What if”( sensitivity ) analysis t Goal-seeking analysis t Unstructured problems

21. Major Components of a DSS Decision Maker Models Financial Financial Statistical analysis Statistical analysis Graphical Graphical Project mgmt Project mgmt DSSSoftwareDSSSoftware Graphical Interface Model Base Data Base

22. Model Base t Financial t Statistical Analysis t Graphical t Project Management t Management Science u Operations research

23. Financial Models t Cash Flow u e.g., discounted payback t Internal ROI t Portfolio Analysis u stock market u advertising t Spreadsheets

24. Statistical Analysis t Descriptive ( summary ) t Trend projection t Hypothesis testing t Regression analysis

25. Management Science t Inventory t Queuing ( Line ) t Network t Search

26. DSS Examples t American Airlines u Price / rate selection t Frito-Lay u Advertising / promotion selection t Juniper Lumber u Production scheduling

27. DSS Examples t Kmart u Price evaluation t Southern Railway u Train dispatching and forecasting t Texas Oil & Gas u Potential drilling sites

28. Issue Does your firm use DSS? u How? u How could your firm use a DSS? u What problems do you see with DSS?

29. Group Decision Support System ( GDSS ) interactive computer-based system facilitating solution of unstructured problems by a set of decision makers working together as a group. interactive computer-based system facilitating solution of unstructured problems by a set of decision makers working together as a group.

30. GroupwareGroupware DatabaseDatabase GDSS Components GDSS Components Model Base GDSSProcessorGDSSProcessor UserUser DialogueManagerDialogueManager

31. Groupware t Brainstorming tools t Idea organization t Prioritization / voting t Electronic questionnaires u pre-meeting t Group Dictionary t Stakeholder identification

32. GDSS Layout Workstations Facilitator Console & Network Server Projector Projection Screen

33. GDSS Benefits t Efficiency of group meetings t Quality of decisions reached u alternatives examined u participation / contribution v those who would otherwise be silent u decision outcomes t Leverage (way meetings run) u e.g., human parallel processing

34. Factors Affecting GDSS Outcomes t Anonymity u provides sense of equality u encourages participation by all u reduces: v problems with “ group think ” v dominance by strong personalities u heightens conflict / impoliteness

35. GDSS Factors t Facility Design u lighting and layout t Multiple public screens t Knowledge bases / databases t Network speed

36. GDSS Factors t Fixed versus customized tools t Software design u ease of use t Group size / composition u individual satisfaction increases with group size t Satisfaction u participants not blocked out of group

37. Groupware Matrix same time Face-to-Face Meetings (electronic copyboards) Face-to-Face Meetings (electronic copyboards) Teams in Place (team room tools) Teams in Place (team room tools) Cross-Distance Meetings (audio/video conferencing) Cross-Distance Meetings (audio/video conferencing) same place different places OngoingCoordination (voice mail, e-mail) OngoingCoordination different times

38. Issue GDSS is based on the assumption that anonymity is desired. How important is anonymity in groups? GDSS is based on the assumption that anonymity is desired. How important is anonymity in groups? u at work? u in class? u in distance-learning? WHAT DO YOU THINK?

39. Points to Remember t What is a DSS? t DSS Components t DSS Examples t Group DSS