1. Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into National Weather Service Hydro- Meteorological Operations Operational Aspects of the COMET Collaborative Project

2. Participants Stony Brook University: –Brian Colle, Mike Erickson NWS New York City: –Jeff Tongue, Nancy Furbush, Matt Sardi, Nelson Vaz, Adrienne Leptich NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly: –Al Cope NWS Eastern Region Headquarters –Josh Watson NWS MARFC: –Joe Ostrowski

3. Objective Integrate data from the Stony Brook University Mesoscale Ensemble System (MES) 1.Into AWIPS. 2.Into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) application.

4. Why ? Allow forecasters to perform mesoscale stochastic hydrology on small, fast responding basins.

5. How?? Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to assimilate via AWIPS D2D (GFE) and the Web. Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble Data to integrate into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor.

6. Data Web AWIPS GFE

7. Web http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/ NEUS/nwp_graphics.html

8. http://chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/ nwp_graphics.html

9. Precip Plumes

10. AWIPS 00Z 12/36 km 14 Member Ensemble data Available ~11 UTC 36 Hour Forecast Volume Browser: –Members –Means/Standard Deviation –Probability of Exceedence

11. AWIPS

12. AWIPS – QPF Members

13. AWIPS - Mean

14. AWIPS – Temperature Members

15. AWIPS – Wind Members

16. AWIPS - Concerns Installation Instructions are Available. Still needs some “clean-up.” New “build” issues. Stony Brook is not an Operational Center.

17. SSHP Integrating Stony Brook ESP into SSHP 1.Deterministically: From the AWIPS GFE 2.Stochastically: From the Stony Brook EPS

18. Accessing SSHP

19. 1. GFE QPF - Deterministic

20. Convert 6 hour NDFD QPF to RR2 text product for use with SSHP Note that GFE 6-hr Pcpn is evenly distributed

21. In SSHP Basins: –Lodi - Saddle R. –Gardiner – Wallkill R. –HoHoKus – Hohokus Brook –Springfield – Rahway R. –Beacon Falls – Naugatuck R. –Southbury – Pomperaug R. –Yantic – Yantic R.

22. 2. EPS into SSHP (under development) Experimenting with the Lodi Basin. Stony Brook University is producing hourly resolution basin averaged precipitation. –RR2 Product (ftp’ed): Mean Worst Case scenario Individual member data

23. Ensemble mean accumulated 1 hr forecast for hour 32 Ensemble mean for the Lodi Basin

24. Worst case Mean Average GFE QPF SBU Ensemble Members

25. Selecting Basin QPF in SSHP

26. Example Worse Case in SSHP

27. Future Work Automate the FTP of Data Train Staff Modify SSHP with help of OH to display ensemble hydrographs

28. The Future in SSHP