1. Species, Area, & the Equilibrium Theory of Island Biogeography as a foundation paradigm in conservation biology

2. Conservation planning & design Fragmentation effects Species loss equation—predicting extinction Island models in gene flow, metapopulations, landscape ecology

3. Samples, within contiguous areaSamples, within contiguous area Isolates, islands, z highIsolates, islands, z high

4. Samples, within contiguous area, z lowSamples, within contiguous area, z low Isolates, islandsIsolates, islands

8. The Plot Thickens! Richness as a f(area, distance)

9. % Saturation as a f (distance)

11. Species-area relations S = cA zS = cA z z is much less than 1z is much less than 1 log S = log c + z log Alog S = log c + z log A Variation in c: places and taxaVariation in c: places and taxa Variation in z: area and isolationVariation in z: area and isolation z =.10-.15 for samples z =.18-.35 for islands IF z =.3, 50/10 Rule

12. Island Observations Islands have fewer species than samples within contiguous continental areas as a function of size Islands have ever fewer species as they get smaller (z is higher) Isolated islands have fewer species than less isolated islands of the same size

13. Threat 1: Habitat Loss & Fragmentation Area decreases (Grain decreases)Area decreases (Grain decreases) Isolation increases (Distance increases)Isolation increases (Distance increases) Fewer species expectedFewer species expected InsularizationInsularization

15. Occam’s principle of parsimony with a warning from Einstein One should not increase beyond what is necessary the number of entities required to explain anything William of Ockham Everything should be made as simple as possible but not simpler Albert Einstein

16. IBT

17. The Theory! Immigration, extinctionImmigration, extinction –Straight to concave TurnoverTurnover Near, FarNear, Far Large, SmallLarge, Small

18. Immigration Rate Rate of Immigration Number of Species 0 Many Low High

19. Extinction Rate Rate of Extinction Number of Species 0 Many Low High

20. Equilibrium Rate of Immigration Rate of Extinction Number of Species 0 Many Low High Equilibrium

21. Isolation Rate of Immigration Rate of Extinction Number of Species Far from Mainland

22. Area Rate of Immigration Rate of Extinction Number of Species Large Island

23. Equilibrium Rate of Immigration Rate of Extinction Number of Species Small, Far Island

24. Equilibrium Rate of Immigration Rate of Extinction Number of Species Small, Close Island

25. Equilibrium Rate of Immigration Rate of Extinction Number of Species Large, Close Island

26. Equilibrium Rate of Immigration Rate of Extinction Number of Species Large, Far Island

27. IBT

28. Extensions of Theory! Target effectTarget effect Rescue effectRescue effect IE DistanceMWRescue AreaTargetMW

29. Extensions of Theory! Target effectTarget effect Rescue effectRescue effect Landscape ecology: matrix, patch quality, corridorLandscape ecology: matrix, patch quality, corridor

31. Simberloff: Experimental Test

33. Another kind of evidence… Species relaxationSpecies relaxation Faunal collapseFaunal collapse InsularizationInsularization

34. Conservation Lessons of Landbridge Islands The Sundra Shelf after 10,000 yrs IslandAreaInitialPresent % 1000km2SSE 1000km2SSE Borneo75115312320 Sumatra42513911716 Java1261137435 Bali5661971

35. Land bridge islands Barro Colorado Island, Panama 1. Hilltop = 15.7 km2 of lowland tropical forest. 2. Isolated in 1914 when Lake Gatun was formed by construction of the Panama Canal. 3. Knowing area and period of isolation, can model extinction. 4. 108 species of breeding birds in 1938. 5. Terborgh used land bridge model to predict 17 would be lost in 50 years; really 13 = 12% of 108.

36. So why does insularization lead to species loss?

37. The 3 Step Process of Species Loss and Extinction Debt

38. InstantaneousFastSlow SamplingIsolationArea

39. Instantaneous FastFaster & Greater Loss as Area Slow

40. The 3 Step Process of Species Loss and Extinction Debt Instantaneous FastFaster & Greater Loss as Area Slow

41. The 3 Step Process of Species Loss and Extinction Debt Instantaneous FastFaster & Greater Loss as Area Slow Extinction debt Steeper z

42. Pattern and process (A.S. Watt 1947) O Chestnut Tree, Great- rooted blossomer Are you the leaf, the blossom, or the bole? O body swayed to music, O brightening glance How can we tell the dancer from the dance? --WB Yeats

43. The Species Loss Equation S NOW = cA NOW z S ORIG = cA ORIG z

44. The Species Loss Equation S NOW / S ORIG = (A NOW / A ORIG ) z

45. The Species Loss Equation S NOW / S ORIG = (A NOW / A ORIG ) z Critique?