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State of the Workforce 2009 Uncertainty in a Changing Economy
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New Haven Labor Market Area & Workforce Investment Area Maps
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Source: TIME Magazine
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Unemployment Rate - CT vs. US Source: CT Department of Labor - DataCore Partners LLC Cumulative Job Loss: U.S. = 7.2 Million CT = 86,800
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U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted December 2007 to October 2009 Source: BLS 10.2%
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# OFFICIALLY UNEMPLOYED15,700,000 # WORKING PART-TIME WANTING FT9,284,000 # DISCOURAGED WORKERS:808,000 TOTAL25,792,000 LABOR FORCE153,975,000 OVERALL UNEMPLOYMENT %16.8% Source: DataCore Partners LLC U.S. Unofficial Unemployment – Sept. 2009
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Job-Seekers per Every 10 Job Openings Source: Economic Policy Institute & New York Times
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$13 an Hour? 500 Sign Up, 1 Wins a Job BURNS HARBOR, Ind. — As soon as the job opening was posted on the afternoon of Friday, July 10, the deluge began. Job-Seekers Reality By MICHAEL LUOMICHAEL LUO Published: October 21, 2009 Source: New York Times
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Unemployment by Demographic Group Since Start of Recession - % of Labor Force Unemployed Source: DataCore Partners LLC & BLS
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Older Workers Working More… Source: BLS & Employee Benefit Research Institute % of people over age 55 who are part of the workforce
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…and Unemployed Longer There are more Americans 65 and older in the workforce than any time in history - 6.6 million compared to 4.1 million in 2001 The unemployment rate is lower for this group, 6.7% vs. 9.8% but they are out of work 40% longer The average Social Security recipient age 65 receives just $12, 437 in annual benefits The percentage of workers ages 25 to 54 with jobs has fallen to 75% from 80% two years ago
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Share of Industries Undergoing Cyclical vs. Structural Change Source: DataCore Partners LLC
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Duration of Job Market Decline & Recovery ? Source: DataCore Partners LLC RecessionJob Market DeclineJob Market Recovery …and counting In months
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CT Celebrating 20 Years….. …of zero private-sector job growth 1989 was the high-water mark for private sector employment in CT with an average 1.458 million jobs In 2000, almost topped 1989 peak with 1.451 million jobs As of September 2009, CT had 1.382 million private sector jobs No other state - not even Michigan - has fewer private sector jobs in 2009 than it did in 1989 Source: Connecticut Post
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Total Non-Farm Employment – U.S. vs. CT January 1989 to September 2009 Aug-09
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South Central WIA: Worksites & Jobs by Size of Firm - 2004 vs 4Q2008 Number of Employees 2004 work sites 2004 % share 2004 jobs 2004 % share 4Q2008 work sites 4Q2008 % share 4Q2008 jobs 4Q2008 % share 0 - 4 10,79955.418,6436.411,69557.619,5706.8 5 – 9 3,59518.423,8148.13,55517.523,5558.2 10 – 19 2,41812.432,41611.12,34011.531,49810.9 20 – 49 1,6838.650,53417.31,7058.451,54817.9 50 – 99 5793.040,40413.85542.737,88513.1 100 – 249 3421.852,87318.13731.856,98219.7 250 - 499 480.215,9725.5410.213,8734.8 500 – 999 230.114,2124.9150.19,1003.2 1000 + 160.143,71814.9140.144,53915.4 Total 19,503100.0292,586100.020,292100.0288,550100.0 SOURCE: CT. DEPT OF LABOR
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250 to 1000+ Employees < 1%24% Jobs 20 to 249 Employees 13% Sites51% Jobs 0 to 19 Employees 87% Sites26% Jobs Source: DataCore Partners LLC South Central WIA: Worksites & Jobs by Size of Firm - 2004 vs 4Q2008
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Workforce Area Unemployment - Sept 2009 Source: CT Department of Labor % Unemployed by Municipality
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Workforce Area Unemployment - Sept 2009 # Unemployed by Municipality Workforce Area Total 31,646 New Haven, Meriden & West Haven = 12,494 / 39.5% Source: CT Department of Labor
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State of Connecticut Absolute Job Change - Sept ‘08 - Sept ‘09 Source: DataCore Partners LLC CT Total YR/YR Job Change - 76,300
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New Haven Labor Market Area Absolute Job Change - Sept ‘08 - Sept ‘09 New Haven LMA Total YR/YR Job Change Minus 5,300 Source: DataCore Partners LLC
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New Haven Labor Market Area Aggregate Dollar Shifts ($Millions) - Sep ‘08 - Sep ‘09 New Haven LMA Total YR/YR Change -$260.5 Million Source: DataCore Partners LLC
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U.S Mortgage Loans Past Due by Type Source: Mortgage Bankers Association & DataCore Partners LLC
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CT Loans 90 Days Past Due or in Foreclosure 200720082009 Source: Hartford Courant & Mortgage Bankers Association 3 rd Qtr ’09 = Largest Quarterly Increase in 30 years
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Employer Provided Medical Benefits
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Employer Provided Medical Benefits - U.S. Source: Economic Policy Institute CT = 77.1% to 71.1%
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Educational Attainment July 29, 2008 OP-ED COLUMNIST The Biggest Issue By DAVID BROOKS “America’s lead over its economic rivals has been entirely forfeited, with many nations surging ahead in school attainment. [This] skills slowdown is the biggest issue facing the country… [and] more than any other, will shape the destiny of the nation.”
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Educational Attainment In 1950 – no European country enrolled 30% of its older teens in full-time secondary school – in the U.S, 70% of our older teens were in school Today the U.S. graduation rates rank 12 th among the 30 member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) In the OECD international student assessment rankings that compare learning and problem solving ability of 15 year olds the U.S. ranks 24 th in science and 25 th in math On average, U.S. African American and Latino students, representing much of our future workforce, are two to three years of learning behind white students of the same age Source: David Brooks, New York Times OP-ED and McKinsey & Company
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Just 12% of the nation’s 20,000 high schools account for half of the country’s dropouts and almost three-quarters of its minority dropouts
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Remedial Tales
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Students entering Gateway Community College in the 2006 and 2008 fall semesters: 38% needed developmental writing 44% needed developmental writing 54% needed developmental reading 58% needed developmental reading 84% needed developmental math 94% needed developmental math Passing rates for students taking fall semester developmental courses: Writing 52% - Reading 62% - Math 59% Gateway’s results exceed national averages Source: Gateway Community College
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Employment/Population Ratios 16-19 Year Olds - Selected Years 1989 to 2009* Source: Center for Labor Market Studies * through Sept 2009
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Drive Achievement Through School Reform Reduce Dropout Rates - enforce the legal age of 18 for leaving school Improve Access to Higher Education - provide full tuition scholarships to public colleges for eligible Connecticut high school graduates
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Percent Growth Rate in Current Dollar Prices Source: Measuring Up 2008 1982 - 2006
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Educational Attainment October 6, 2007 Op-Ed Columnist Send in the Clowns By BOB HERBERT “One of the paramount challenges of the new era is the task of getting a legitimate four-year college degree into the hands of as many American young people as possible. A four- year degree has become a virtual prerequisite for a middle-class quality of life. The overall benefits to the country of such an explosive improvement in educational achievement are incalculable.”
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