1. FAA Air Traffic Organization NAS Operational Analyses and Challenges to Modeling the Future

2. FAA Air Traffic Organization Operations Planning Operational Evolution Plan Office Systems Engineering Office William J. Hughes Technical Center Vice President Vicki Cox - Acting Strategy Office Aviation Research & Development Office NAS Weather Office Forecasts & Operations Analysis Business Outlook Strategy Development & Analysis Performance Analysis Office International Office Technology Development Office

3. FAA Air Traffic Organization ATO Strategy and NAS Performance ATO-P Forecast Tool ACES/NASPAC/etc ATO NAS Performance Tools NAS Strategy Simulator ATO-P Strategic Analysis Capability

4. FAA Air Traffic Organization Why have Trajectory Based Forecast? Keeps lots of O.R. analysts in business! Drives focus on flows and en route constraints Helps revenue estimates

5. FAA Air Traffic Organization Annual NAS Traffic Change – Traffic increased 5.9% from CY00 to CY05.

6. FAA Air Traffic Organization Center Level Changes

7. FAA Air Traffic Organization User Class Changes User Class % Change CY00-CY05 9.73% 1.79% 3.40% 9.06% -8.91% -12% -7% -2% 3% 8% 13% GA JETGA PistonGA TurboTotal GACommercial %Change

8. FAA Air Traffic Organization Regional Carrier Changes Regional vs. Other Commercial Traffic % Change CY00-CY05 46.91% -1.93% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% Regional CarriersOther Commercial % Change

9. FAA Air Traffic Organization Commercial Mainline vs. LCC

10. FAA Air Traffic Organization Independence Air at ZDC

11. FAA Air Traffic Organization Flight Level Workload Changes Low: = 280 and 390 Traffic By Altitude (CY00-CY05) -1% 15% 110% 20% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% LOW_ATLHIGH_ALTSUPER_HIGHTOTAL HIGH % Change

12. FAA Air Traffic Organization -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 % Change CY’00-CY’05 Low Altitude Workload Changes (By Center)

13. FAA Air Traffic Organization -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 % Change CY’00-CY’05 High Altitude Workload Changes (By Center)

14. FAA Air Traffic Organization Why have Seasonal Forecasting? Demand – Seasonal schedules – Peak vs. Low traffic months – Seasonal impacts on workload Operational Constraints – Seasonal constraints – NAS delay procedures

15. FAA Air Traffic Organization Seasonal Schedules Spring Break Spring Break Summer Winter Data: MIA (ASPM)

16. FAA Air Traffic Organization Peak vs. Low Traffic Volume

17. FAA Air Traffic Organization Seasonal Impacts on Workload ZMA vs. ZMP Operations 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 Operations

18. FAA Air Traffic Organization Importance of Seasonal Forecasting Operational Constraints – Seasonal constraints – NAS delay procedures Demand – Seasonal schedules – Peak vs. Low traffic months – Seasonal impacts on workload

19. FAA Air Traffic Organization Seasonal Change in Constraints 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan-00 May-01 Oct-02 Feb-04 Jul-05 Late Flights (%) % Late Flights OEP35

20. FAA Air Traffic Organization Seasonal Constraints IMC Operations and Conditions By Season 26% 15% 27% 16% 17% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% WINTERSPRINGSUMMERFALL %IMC FLIGHTS %IMC PERIODS

21. FAA Air Traffic Organization Seasonal Constraints Convective Weather Index 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 WINTERSPRINGSUMMERFALL CWI

22. FAA Air Traffic Organization Modeling Challenges Where delay is taken vs. cause of delay - En route congestion Convective weather case Annualizing results Interconnectivity of delay Uncertainty in demand

23. FAA Air Traffic Organization Where Delay is Taken

24. FAA Air Traffic Organization - How much is driven by en route/convective congestion? Gate vs. Total Delay 14 16 18 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 Delay (Minutes) Avg. Gate Dep. Delay Avg. Gate Arrival Delay

25. FAA Air Traffic Organization MIA Arrivals vs. Gate Delay

26. FAA Air Traffic Organization Interconnectivity of Delay MIA Gate Arrival Delay vs. OEP 35 Gate Arrival Delay -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Jan-00Apr-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Jan-01Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05Apr-05 Jul-05 Delay (Min.) MIA Gate Arr Delay OEP35 Gate Arrival Delay

27. FAA Air Traffic Organization Interconnectivity of Delay

28. FAA Air Traffic Organization Forecast Uncertainties

29. FAA Air Traffic Organization Current FAA forecasts provide annual activity levels Current FAA forecasts assume aviation business models stay the same Actual demand varies seasonally, daily, and hourly Aviation industry is fundamentally changing Understanding these changes is essential to preparing for the future Summary

30. FAA Air Traffic Organization Current Demand Forecasting

31. FAA Air Traffic Organization Mainline Legacy Carriers Main Line % Change CY00-CY05 84% 56% 29% 8% 0% -6% -12% -19% -26% -33% -40% -20% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% ALOHA HAWAIIAN SPIRIT ALASKA MIDWEST AMERICAN NORTHWEST CONTINENTAL DELTA United U.S. Airways Total Mainline % Change

32. FAA Air Traffic Organization Low Cost Carriers – Independence Air began flying in 2004.

33. FAA Air Traffic Organization

34. FAA Air Traffic Organization 6/20/2005 December 2005

35. FAA Air Traffic Organization 6/20/2005 February 2005

36. FAA Air Traffic Organization FY 2006 Category A&B Operational Errors ( Counts & Rates) * FY 2006 Rates may contain estimated activity counts. The Rate is cumulative from month to month

37. FAA Air Traffic Organization 6/20/2005 February 2005

38. FAA Air Traffic Organization 6/20/2005 February 2005

39. FAA Air Traffic Organization FY 2006 Category A&B Runway Incursions ( Counts & Rates) * FY 2006 Rates may contain estimated operation counts. The Rate is cumulative from month to month

40. FAA Air Traffic Organization 6/20/2005 February 2005

41. FAA Air Traffic Organization OE: FY06 Critical Acquisitions on Schedule and Budget FY06 85% Acquisition Target –Cost Target: Ensure 85% of major baseline Capital Investment programs are within 10% of budget. –Schedule Target: Ensure 85% of major Capital Investment programs meet established activity milestone schedule dates –Status Current FY06 Cost targets are within their 10% budget thresholds. 100 % of the 85% Schedule milestones are on schedule. –Nine (9) of the 39 Final milestones (23%) have been completed on or ahead of schedule through the December reporting period. –Eight Interim milestones (57%) have also been completed through December 39 milestones are being tracked against 31 programs for the FY06 85% Acquisition Goal Fourteen (14) interim milestones are also tracked and not included as part of the 85% Acquisition Performance Goal Metric A total of 53 milestones will be statused each month (the 39 + the 14)

42. FAA Air Traffic Organization OE: Critical Acquisitions on Schedule and Budget –Four Final milestones are due in January.