1. From high school to the future: Potholes on the road to college
Melissa Roderick, Jenny Nagaoka,
Vanessa Coca, and Eliza Moeller
March 12, 2008
Chicago, Illinois
Report available at

2. Meeting a new challenge: CPS Postsecondary Department and the Consortium’s Research Project
Nationwide we’ve seen dramatic increases in the proportion of students aspiring to college:
In 1980, 41 percent of 10th graders aspired to attain a four- year degree.
By 2002, nearly 80 percent of all 10th graders aspired to complete a four-year degree.
The impetus for the work we are doing and for the new CPS Department is something that has changed within our high schools: the vast majority of students now state that their goal is to complete a foru-year college degree. This did not exist when I was in high school in the 80s, at that time going to college was reserved for students who went to magenet schools or programs or the very top students.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

3. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

4. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

5. Why do so many CPS students who aspire to complete a four-year degree not enroll in college?
Human capital explanations:
Constrained access due to qualifications
Social capital explanations:
Constrained participation in college application
Constrained college search
Financial capital explanations
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

6. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
From high school to the future: A first look at Chicago Public School graduates’ college enrollment, college preparation, and graduation from four-year college Roderick, Nagaoka, and Allensworth
Increasing qualifications is the single most important strategy for improving CPS graduates’ likelihood of enrolling in four-year and more selective colleges, and ultimately their likelihood of attaining a degree.
Report available at
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)

7. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Low GPA and ACT scores are seriously constraining CPS students’ access to four-year colleges, particularly African-American and Latino graduates and particularly for males.
Less than a quarter of CPS graduates have access to selective or very selective colleges.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

8. Qualifications alone are an incomplete story…
Schools with similar achievement levels have differing college-going rates
Even students with similar qualifications have differing college-going rates
Latinos are less likely to enroll in college than African-American and White students with similar qualifications
Immigrant status is also an incomplete explanation
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

9. Potholes report: What else explains why students do not enroll in four-year colleges? Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller
1. Constrained application: How effectively are CPS graduates participating in the college application process?
2. Constrained search: Are students identifying, applying to, and enrolling in colleges that meet their levels of qualifications?
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

10. How do we study college application and college search in CPS?
Quantitative: CPS Postsecondary Tracking System (A close look at 2005 graduates)
Senior Exit Questionnaire
2005 Consortium senior surveys and high school teacher surveys
NSC data with corrections for schools not participating in NSC
Qualitative: A longitudinal study of 105 students in three high schools (class of 2006)
Students interviewed 2 times junior year, 3 times senior year– followed through this fall (two years post high school).
All students coded for main patterns of application and enrollment. Qualitative cases and thematic analysis used in the report.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

11. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

12. This presentation focuses on students who:
Were in all data sources
Graduated from CPS in 2005
Were not in special education
Had aspirations to complete a four-year degree N
ACT
GPA
(unweighted)
NSC – 2005 CPS graduates
17,672
17.2
2.3
Potholes Sample: Students in all sources with necessary information, not in special education, AND aspire to at least a 4-year degree
5,194
18.8
2.6
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

13. Question 1: How effectively are students participating in the college application process? – Constrained college application
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

14. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

15. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

16. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

17. Summary: Students do not take steps to translate aspirations into enrollment
Many students who aspire to attain a four-year degree make a decision to begin at a two-year college, particularly Latino students
Many students who plan to attend never apply
Many students who get accepted don’t enroll
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

18. Why should we care if students start at two- rather than a four-year college?
Students who begin at two-year schools have a very low probability of completing a bachelor’s degree
Only 10% of students who begin at a two-year school nationally complete a bachelor’s degree within 6 years.
Of 2005 CPS graduates who began at a two-year college, only 57% were still enrolled in any college a year later.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

19. Our analysis finds that two-year colleges are not a choice but a default...
Enrolling in two-year colleges does not seem to be part of a well-formulated plan
Rather students struggle with the college search and application process, and default to two-year colleges in the absence of guidance and information.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

20. Can high schools make a difference?
The analytic problem: Students who report more support from their high school may be those who want to go to college anyway and may seek out that support.
One approach looks at differences in student outcomes at the school level by the average of student and teacher reports.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

21. Examining the effects of school- and student- level characteristics on the probability of taking each step
Outcome: Probability of taking each step given that a student reached the previous step. Log odds of:
Planning to attend a four-year college given a student aspires to attain a four-year degree
Applying given a student plans to attend
Getting accepted given a student applied
Enrolling given a student is accepted
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

22. Estimate the probability of completing each step (2-level HLM)
Controlling for:
Family background (mother’s education, immigrant status, and neighborhood characteristics)
High school performance (ACT scores and GPA)
Race/ethnicity and gender
Work and involvement in extracurricular activities
Contact with counselors and student reports of parental and teacher support
Exclude selective enrollment high schools, and run analysis separately by race/ethnicity
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

23. Today focus specifically on school-level
High school college-going culture
Four-year college attendance
Teachers’ assessment of college climate
Barbara Schneider “Forming a College Going Culture” (the foundation of a college going culture is in the classrooms through relationships)
In the high school, this translates into shared goals among the staff that all students can go to college, and it is their personal responsibility to try and make that happen... Today, more parents of adolescents, even if they have limited resources or have never been to college, expect that their teenagers will attend college...This expectation is inconsistent among high school teachers. To help promote a consistent message, all teachers in a high school should explicitly articulate the expectation that all students will attend postsecondary school and provide resources and opportunities to make that happen.”
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

24. Today focus specifically on school-level
High school college-going culture
Four-year college attendance
Teachers’ assessment of college climate
Teachers report of the overall expectation and press for college in the school environment. To what extent [in this school]:
Teachers expect most students to go to college
Teachers help students plan for college outside of class time
The curriculum is focused on helping students get ready for college
Teachers feel it is part of their job to prepare students to succeed in college.
Most of the students are planning to go to college
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

25. High school college-going culture
Today focus specifically on school-level culture and student-level participation
High school college-going culture
Four-year college attendance
Teachers’ assessment of college climate
Indicators of students’ effective participation in the financial aid process
Whether students submitted a FAFSA
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

26. School climate matters for whether students plan to attend a
four-year college *
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

27. It matters for whether students are accepted to a four-year college *
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

28. And it matters for whether students who are accepted enroll *
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

29. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

30. But expectations are not enough…
Schools must also ensure that students are taking the steps they need to effectively manage financial aid application
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

31. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

32. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

33. Summary
Many CPS students do not take the steps necessary to enroll in four-year colleges
40 percent of students who aspire to complete a four-year college degree never apply to one.
Planning to attend and apply to a four-year school are major barriers, particularly for Latino students
Teachers and the school environment matter a great deal, especially for students with more marginal qualifications.
Failure to file a FAFSA places students at high risk of not enrolling.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

34. Question 2: Are students effectively searching to find their “best match”? – Constrained college search
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

35. Clara: Highly Qualified for College
International Baccalaureate student
24 on the ACT
3.9 GPA (4.7 weighted)
Class Valedictorian
Puerto Rican descent
Strong family press for college; little history of college-going in family
Access to a very selective college or university
Plans to attend a somewhat selective university
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

36. Clara in Spring of Junior Year Experts Say: College Search
Originally interested in the Illinois Institute of Art
Late in junior year, changes her mind about art school, but is unable to formulate a new plan or college search
Support
Strong family push for college
Had one pivotal suggestion from a teacher
Has not spoken to a counselor
went to the counseling office once and describes staff as “grouchy”
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

37. Clara in Fall of Senior Year Experts Say: College Applications
Plans to complete 8 applications, including Columbia, DePaul, Loyola, UIC, and Northeastern
“Definitely” going to Columbia College
Support
Visiting a lot of colleges with her mom
Has not had a one-on-one conversation with an adult at her school about her plans
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

38. Clara in Winter of Senior Year Experts Say: Applications Finished
Applications/Acceptances
Completed applications at Loyola, UIC, Columbia College, and the Illinois Institute of Art
Accepted to Loyola and “definitely” plans to attend
Finance
Very confused about FAFSA; thought she’d have it done in April/May
Support
Has not seen a counselor
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

39. Clara: I just got signed in for orientation.
In the spring of her senior year, Clara described how she made her final college choice:
Clara: I just got signed in for orientation.
Interviewer: So you’re definitely going to Loyola?
Clara: Uh, [small liberal arts college]. (laughs)
Interviewer: Ah, that’s what I want to know. Last time I talked to you, you were like I mean I’ll give you the list that you told me. ‘Cause Loyola you had been accepted to.
Clara: Yeah. And Columbia. Columbia was like the first.
Interviewer: [Small liberal arts college] is not on this list. Last time you said Loyola, UIC, and Columbia. [Clara: (laughs) Yeah.] What happened?
Clara: Um, well my mom we passed by the school and I’m like this is a nice school. What is that? And then we looked and it’s like [name of small liberal arts college]. So my mom like started looking up stuff she’s like, “I think you’d like this school.” And so we looked at it, the web page and then we signed up for the tour and I was like I really love this school.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

40. Clara at the End of Senior Year
Acceptance/Choice
Going to [small liberal arts college]
Also accepted to Loyola, UIC, Columbia, Illinois Institute of Art, Northeastern, and two city colleges
Finance
Bulk of tuition covered by need- and merit-based aid
Support
Wishes her school made college visits mandatory
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

41. Clara
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

42. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

43. Conclusions
The college application process is overwhelming, even for highly qualified students.
Students engage in very limited and chaotic searches and don’t know how to think about “fit”.
Students have great difficulty managing the financial aid process.
Teacher support and school climate matter a great deal in guiding college enrollment and college match.
Schools must structure this process.
Does college choice really matter for students like Clara? YES
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

44. From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

45. Bottom line Take Home Message 1:
Qualifications will not translate into enrollment if high schools do not provide better structure and support for students in the college search, planning, and application process:
1. Structuring junior and senior year
2. Paying attention to match
3. Financial aid
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller

46. Bottom line Take Home Message 2:
Closing the social capital gap is critical for high school reform. Strong guidance and strong college norms must be both a precursor and essential support for raising achievement.
We cannot ask students to work hard if our graduates could have worked less hard in high school to enroll in the colleges they end up attending.
From High School to the Future: Potholes on the Road to College (2008)
Roderick, Nagaoka, Coca, and Moeller