1. Turnout Theory

2. Why do people vote? How can parties, groups, and candidate campaigns encourage people to vote who might not otherwise vote?

3. Recall the Voting calculus P(V) = PB + D – C The probability of voting is equal to the voter’s personal benefit from electing one candidate times the probability the vote itself will determine the outcome, and the emotional benefit of performing one’s civic duty, minus the transaction and opportunity costs of the act of casting a ballot.

4. Benefits of Voting Material (virtually zero with secret ballot) Emotional/expressive (from performing civic duty) Social benefits (guilt/pride related to performance of civic duty)

5. Correlates to likelihood of voting *Education* –Socialization –Information, interest Income Social connectedness –Age –Church attendance –Marriage –Home Ownership

6. Recall the Voting calculus P(V) = PB + D – C The probability of voting is equal to the voter’s personal benefit from electing one candidate times the probability the vote itself will determine the outcome, and the emotional benefit of performing one’s civic duty, minus the transaction and opportunity costs of the act of casting a ballot.

7. Costs and Barriers Costs: Time, effort to vote Time, effort to register Informational costs Barriers to voting: Incarceration (46 states) Felons on parole Residency requirements Registration Understanding the process

8. How many voters do turn out? Rate = voting population eligible adult population Two problems: –Eligible adult population hard to know –Voting population hard to know

9. How many voters do turn out? 2004, from Current Population Survey

10. Percent of eligible voters who vote, presidential elections

11. Why has turnout declined? Greater eligible population Changes in party mobilization Uncompetitive elections Voter registration

12. What could you do to increase turnout? Through public policy For a particular candidate How might you decrease turnout?

13. Effect of Registration laws on turnout

14. In any given election, why might more people turn out? High media coverage Significant office Important issues Attractive candidates Competitive race