1. 1 Mapping China onto the International Landscape of Aging Studies James P. Smith

2. 2 What Will (Mostly) Determine the Future of the World? The Aging of the Population –Mortality rates falling –Birth rates falling –Work rates falling – (hopefully) –The sky is not falling

3. 3 Life Expectancy at Birth

4. 4 Source: Ronald Lee. Life Expectancy at Birth, Fitted (1900–1996) and Forecasted (1997–2096) 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 Life expectancy at birth 97.5 percentile 50 percentile 2.5 percentile 1900 1920194019601980200020202040206020802100 Year

5. 5 Population Ages 60+, Total (Millions) China

6. 6 Percent of Population Age 60+

7. 7 China’s Support Ratio People 25–64/People 65+

8. 8 People 25–64/People (1-24 + 65+)

9. 9 What Will (Mostly) Determine Our Future? The Aging of the Population - SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM Provide income and health security during retirement at affordable budgets

10. 10 What Will (Mostly) Determine Our Future? The Aging of the Population - SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM Provide income and health security during retirement at affordable budgets

11. 11 Government Benefits by Program and Age Amount in 2000 dollars 020406080 Age 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Medicare Social Security Medicaid Other benefits such as public assistance Education Source: Ron Lee

12. 12 Taxes Paid by Age Amount in 2000 dollars 020406080 Age 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Payroll Sales Property Income Other taxes including federal corporate tax charges/fees Source: Ron Lee

13. 13 Projected Fiscal Balance by Level of Government, 2000 to 2100 Source: Ron Lee Federal Ratio of taxes to benefits 200020202040206020802100 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7

14. 14 The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection The USA Health and Retirement Survey - HRS

15. 15 Overview of HRS Nationally representative longitudinal survey of ~20,000 people age 51+ designed to produce public use data Funded mostly by NIA Began in 1992 with the birth cohorts of 1931-41 Two year periodicity Links to administrative records—health and pension Has developed into a steady state design which – Represents U.S. population over the age of 50 – Adds new six-year cohort each six years

16. 16 Core Content Areas in HRS Health Physical/psychological self-report, conditions, disabilities; Cognitive testing Behaviors (smoking, drinking, exercise) Health Services Utilization, expenditure, insurance, out-of-pocket spending Labor Force Employment status/history, earnings, disability, retirement, type of work Economic Status Income, wealth, and consumption Linkage to pensions, Social Security earnings/benefit histories Family Structure Extended family, proximity, transfers to/from of money, time, housing.

17. 17 HRS Longitudinal Sample Design

18. 18 Scientific Productivity of HRS: HRS Publications, 1993-2005: Cumulative Count by Type Cumulative Count: June 15, 2005 Journal Publications 510 Books and Book Chapters 83 Dissertations 59 Working Papers 326 Total 978

19. 19 The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection HRS ELSA (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing) –Two waves completed (2002, 2004)

20. 20 1998199920012002/320032004/52000 HSE (CVD) 5,053 Nurse visit HSE (CVD) 5,053 Nurse visit HSE (ethnic) 2,227 HSE (ethnic) 2,227 HSE (respiratory) 4,549 Nurse visit HSE (respiratory) 4,549 Nurse visit ELSA W1 12,100 Individuals aged 50 or over ELSA W1 12,100 Individuals aged 50 or over ELSA W2 c.10,800 + Nurse Visit ELSA W2 c.10,800 + Nurse Visit ELSA Design Basics

21. 21 ELSA/HSE SES Information HSEELSA02ELSA 04 Employment details+++ Work disability..+ Social class; SEC, SOC etc.+++ Education+++ Housing tenure+++ Banded household income+.. Fully detailed income measure.++ Fully detailed wealth measure.++ Pensions (including data linkage).++ Expectations.++ Consumption items..+ Key: + Available;. Not available

22. 22 ELSA/HSE Health Information HSE98HSE99HSE01ELSA02ELSA 04 Self reported general health+++++ Longstanding illness+++++ CVD conditions+--++ Respiratory conditions--+++ Other specific conditions---++ Blood sample+.+.+ Blood sample analysis+...+ Height and weight+++.+ Blood pressure+.+.+ Walking speed...++ Other physical functioning tests....+ Key: + Available for all (consenting) respondents; - Asked only if respondent reports a long standing illness;. Not asked/collected in the general purpose sample

23. 23 The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection HRS, ELSA SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe) –14 countries in Europe –completed first wave 2004, approved for EU funding of second wave in 2006

24. 24 Introduction to SHARE SHARE: 22,777 individuals aged 50+ in 11 countries –Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland –Ireland, Poland and Czech Republic added in second wave Some 150 researchers Sponsored by EU Additional funding U.S. NIA and national funds Optimal cross-national comparability

25. 25 ELSA

26. 26 What data will be collected? (1) l 1. Health Variables: Self-reported health, physical functioning (ADLs, IADLs, walking speed, grip strength), mental health and cognition, health behaviors and health utilization, insurance coverage. In the longer run: bio-medical data. l 2. Economic Variables: Current work and job characteristics, employment history, pension rights, sources of current income, wealth and consumption.

27. 27 What data will be collected? (2) l 3. Family and Social Network: Family structure, assistance within families, intergenerational transfers of money and time, social networks, time use after retirement. l Psychological data: Expectations, preferences, risk aversion, time horizon l Demographic data: Basics (age, gender, marital status...), housing, education l Data Links: Where available: administrative earnings, social security, employer provided information.

28. 28 The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection HRS, ELSA, SHARE - South Korea, Thailand and Japan all underway

29. 29 The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection HRS, ELSA and SHARE South Korea, China, and Japan all underway Saving the Best for Last China