2. Commodity Prices: Running out of Everything OIL: OPEC 1973 – 74 OIL: OPEC 1973 – 74 Gold: 1973 – 1980 Gold: 1973 – 1980 Copper, zinc, nickel, etc: 1973 – 74 Copper, zinc, nickel, etc: 1973 – 74 Anchovies: 1974 Anchovies: 1974

3. Anchovies? El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO. El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO. Cold water off Peru => plenty anchovies. Cold water off Peru => plenty anchovies. Warm water off Peru => dearth of anchovies. Warm water off Peru => dearth of anchovies. Cold water off Peru => warm water off Indonesia & vice-versa. Cold water off Peru => warm water off Indonesia & vice-versa. So what? So what?

4. Cowboys Don’t Eat Anchovies But cattle do, mixed in with their feed. But cattle do, mixed in with their feed. Anchovies => intense protein input. Great for red beef. Anchovies => intense protein input. Great for red beef. Anchovies scarce & expensive => substitutes (soybeans) used. Anchovies scarce & expensive => substitutes (soybeans) used. Now (1974) soybeans scarce & expensive. Now (1974) soybeans scarce & expensive.

5. Asians Like Our Soybeans US supply rises. US supply rises. Carter imposes embargo. Carter imposes embargo. Asians switch demand to less expensive palm oil. Asians switch demand to less expensive palm oil. US loses another export market. US loses another export market. Well, not totally & not for good. Well, not totally & not for good.

6. ENSO Naturally occurring phenomenon. Irregular but never ending cycle. Naturally occurring phenomenon. Irregular but never ending cycle. Related to monsoon, typhoons, tropical storms, fish stocks, Peru’s GDP, other GDPs, price of meats & soybeans, etc. Related to monsoon, typhoons, tropical storms, fish stocks, Peru’s GDP, other GDPs, price of meats & soybeans, etc.

7. Hurricanes Port of New Orleans (PONO) at the mouth of the Mississippi. Port of New Orleans (PONO) at the mouth of the Mississippi. Largest port in USA, 4 th largest in the world. Largest port in USA, 4 th largest in the world. US Midwest agriculture exports flow out through PONO. US Midwest agriculture exports flow out through PONO. PONO not seriously damaged this time, but there will be next times. PONO not seriously damaged this time, but there will be next times.

8. Katrina & Rita Is there something like ENSO in the Caribbean & Gulf? Is there something like ENSO in the Caribbean & Gulf? No, but there is plenty of warm water. No, but there is plenty of warm water. Is all this related to global warming? Is all this related to global warming?