1. Darren Ruddell Arizona State University American Meteorological Society Urban Implications of Climate Change and Population Growth 15 January 2009 Scales of Perception: Public Awareness of Regional and Neighborhood Climate Change

2. Research Themes GeneralGeneral -Changing urban climates and heat-related hazards Case StudiesCase Studies -Exposure to extreme heat -Perceptions of climate change

3. Presentation Outline Extreme Heat and HealthExtreme Heat and Health Temperature TrendsTemperature Trends Constructing Environmental PerceptionConstructing Environmental Perception Mixed Method AnalysisMixed Method Analysis Conclusions about Climate ChangeConclusions about Climate Change

4. Extreme Heat and Health

5. Global and Local Temperature Composition 2 m Air Temperature Simulations Grossman-Clarke Global Trends Local Trends Temperature Change 1970-2004 IPCC 2007

6. Constructing Environmental Perception Aitken et al. 1989; Garcia-Mira et al. 2005; Uzzell 2000 Experience Social Frames of Reference

7. Temperature (C) Simulated Air Temperature 1km spatial resolution, July 17 2005 Heterogeneous Phoenix Heat Island

8. Research Questions Is the correspondence between social perceptions and environmental conditions weaker or stronger at finer spatial resolutions in the current study?Is the correspondence between social perceptions and environmental conditions weaker or stronger at finer spatial resolutions in the current study? What is the relative importance of localized temperature experience and broader social frames of reference in predicting residents’ perceptions of temperature in the urbanized area?What is the relative importance of localized temperature experience and broader social frames of reference in predicting residents’ perceptions of temperature in the urbanized area?

9. Data Sources and Methodology TemperatureTemperature –Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) climate model Social PerceptionsSocial Perceptions –Phoenix Area Social Survey (PASS) 2006 –N = 808 DemographicsDemographics –Census Block Group (2000)

10. Weak Association between Perceptions and Physical Conditions at Regional Scale Spearman’s rho: 0.262; Sig: 0.102 Average Perceived Temp in Valley Over Time Aggregated by N’hood Source: PASS 2006; WRF Simulation Scale: 1) Not hotter; 2) A little hotter; 3) A lot hotter

11. Strong Association between Perceptions and Physical Conditions at Local Scale Spearman’s rho: 0.606; Sig: 0.001 Source: PASS 2006; WRF Simulation Scale: 1) A lot cooler... 5) A lot hotter Average Perceived Temp in N’hood Compared to Other Valley N’hoods

12. Independent Variables BWaldSig Age0.0954.9360.026 Ethnicity (minority) 0.6504.6050.032 Gender (female) 0.79010.2970.001 Politically Moderate -0.3070.8830.347 Politically Conservative -0.6944.9170.027 Income (log) -0.7342.4760.116 Time Away summer 2005 0.0560.0590.808 Illness (yes) 0.6646.0060.014 Residency0.0143.2060.073 Mean Low N’hood Temp -0.0050.0020.963 Results: Multinomial Logistic Regression Reference Category: Not hotter; Output: A lot hotter Social Variables Explain Perceived Temperature at Metropolitan Scale Perceived Temp in Region Over Time

13. Independent Variables EstWaldSig Age0.0281.0070.316 Ethnicity (minority) -0.2781.9700.160 Gender (female) 0.0890.3170.573 Politically Moderate 0.2121.1220.289 Politically Conservative 0.0280.0220.883 Income (log) -0.3711.5580.212 Time Away summer 2005 0.3936.8170.009 Illness (yes) 0.0920.2810.596 Residency-0.0072.1270.145 Mean Low N’hood Temp 0.45741.9120.000 Results: Ordinal Regression Exposure Overwhelms Social Variables at Local Scale Perceived N’hood Temp Relative to Others

14. Conclusion of Study Significant differences in perceived and simulated temperatures among study sitesSignificant differences in perceived and simulated temperatures among study sites Public perceptions of temperature vary by spatial scalePublic perceptions of temperature vary by spatial scale People can perceive climate change when they experience it in their daily livesPeople can perceive climate change when they experience it in their daily lives Perceptions become increasingly distorted as spatial scales broadensPerceptions become increasingly distorted as spatial scales broadens

15. Future Research Heat Warning SystemsHeat Warning Systems Human Health and Extreme HeatHuman Health and Extreme Heat Water Resource ManagementWater Resource Management Policy InitiativesPolicy Initiatives

16. Collaborators Sharon Harlan, Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Gerardo ChowellSharon Harlan, Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Gerardo Chowell NSF Grants:NSF Grants: SES 0216281, DEB 0423704, & DGE 9987612

17. Questions?