1. Simulations of met conditions during a Houston ozone episode and the NYC NYC DHS MSG tracer study with urbanized MM5 (uMM5) R. Bornstein*, R. Balmori E. Weinroth, H. Taha San Jose State University San Jose, CA *pblmodel@hotmail.com pblmodel@hotmail.com Presented at AMS Annual Meeting January 2008

2. Acknowledgements Data Data S. Burian, J. Ching S. Burian, J. Ching TCEQ, USFS TCEQ, USFS D. Byun D. Byun Urbanization scheme of Urbanization scheme of A. Martilli A. Martilli S. Dupont S. Dupont Funding: NSF, USAID, DHS Funding: NSF, USAID, DHS

3. OUTLINE Introduction Introduction Current uMM5 Applications Current uMM5 Applications Houston ozone Houston ozone NYC tracer study NYC tracer study Future: uWRF Future: uWRF Conclusion Conclusion

4. Recent Meso-met Model Urbanization Need to urbanize momentum, thermo, & TKE Need to urbanize momentum, thermo, & TKE surface & SfcBL diagnostic-Eqs. surface & SfcBL diagnostic-Eqs. PBL prognostic-Eqs. PBL prognostic-Eqs. Start: canopy model (Yamada 1982) Start: veg-canopy model (Yamada 1982) Veg-param replaced with GIS/RS urban-param/data Veg-param replaced with GIS/RS urban-param/data Brown and Williams (1998) Brown and Williams (1998) Masson (2000) Masson (2000) Martilli et al. (2001) in TVM/URBMET Martilli et al. (2001) in TVM/URBMET Dupont, Ching, et al. (2003) in EPA/MM5 Dupont, Ching, et al. (2003) in EPA/MM5 Taha et al. (2005), Balmori et al. (2006) in uMM5: Taha et al. (2005), Balmori et al. (2006) in uMM5: detailed input urban-parameters as f(x,y) for two applications

5. uMM5 for Houston (AMS 2007) Goal: Accurate urban/rural temps & winds for Aug 2000 O 3 episode via uMM5 uMM5 Houston LU/LC & urban morphology parameters from S. Burian Houston LU/LC & urban morphology parameters from S. Burian TexAQS2000 field-study data TexAQS2000 field-study data USFS urban-reforestation scenarios  USFS urban-reforestation scenarios  UHI & O 3 changes

6. uMM5 Simulation period: 22-26 August 2000 Model configuration Model configuration 5 domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km 5 domains: 108, 36, 12, 4, 1 km (x, y) grid points: (x, y) grid points: (43x53, 55x55, 100x100, 136x151, 133x141 full-  levels: 29 in D 1-4 & 49 in D-5; lowest ½  level=7 m full-  levels: 29 in D 1-4 & 49 in D-5; lowest ½  level=7 m 2-way feedback in D 1-4 2-way feedback in D 1-4 Parameterizations/physics options Parameterizations/physics options > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling Inputs Inputs > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > LU/LC modifications (from Byun)

7.  GC influences: small  Air-mass movement: First along-shore (to west) from: flow along N-edge of cold-core atm-low  Then: Ship-Channel to Houston by Bay Breeze & UHI-convergence  max O 3  Finally: to NW of Houston by Gulf Breeze meso O 3 transport-patterns: D-5: UTC episode-day obs of meso O 3 transport-patterns: influences of sea breeze & UHI-convergence

8. Urbanized Domain 5: near-sfc 3-PM V, 4-days  Episode day day Cold-L Hot Cool

9. 1 km uMM5 Houston UHI: 8 PM, 21 Aug Upper L: MM5 UHI (2.0 K) Upper L: MM5 UHI (2.0 K) Upper R: uMM5 UHI (3.5 K) Upper R: uMM5 UHI (3.5 K) Lower L: (uMM5-MM5) UHI Lower L: (uMM5-MM5) UHI LU/LCerror

10. Base-case (current) veg-cover (0.1’s)  urban min (red)  rural max (green) Modeled changes of veg-cover (0.01’s) > Urban-reforestation (green) > Rural-deforestation (purple) min max increase

11. Run 12 (urban reforestation) minus Run 10 (base case): 2-m ∆T at 4 PM reforested central urban-area cools & surrounding deforested rural-areas warm

12. D UHI(t) for Base-case minus Runs 15-18 D UHI(t) for Base-case minus Runs 15-18 U1 sea Ru U2 UHI = Average-T in urban-box minus that in rural-box UHI = Average-T in urban-box minus that in rural-box Runs 15-18: different urban re-forestation scenarios Runs 15-18: different urban re-forestation scenarios D UHI=Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI (max effect) D UHI=Run-17 UHI minus Run-13 UHI (max effect) Reduced UHI  lower max-O 3 (not shown)  Reduced UHI  lower max-O 3 (not shown)  EPA emission-reduction credits  $ saved  Max-impact of –0.9 K of a 3.5 K Noon-UHI, of which 1.5 K was from uMM5

13. uMM5 for NYC DHS MSG UDS Goal: Accurate urban/rural temps & winds for for 9-15 March ‘05 tracer releases via uMM5 uMM5 NYC LU/LC & urban morphology NYC LU/LC & urban morphology parameters from S. Burian DHS MSG UDS field-study data DHS MSG UDS field-study data met met tracer tracer

14.  GC influences during tracer periods  Midtown: weak, slow synoptic speed  MSG: strong, fast synoptic speeds  Sea breeze & UHI influences  Midtown: strong, with UHI-convergence  MSG: weak  Urban-barrier influences  Midtown: weak  MSG: strong, with urban barrier divergence  Modeling studies by  Midtown: Pullen, Holt, Thompson at NRL  MSG: This presentation (4 km at GMU07) Obs of UDS Tracer Periods

15. NYC uMM5 DHS UDS MSG: 9-15 March ‘05 Model configuration Model configuration 4 domains: 36, 12, 4, 1 km 4 domains: 36, 12, 4, 1 km (x, y) grid points: (x, y) grid points: (110x85, 91x91, 91x91, 33x33) full-  levels: 29 in D 1-3 & 48 in D-4; lowest ½  level=7 m full-  levels: 29 in D 1-3 & 48 in D-4; lowest ½  level=7 m 2-way feedback in D 1-3 2-way feedback in D 1-3 Parameterizations/physics options Parameterizations/physics options > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Grell cumulus (D 1-2)> ETA or MRF PBL (D 1-4) > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > Gayno-Seaman PBL (D-5) > Simple ice moisture, > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling > urbanization module NOAH LSM > RRTM radiative cooling Inputs Inputs > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > NNRP Reanalysis fields, ADP obs data > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > Burian morphology from LIDAR building-data in D-5 > LU/LC modifications (from Byun)

16. D04 D03 4 MM5 domains: 1-km via uMM5

17. 14 EST, 3/11/05, 4 km MM5: Sfc-T(K) & synoptic wave-cyclone V ( flag = 5 m/s) W W C

18. Concurrent 4 km MM5 Streamlines z = 60 m AGL A B Slowing & divergence Downwind convergence

19. Concurrent 4 km MM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s) at 60 (left) & 700 (right) m AGL slow slow fast fast

20. NWS 700 hPa 3/10/05: 00 & 12 UTC 00 UTC = 19 EST on 3/9/05 12 UTC = 07 EST on 3/10/05

21. MM5 36-km & NWS: Sfc, 3/10/05 07 EST 13 EST

22. 1 km uMM5 Domain Change in synoptics?

23. 1 km uMM5 Domain

24. 1 km uMM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s) & T (K) 09 EST, 3/10/05, 4 levels UHI

25. 1 km uMM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s): 10 EST, 3/10/05, 4 levels SLOW

26. 1 km uMM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s) & Con/Div (1/s) 11 EST, 3/10/05, 4 levels CON

27. 1 km uMM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s) & w (m/s) 11 EST, 3/10/05, 4 levels UP

28. 1 km uMM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s) & T (K) 09 EST, 3/14/05, 4 levels UHI

29. 1 km uMM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s): 10 EST, 3/14/05, 4 levels SLOW

30. 1 km uMM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s) & Con/Div (1/s) 10 EST, 3/14/05, 4 levels CON

31. 1 km uMM5 Speed (flag = 5 m/s) & w (m/s) 11 EST, 3/10/05, 4 levels UP

32. Summary of MSG Weak UHI  small acceleration Weak UHI  small acceleration Strong urban z 0 & barrier effects  Strong urban z 0 & barrier effects  deceleration  convergence  up motion

33. SJSU (MM5 or uMM5) met output fields are available for ozone (design-day cases) and/or 4-D BCs for CFD &/or quick ER-models for SFBA (MM5) SFBA (MM5) Houston (uMM5) Houston (uMM5) NYC (uMM5) NYC (uMM5) LA Basin (MM5) LA Basin (MM5) Israel (RAMS & MM5) Israel (RAMS & MM5)

34. Future: uWRF uWRF with NCAR (F. Chen) Martilli-Dupont urbanization Martilli-Dupont urbanization Burian lidar urban-parameters as f(x,y) Burian lidar urban-parameters as f(x,y) Taha stat-generalization of Burian urban- parameters for areas w/o lidar-obs Taha stat-generalization of Burian urban- parameters for areas w/o lidar-obs Freedman PBL-turbulence scheme into Mellor- Yamada Freedman PBL-turbulence scheme into Mellor- Yamada Zilitinkevich SfcBL stability-functions, z, etc. Zilitinkevich SfcBL stability-functions, z oh, etc. Steyn diagnostic h(x,y) scheme Steyn diagnostic h i (x,y) scheme SST (x,y,t) from J. Pullen SST (x,y,t) from J. Pullen

35. Thanks Questions?