1. Dr. Barry Wellar Professor Emeritus of Geography and Distinguished Geomatics Scientist, Lab for Applied Geomatics and GIS Science University of Ottawa, Program Director, Geography Awareness Week, Canadian Association of Geographers wellarb@uottawa.ca http://www.wellarconsulting.com/ PowerPoint Slides for Keynote Address GIS Day 2009 University of Ottawa November 18, 2009 Slide 1

2. QUESTION: WHY DO WE NEED NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE FOR BETTER DECISIONS? Answer: Because too often Decisions Based on the “Anatomical Sourcing” Approach Fail the Logic Test. Slide 2

3. DECISION PRESSURE POINTS? YES, A FEW COME TO MIND End of oil Pandemics Climate change Rainforest destruction Slide 3

4. DECISION PRESSURE POINTS? AS DO A FEW MORE Toxic waste Urban sprawl Loss of habitat Holes in the ozone layer Slide 4

5. DECISION PRESSURE POINTS? AND A FEW MORE Auto industry Immigration levels Drought there and there Flooding here, here, and here Slide 5

6. DECISION PRESSURE POINTS? AND A FEW MORE Air pollution National security Solid waste disposal Threats to fish stocks Slide 6

7. DECISION PRESSURE POINTS? AND A FEW MORE Urban intensification Regional development Extreme weather events Threats to the boreal forest Slide 7

8. DECISION PRESSURE POINTS? AND A FEW MORE Infrastructure deterioration Interdependent infrastructures National high-speed rail system National spatial data infrastructure Slide 8

9. DECISION PRESSURE POINTS? AND A FEW MORE Loss of prime agricultural land Need for alternative energy supplies Shift to more sustainable urban transport Water quality problems there, there, and there Slide 9

10. PHRASES THAT ILLUSTRATE THE “ANATOMICAL SOURCING” APPROACH TO MAKING DECISIONS Was that comment right off the top of your head? I support this policy from the bottom of my heart! I have a gut feeling about this LRT plan. When asked questions she often gives off-the-cuff opinions. Slide 10

11. MORE PHRASES THAT ILLUSTRATE THE “ANATOMICAL SOURCING” APPROACH TO MAKING DECISIONS Simple rule of thumb notions ignore reality. The mayor is flying by the seat of his pants on this one! That is another knee-jerk reaction based on ideology. Are there people in that department who use their brains before policies are adopted? Slide 11

12. “ANATOMICAL SOURCING” Q&A Question: Can the “Anatomical Sourcing” approach effectively deal with the challenges represented by the decision pressure points? Answer: On the evidence, only when our brains are fully engaged, and the other parts of the anatomy play little to no role. Slide 12

13. AS FOR “OUR” BRAINS, “OUR” INCLUDES Individuals and families Institutions Governments Corporations Advocacy groups Interest groups Professional groups Slide 13

14. NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? This listing of the ways that GIS and GeoSkills contribute evidence pertinent to decision pressure points is illustrative. 1. Cartography 2. Digital imaging 3. Geographic field methods 4. Geographic research methods 5. Geographic research techniques 6. Geomatics 7. Geomodelling 8. Geoscience methodology 9. Geostatistics 10. GIS applications 11. GIS fundamentals 12. GIS principles 13. GIS science 14. GIS technology 15. GPS applications 16. Mapping systems 17. Remote sensing 18. Spatial analysis 19. Spatial decision support systems 20. Spatial synthesis Slide 14

15. WHERE TO FIND EXAMPLES OF NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? Geography Awareness Week Applied Geography Showcase http://www.cag-acg.ca/files/pdf/GAW/Applied_Geography_Showcase.pdf Slide 15

16. WHERE TO FIND EXAMPLES OF NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? Geography Awareness Week Guide to Applied Geography Resources http://www.cag-acg.ca/files/pdf/GAW/ GAW_2009_Guide_Applied_Resources.pdf Slide 16

17. WHERE TO FIND EXAMPLES OF NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? Geography Awareness Week GeoSkills Showcase http://www.cag-acg.ca/files/pdf/GAW/GAW2009_GeoSkills.pdf Slide 17

18. Geography Awareness Week Guide to GeoSkills Resources http://www.cagacg.ca/files/pdf/GAW/ GAW_2009_Guide_GeoSkills_Resources.pdf WHERE TO FIND EXAMPLES OF NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? Slide 18

19. WHERE TO FIND EXAMPLES OF NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? Geography Awareness Week Theme Day Websites Climate and Weather Water Energy Transportation Food and Health http://www.cag-acg.ca/en/geography_week_2009.html Slide 19

20. WHERE TO FIND EXAMPLES OF NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? GIS Day Websites http://www.cag-acg.ca/files/pdf/GAW/GIS_Day.pdf http://www.esricanada.com/english/7301.asp Slide 20

21. WHERE TO FIND EXAMPLES OF NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? Professional organizations such as the Urban and Regional Information Systems Association (URISA) http://www.urisa.org/ Slide 21

22. WHERE TO FIND EXAMPLES OF NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE NEW EVIDENCE? GIS Day Posters The following URL illustrates how universities, colleges, and other academic institutions could make student GIS Day posters available online. http://www.geomatics.uottawa.ca/gaw09 Slide 22

23. FIRST STEP TO ACHIEVE BETTER DECISIONS? Ask the pointed question: What are the names of the decision-making methodologies that you use when making decisions? Slide 23

24. SECOND STEP TO ACHIEVE BETTER DECISIONS? If an informed answer is not received, repeat the question: What are the names of the decision-making methodologies that you use when making decisions? Slide 24

25. THIRD STEP TO ACHIEVE BETTER DECISIONS? Crank up the juice: If you hear the Humma, Humma, Humma chorus instead of an informed answer, be ready with a list of names of decision methods and techniques to raise the level of the discussion and apply pressure. The following approach may be helpful. Slide 25

26. “CAN’T REMEMBER THE NAMES OF THE METHODS AND TECHNIQUES YOU USE TO MAKE DECISIONS? PERHAPS THIS LIST MAY JOG YOUR MEMORY.” Slide 26 1.Attitudinal Surveys 2.Brainstorming 3.Charrette 4.Committee Approach 5.Comparative Analysis 6.Cost-Benefit Analysis 7.Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 8.Counterfoil Research 9.Cross-Impact Analysis 10.Econometric Analysis 11.Expert Panels 12.Focus Groups 13.Forecasting Delphi 14.Highest and Best Use 15.Impact Assessment 16.Indicators 17.Indexing 18.Input-Output Analysis 19.Life-Cycle Analysis 20. Modelling 21. Normative Delphi 22. Optimization Techniques 23. Panel Evaluation 24. Pilot Study 25. Policy Delphi 26. Pre-Test 27. Referenda 28. Risk Assessment 29.Roundtables 30. Scaling 31. Sensitivity Analysis 32. Simulation 33. Trial Run 34. Workshops

27. GETTING OUR ACT TOGETHER: NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE BETTER DECISIONS? Combine the ways that GIS and GeoSkills provide evidence (Slide 14) with the methods and techniques of rational decision making (Slide 26). Slide 27

28. GETTING OUR ACT TOGETHER: NEW WAYS TO ACHIEVE BETTER DECISIONS? GIS and GeoSkills X Decision Methods and Techniques Slide 28 BETTER DECISIONS =

29. CHALLENGE 1 TO THE GIS AND GEOSKILLS COMMUNITIES: Build a casebook demonstrating how GIS and GeoSkills are combined with decision methods and techniques to produce better decisions. Slide 29

30. CHALLENGE 2 TO THE GIS AND GEOSKILLS COMMUNITIES: Build a casebook demonstrating how GIS and GeoSkills could be combined with decision methods and techniques to produce better decisions. Slide 30

31. CHALLENGE 3 TO THE GIS AND GEOSKILLS COMMUNITIES: Build a casebook demonstrating how GIS and GeoSkills should be combined with decision methods and techniques to produce better decisions. Slide 31

32. CLOSING COMMENT The GIS and Geoskills communities have a distinguished record of devising new ways to achieve new evidence for better decision making. However, Canada faces a number of major social, economic, environmental, governance, and other challenges, and few if any of them are self-correcting. We have much good work yet to do. LET’S GET IT DONE!! Slide 32

33. REFERENCES and SOURCES 1 I wish to acknowledge the contributions made to this presentation by previous presentations and published reports. The following list identifies some of these references, and includes the URLs for the convenience of readers who may wish to examine the original materials. Wellar, B. 2006. Geography and Geographic Information Systems (GIS): New Realities of Canada as an Emerging Information Society. GIS Day Keynote, University of Ottawa. http://www.slideshare.net/ Wellar, B. 2007. Sustainable Transport: Does Anybody Here Know How to Win This Game? Presentation to the Kiwanis Club of Ottawa. http://www.geomatics.uottawa.ca/docs/Kiwani_ST_laggiss.pdfhttp://www.geomatics.uottawa.ca/docs/Kiwani_ST_laggiss.pdf Wellar, B. 2007. Making Weather Connections: From Science to Common Sense, and Public Lethargy to Activism. CMOS Lecture. http://www.slideshare.net/ http://www.slideshare.net/ Wellar, B. 2008. From NASA Satellite Images (1966) to Google Earth (2008): Geography, Geomatics and GIS Have Come a Long Way. Sigma Xi Lecture. http://www.geomatics.uottawa.ca/WellarPresentstheTriple.htm Slide 33

34. REFERENCES and SOURCES 2 Wellar, B. 2009. Sampler of Commentaries on Methods and Techniques that Could be Used in Making Decisions about Identifying, Adopting, or Implementing Sustainable Transport Practices. Transport Canada Project, Research Report 3. http://www.wellarconsulting.com/ http://www.wellarconsulting.com/ Wellar, B. 2009. Core Information Challenges and Opportunities, 2010-2020: Building on Strengths. URISA Annual Conference Keynote Address. http://www.urisa.org/annual/keynotehttp://www.urisa.org/annual/keynote Wellar, B. 2009. Elements of a Framework for GeoSkills as the Focus of New Approaches in Applied Geography Education and Training. Wellar GeoSkills Lecture, University of Ottawa. http://www.slideshare.net/http://www.slideshare.net/ Wellar, B. and W.L. Garrison 2009. Enriching Sustainable Transport Decisions: Inputs from Operations Research and the Management Sciences. Research Report. Berkeley, CA: University of California at Berkeley, Institute for Transportation Studies. Posted at the eScholarship Repository, http://repositories.cdlib.org/its/reports/UCB-ITS-2009-1/http://repositories.cdlib.org/its/reports/UCB-ITS-2009-1/ Acknowledgement. Thanks are given to Sam Herold for the graphics work. Slide 34