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Nova Scotia Population - Trends and Implications Lars Osberg Economics Department Dalhousie University June 5, 2007
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Why are we worried?
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So traditional working age population likely to decline
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What’s the context ? Birth rates in Canada and the OECD
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Forecasting Future Populations ? Much less reliable for small areas, long time scales Population = Births - Deaths + Net Inflow Nationally, migration is policy variable At local level, gross migration flows are much larger than net flows or changes in natural increase Statistics Canada Life Paths model Projects implications of continuation of recent trends – but labour market response is not modeled Shortages => higher wages => changes in migration Halifax In Halifax Out Halifax Net Rest NS In Rest NS Out Rest NS Net 01/01/2000157151391817971185714274-2417 01/01/2001163351410422311240914345-1936 01/01/2002156771378418931295913606-647 01/01/200314448136967521259112673-82 01/01/200414932145853471231814240-1922
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Population growth rates = births + net immigrants - deaths
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Participation trumps Demography!
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Will there be a “Labour shortage”? Labour Force = participation*population
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V2461272 Canada; Employment rate Both sexes; 55 + V2463162 Nova Scotia; Employment rate Both sexes; 55 +
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V2342629 Canada; Median age; Total, all retirees; Both sexes V2342630 Canada; Average age; Total, all retirees; Both sexes
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Older Workers – increasingly important !
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How long can people work? How long do they want to work? Males 65+ labour force participation rate 1921 - 58.4% 1931 - 55.7% 2004 - 11.8% Many reasons to expect future increase jobs are now much less physical workers better educated, career oriented Many need the money 38.4% of retirees need GIS “Working Longer” Social Policy Objective in many countries - only a “good thing” if voluntary
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Labour force = Participation Rate * Source Population “Labour Shortage” = Demand > Supply Wages increase, firms start training, etc. = “Too many jobs” In exactly what sense is this a problem for Atlantic Canada? Forecasts of “shortage” depend on: Demand projections Population & Participation assumptions + Interaction of Supply & Demand in a market economy, firms will raise wages & invest to increase labour productivity Productivity trend dominates GDP growth
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Is rural viability really the key problem for Nova Scotia? Population decline severe in rural areas Availability of services depends on population base Key issue is Minimum Efficient Scale for schools, hospitals & health services Technical change in telecommunications very rapid – changes space/service relation How is a ‘problem’ defined ? determines which solutions are imagined
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Useful Web Links OECD - Ageing and Employment Policies http://www.oecd.org/department/0,2688,en_2649_34747_1_1_1_1_1,00.html Policy Research Initiative Population Aging and Life-Course Flexibility http://policyresearch.gc.ca/ http://policyresearch.gc.ca/ http://policyresearch.gc.ca/page.asp?pagenm=rp_lc_index http://myweb.dal.ca/osberg/
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