1. Bullish! Emile Servan-Schreiber NewsFutures, Inc

2. NewsFutures, Inc Founded in 2000 Auto financed; Profitable Nine employees Two public exchanges (40,000+ markets) Corporate clients in US, Europe and Asia

3. Business Models Prediction Trader Panels Corporate Markets Public Markets Technology Licensing

4. Launch: Fall 2000 36,000 registered traders

5. Launch: Fall 2004 10,000 registered traders

6. Customers in Various Industries PharmaceuticalsAutomobile InsuranceFood AdvertisingPublishing Consumer AppliancesCable Ten Fortune 1000 clients

7. Revenue Streams

8. Popular Corporate Applications Sales forecasting Price forecasting Project / Product prioritization Product / Feature selection Regulatory monitoring Prediction & Decision markets

9. What we are learning along the way

10. It’s not only about accuracy It’s not only about:It’s also (mostly?) about: AccuracyCommunity - Dialogue LiquidityBeing heard - Listening MoneyFocus – Getting on board IncentivesKnowledge – Business Value SoftwareUser-friendly design Trading(Job security)

11. It’s not only about accuracy It’s not only about:It’s also (mostly?) about: AccuracyCommunity - Dialogue LiquidityBeing heard - Listening MoneyFocus – Getting on board incentivesKnowledge – Business Value SoftwareUser-friendly design Trading(Job security) Experimental EconomicsPsychology

12. Markets as Brains In both cases Intelligence emerges from interaction of many relatively dumb parts Learning by reinforcement & pruning improves performance Intelligence Accuracy

13. What can we do together? Commercial / Non-commercial software licenses Scientific collaborations Experiments Public or corporate data analysis New, business-relevant research questions Trader psychological profiles (real money / play money) Incentives (short term – long term) Trader Motivations Trading styles Longitudial studies – market as learning system

14. Contact us!

15. 0-100 Markets

16. Multiple-Outcome Markets with automatic arbitrage (Patent Pending)

17. Pharmaceutical Industry Trends 2003 Markets sponsored by eLilly

18. Operational Details Participants were several hundred people recruited form the general population of NewsFutures.com traders. Markets operated with virtual money, but with a $10,000 cash prize to split among the 10 most successful traders.

19. Will a law be passed allowing drug re-importation? Result = No President Bush says that he wants a bill on his desk by Jul 4 th.

20. Will a new drug benefit be introduced under Medicare? Result = Yes Late night “arm twisting” as the House of Representative votes on the Medicare bill… President Bush says that he wants a bill on his desk by Jul 4 th.

21. By how much will access to physicians increase or decrease (2002 vs 2003)? Result = +7.4% (sales force headcount increase for top-10 pharma companies)

22. How many New Molecular Entities will be approved by the FDA in 2003? Result = 21