1. Sub-Saharan Africa Class 2

2. 2. Environmental Factors Good source: Bloom and Sachs, 1998
2. Environmental Factors Good source: Bloom and Sachs, Geography, demography and economic growth in Africa, Brookings Papers

3. 1. Tropical environment and agricultural productivity
Unfavorable soil-water balance (precip. - potential evapotranspiration) creates problems of aridity and drought
lack of variation in day-length and lack of dry season create induction of flowering problem for many temperate-zone species in humid tropics

4. Basic biological factors limit agricultural yields of other species
concept of net photosynthesis (energy net of the energy plant uses to stay alive)
where temperatures remain very high at night losses of net photosynthetic potential are especially high

5. Problem of tropical soils
High precipitation leaches nutrients
makes permanent agriculture difficult
veterinary disease vectors
lack of cold weather barriers to vector reproduction and survival
unusually vigorous plant pests--e.g. locusts
crop damage due to massive rodent populations

6. 2. Tropical environment and infectious and parasitic disease
Very high burdens of infectious and parasitic diseases
account for 42.5% of lost Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs)
Compare
India--28.9%
Western Europe--2.8%

7. Traditional problem with signific. Ec. impacts--Malaria
Caused by the protozoan plasmodium transmitted by anopheles mosquito
disease ecology depends on
density of mosquitoes relative to humans
mosquito longevity relative to life cycle of plasmodium
key variable: latency period of plasmodium in mosquito relative to life span of mosquito

8. Economic costs of malaria
Medical care costs for the individual--medicines, treatment fees, transportation, bednets, insecticides etc.
public health expenditures
loss of productivity due to illness and care of the sick
impacts on long-term cognitive performance
constraints on technical diffusion, foreign investment and population exchange (including tourism) in endemic malarial regions

9. Strategy to avoid malaria?
Settlement and development in tropical highland areas
Problem--generally distant from coastline
result is high transportation costs
poor transport systems

10. Contemporary problem---HIV/AIDS (now the leading cause of adult deaths (15-49 years) in several Sub-Saharan African countries and major cities)

11. Spread of HIV over time in sub-Saharan Africa, 1982–1997
1987
Estimated percentage of adults
(15–49) infected with HIV
16.0% – 32.0%
8.0% – 16.0%
2.0% – 8.0%
0.5% – 2.0%
0.0% – 0.5%
trend data unavailable
outside region
1992
1997
98036-E-12 – 15 July 1998

12. A global view of HIV infection 30 million adults living with HIV/AIDS as of end 1997
Estimated percentage
of adults (15–49)
infected with HIV
8.00% – 32.00%
2.00% – 8.00%
0.50% – 2.00%
0.13% – 0.50%
0.03% – 0.13%
0% – 0.03%
not available
98036-E-11 – 15 July 1998

13. Adults and children estimated to be living with HIV/AIDS as of end 1997
Eastern Europe &
Central Asia
Western Europe
North America
East Asia & Pacific
North Africa
& Middle East
Caribbean
South
& South-East Asia
5.8 million
sub-Saharan Africa
21 million
Latin America
1.3 million
Australia
& New Zealand
12 000
Total: 30.6 million
98036-E-1 – 15 July 1998

14. Estimated adult and child deaths due to HIV/AIDS from the beginning of the epidemic to end 1997
Eastern Europe &
Central Asia
5 400
Western Europe
North America
East Asia & Pacific
11 000
North Africa
& Middle East
42 000
Caribbean
South
& South-East Asia
sub-Saharan Africa
9.6 million
Latin America
Australia
& New Zealand
7 000
Total: 11.7 million
98036-E-3 – 15 July 1998

15. Estimated adult and child deaths from HIV/AIDS during 1997
Eastern Europe &
Central Asia
< 1 000
Western Europe
15 000
North America
29 000
East Asia & Pacific
5 000
North Africa
& Middle East
13 000
Caribbean
18 000
South
& South-East Asia
sub-Saharan Africa
1.8 million
Latin America
81 000
Australia
& New Zealand
700
Total: 2.3 million
98036-E-5 – 15 July 1998

16. Estimated number of adults and children newly infected with HIV during 1997
Eastern Europe &
Central Asia
Western Europe
30 000
North America
44 000
East Asia & Pacific
North Africa
& Middle East
19 000
Caribbean
45 000
South
& South-East Asia
1.2 million
sub-Saharan Africa
4.0 million
Latin America
Australia
& New Zealand
600
Total: 5.8 million
98036-E-7 – 15 July 1998

17. Proportional increase in country HIV prevalence rates between 1994 and 1997
Over 100%
(27)
10% to 100%
(47)
0.01% to 10%
(18)
No growth
(44)
No 1997 data
(36)
98036-E-15 – 15 July 1998

18. HIV prevalence among pregnant women, selected provinces, South Africa, 1990–199730
HIV prevalence (%)
KwaZulu Natal 25 20
Free State
Gauteng 15
Eastern Cape 10 5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
Source: Department of Health, South Africa
98036-E-19 – 15 July 1998

19. Increase in mortality among men 15–60 between 1986 and 1997, based on household reports (sibling histories), selected African countries 80
Probability of dying from all causes (%) 70
1995/96 60
1994
1993 50
1995
1991 40
1989
1990/91 30
1986
1990 20
1988 10
Country and
survey date
Zimbabwe
Tanzania
Malawi
Uganda
Zambia
Source: Timaeus I, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, from Demograhic and Health Survey data
98036-E-27 – 15 July 1998

20. Proportion of adult mortality attributable to HIV, various community studies in Africa, 1990–1996
small town Uganda
(HIV 21%)
rural Uganda
(HIV 8%)
Death rates among HIV-negatives
Excess deaths due to HIV
small town Tanzania
(HIV 7%)
rural Tanzania
(HIV 4%)
Deaths per 1,000
person-years 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Source: Boerma T et al., in The Socio-Demographic Impact of AIDS in Africa, IUSSP, 1997
98036-E-28 – 15 July 1998

21. Estimated impact of AIDS on under-5 child mortality rates – Selected African countries, 2010
with AIDS
per 1000 live births
250
200
150
100 50
without AIDS
Botswana
Kenya
Malawi
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Source: US Bureau of the Census
98036-E-25 – 15 July 1998

22. Projected changes in life expectancy in selected African countries with high HIV prevalence, 1995–2000 65 60 55 50 45 40 35
Average life expectancy at birth, in years
Botswana
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Uganda
Malawi
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Source: United Nations Population Division, 1996
98036-E-23 – 15 July 1998

23. Major categories of economic impacts
1. Reduction in population growth rates
2. Worsening of dependency problem
HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality is concentrated in young adults in most productive years

24. Increased costs (diversion of economic resources)
Direct costs: expends. for medical care, drugs, funerals
Indirect costs
lost time due to illness
recruitment and training costs to replace
reduction in investment if costs are financed out of savings
care of orphans

25. Conceptual Map of the impact of HIV/AIDS on a business firm
source: Rugalema, 1999

26. Economic impacts on agriculture
Key issues
effect of loss of workers at critical periods of planting and harvest
effect of switch to less labor-intensive crops due to depleted labor supply

27. Cumulative number of children estimated to have been orphaned by AIDS
Cumulative number of children estimated to have been orphaned by AIDS* at age 14 or younger
Eastern Europe &
Central Asia
< 100
Western Europe
8 700
North America
70 000
East Asia & Pacific
2 200
North Africa
& Middle East
14 000
Caribbean
46 000
South
& South-East Asia
sub-Saharan Africa
7.8 million
Latin America
91 000
Australia
& New Zealand
< 500
Total: 8.2 million
* HIV-negative children who have lost their mother or both parents to AIDS before the age of 15 years
98036-E-9 – 15 July 1998

28. Alternative perspectives that focus on economic and political factors
3. EXTERNALIST perspective. Emphasizes the colonial legacy and the contemporary international economic environment
place serious constraints on development prospects
4. INTERNALIST perspective. Emphasizes negative consequences of inappropriate economic policies of African governments
internal policy reform can improve economic performance

29. 3. Externalist Perspective
Colonial legacy argument similar to dependency perspective for Latin America
additional emphasis on
traditional constraints on participation of native Africans in the economy during the colonial period
undermining of traditional subsistence systems by such practices as collecting taxes in cash

30. (price index of exports/price index of imports) * 100.
Externalist Perspective (cont.) Contemporary growth constraints for agricultural exporters
declining terms of trade
(price index of exports/price index of imports) * 100.

32. Reasons for Terms of Trade Problems of SSA Countries
competitive international marketplace for tropical exporters
low demand elasticities for primary prods.
Introduction of artificial substitutes
disappearance of major agricultural markets
difficulty of adjusting production and export mix quickly

33. Other contemporary factors emphasized by externalists
neo-protectionism in industrial world
weak interest of TNCs in investing in Sub-saharan Africa

34. Foreign Direct Investment by region, 1995, $ US billions
Sub-Saharan Africa $2.2
Middle East/North Africa $2.1
South Asia $2.0
Latin America $17.8
Eastern Europe/Central Asia $10.6
East Asia/Pacific $53.7